Myanmar 20250909
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Warning on ASSK’s Health
Rights Groups, Rebels Reject Polls
Junta Courts Beijing at SCO
Junta Pitches China Deals, War Intrudes
Thai Border Trade Slumps
Army Tries to Reopen Asian Highway
US Puts the Hammer on Scam Hubs
Junta Tightens Company Disclosures
Hack Exposes Civil Service Records
Tin Squeeze, Rare Earth Strain
Unions Keep Up Brand Pressure to Exit
Regime Eyes BRICS for Cash, Tech
ASEAN Talks Fires, Plastics, Climate
Warning on ASSK’s Health
Aung San Suu Kyi’s son, Kim Aris, says she asked for access to a cardiologist about a month ago for heart problems, but it isn’t clear what her current condition might be. The junta’s spokesman says the claims are nonsense and that false reports have been fabricated to distract from the leadership’s recent trip to China. ASSK is now 80 years old and is serving a 27-year sentence on charges (that she denies) that were made after the 2021 coup. Calls for her release continue both at home and abroad.
Read more: U.S. News & World Report (health claims), The Irrawaddy (illness report), Myanmar Now (release call)
Rights Groups, Rebels Reject Polls
Human rights groups and resistance forces are still poo-pooing the junta’s planned late‑2025 vote as a sham. FIDH told the UN Human Rights Council that the parties that swept the 2020 vote have been excluded from the upcoming event, that millions of voters have been cut off the rolls, and that new laws have been introduced that mandate prison terms and even the death penalty for election-related “crimes.” The United Wa State Party warned against any campaigning in areas it controls, and the People’s Defence Force says it plans to block polls in resistance-held zones.
Read more: FIDH (UN statement), The Star (Wa warning), Mizzima (PDF stance)
Junta Courts Beijing at SCO
Min Aung Hlaing used his first official China trip since 2021 to try to court recognition and scoop deals. He attended the SCO summit, rode high-speed rail from Tianjin to Beijing, and joined in a WWII parade. Chinese hosts introduced him as “acting president” at the summit. He thanked Xi Jinping for China’s pressure on anti‑regime groups and met with investors to sign seven agreements connected to Belt and Road projects. He railed against “bullying” by powerful nations, bringing his rhetoric into line with some of Xi’s summit remarks.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (trip takeaways), Eleven Myanmar (travel details), The Independent (India meeting), The Irrawaddy (bullying remark)
Junta Pitches China Deals, War Intrudes
The junta pitched Chinese executives on new investment, placing the Kyaukphyu–Kunming rail link at the center of the plan for a China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. It’s big talk, but it isn’t clear that Myanmar can deliver as the war and border closures regularly hamper logistics. The regime is happy to tout billions in recent Chinese inflows, but project execution still runs into security, access, and governance problems. For example, at the moment, only the Muse - Ruili crossing is fully operational. Despite that, the Chengdu investor forum ended with a handful of MoUs, including deals with military-connected companies, and more Beijing pressure for improved security around existing Chinese projects.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (investor doubts), The Irrawaddy (Chengdu forum)
Thai Border Trade Slumps
Trade with Thailand is slowing after the Myawaddy - Mae Sot crossing shut due to fighting (see next story). The junta re-routed trade to the more southerly Kawthaung - Ranong route, which has a daily capacity for fewer vessels and suffers delays for extra inspections. Traders are saying that license approvals are taking longer than they used to, and there’s more scrutiny at ports. Thai-Myanmar trade dropped to $3.3 billion in the first half of 2025. Trade remains exposed to fighting, checkpoints, and changes in governance/ control.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (trade slump), Myanmar Now (route change)
Army Tries to Reopen Asian Highway
The military launched a new campaign to retake the Asian Highway segment between Kawkareik and Thingannyinaung, long held by the KNLA and allies. Troops moved in with rockets, missile trucks, artillery, and airstrikes starting in late August. A junta commander is overseeing a 90-day push to gain access to Myawaddy before the polls (are scheduled to) open on December 28. The Irrawaddy reports the regime was able to recapture parts of the route after reinforcements arrived in early September, but clashes continue. Control over this road is important for both border trade and local military effectiveness in Karen State.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (campaign details), The Irrawaddy (recapture claim)
US Puts the Hammer on Scam Hubs
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned networks behind cyber fraud and forced labor compounds tied to losses of more than $10 billion to Americans. Targets include operators of the Shwe Kokko hub in Myanmar and casino-linked compounds in Cambodia’s Sihanoukville, with Burmese, Cambodian, and Chinese nationals all named. The actions focus on Saw Chit Thu and firms that profit from trafficking and scams with ties to armed groups. Washington’s move comes after a series of designations on Southeast Asian scam zones linked to crypto fraud, pig-butchering, and forced labor.
Read more: The Record
Junta Tightens Company Disclosures
DICA now requires companies to submit bank account details, director IDs, police recommendation letters of office locations, and compliance with foreign director immigration rules. Firms need to email updates on shareholding changes and keep director records up to date. “Inspections” are reportedly planned. The junta says the rules are simply AML/CFT steps against “terrorism” financing connected to the NUG and PDF. DICA also reminded companies of filing duties under the 2017 Companies Law: annual returns within two months of incorporation, share transfer filings within 21 days, and director changes within 28 days. Late fees and penalties apply.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (new rules), VDB Loi (compliance guide)
Hack Exposes Civil Service Records
A mid‑July hack of the Civil Services Affairs Department resulted in the exposure of 27 GB of records, including 37,701 files with names, positions, addresses, and more of 100,000+ non‑CDM staff. The Military Commission closed the barn door by password-protecting office computers and requiring staff acknowledgments of disciplinary risks. The commission has not publicly commented on the breach.
Read more: BNI Online
Tin Squeeze, Rare Earth Strain
Tin markets are on edge as Myanmar’s Man Maw mine is still shut for a “resource audit”. Few people expected it to be out of commission for so long, but two years on, markets are wondering when it will come back online. China’s imports of Myanmar tin concentrates are down 77% year-on-year to 14,200 tons, smelters are run below 70% capacity, and LME three-month tin climbed from about $30k to more than $35,000. Rare earths are a second stress point. China processes 90% of refined output and continues to consolidate its control over Myanmar feedstock. Dysprosium and terbium remain in focus for their defense (weapons) uses.
Read more: MINING.com (tin supply), Asia Times (rare earths)
Unions Keep Up Brand Pressure to Exit
Global union IndustriALL has renewed its call for brands including Bestseller, Next, and Hunkemöller to get out of Myanmar, saying the industry finances the regime and worker rights are not protected. The union uses the ILO’s 2023 Commission of Inquiry findings on forced labor and Article 33 measures that call for supply chain reviews. Some brands claim that they don’t need to leave because they’re able to manage risk with their due diligence.
Read more: Ecotextile (brand pressure), IndustriALL (union demand)
Regime Eyes BRICS for Cash, Tech
Investment minister Kan Zaw said Myanmar is looking into joining BRICS in order to find new financing and technology partners. He told Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum that Myanmar wants to collaborate beyond the region, and sees roles for SCO and ASEAN connectivity. A path to BRICS would go hand-in-hand with current outreach to China and participation in SCO events. Kan Zaw’s statement comes alongside those from other neighbors, including Laos, which have expressed their own interest in the bloc.
Read more: TV BRICS
ASEAN Talks Fires, Plastics, Climate
Myanmar joined ASEAN environment ministers in Malaysia to review progress on haze control, climate issues, and plastics polluting the water. There was reportedly a 25% drop in fire hotspots and haze across the Mekong from December 2024 to May 2025 - good progress on an important quality-of-life issue in the region. Ministers planned for COP-21 of the ASEAN haze pact in Vietnam in 2026 and held the first ASEAN–EU dialogue on plastic pollution treaty talks. ASEAN Plus Three put forward new plans to battle marine plastics and support sustainable consumption to 2030. The Myanmar delegation joined sessions on climate adaptation, biodiversity, and environmental education to learn more and to make sure that it’s doing its part in line with regional programs.
Read more: Mizzima
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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