Vietnam 20250911
Mekong Memo Vietnam Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
Business stories from Southeast Asia directly to your inbox.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Headlines:
Fast-track for Finance Hubs
Big Money Required for 2050 Net Zero
Farm Exports Break Records
Growth Holds, Inflation Risk Builds
US Tariffs Shock Trade
Megaprojects On Track
Energy Pivot for Security and Growth
FDI Rises on Real Estate, But Bets Spread
Regulated Crypto Market Pilot
Bank Ratings Improve, Credit Shifts
Going Digital to Cut Red Tape
Open Gold Market
Better Australian Relations
Retail, F&B Keep Chugging Along
Fast-track for Finance Hubs
The setup of planned International Financial Centers (IFCs) in Ho Chi Minh City and Danang continues, with about $6.88 billion set aside for the HCMC IFC. While HCMC’s offerings are expected to be more full-service/ traditional, Danang will specialize in green finance and fintech. The legal foundations are in place, and the push is on for partnerships, capital market tie-ups, fintech development, and talent development. The plan is to try and bring a few anchor international financial institutions and investments to set the tone for Vietnam as an emerging ASEAN financial hub. It’s a big swing.
Read more: VIR (Strategic Partnerships), The Investor (Registration Benefits), VIR (Global Initiatives), VIR (City Integration), VIR (Development Plan)
Big Money Required for 2050 Net Zero
Vietnam needs to invest almost 7% of GDP annually, about $368 billion, to hit its 2050 Net Zero goals. Four banks have signed on to the IFC’s green alliance, which includes 20 members that manage $5.6 trillion in assets, and the World Bank and Asian Development Bank have committed $12.5 billion for green projects in ASEAN. Huge numbers all around.
Read more: VIR (Banking Alliance), VIR (Financing Strategy), VNExpress (Market Integration), The Investor (ASEAN Projects)
Farm Exports Break Records
Coffee shipments hit 1.2 million tonnes worth $6.42 billion in the first eight months of the year. Volume was up just under 9%, but value spiked almost 60% as prices rose to more than $5,500 a tonne. Durian exports were $1.2 billion in the first seven months - China got 87% of those shipments. Cashews generated $2.8 billion, with China passing the US as the top market. Lychee exports had record revenue of $80 million, tripling last year's number. Overall, agricultural exports were $45.37 billion for the first eight months, a 12% year-on-year increase. Productivity generally is on the rise, but high prices did the most of the heavy lifting.
Read more: VNExpress (Coffee Records), Fresh Plaza (Durian Exports), Eurasia Review (Coffee Analysis), Vietnam News (Cashew Market Shift), Vietnam News (Lychee Trade), Vietnam News (Sector Growth)
Growth Holds, Inflation Risk Builds
The World Bank expects Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth to come in at 6.6%. Hanoi continues to say it wants to find as much as 8.5%. August numbers told a mixed story: exports were up by 14.5% year-over-year, imports rose 17.7%, industrial production grew 8.9%, and retail sales were up 10.6%, but inflation came in higher than ideal at 3.24%.
Read more: Market Screener (August Data), The Investor (Monetary Policy), Market Screener (World Bank Forecast), Fibre2Fashion (Growth Projections), The Investor (Consumer Sentiment)
US Tariffs Shock Trade
Export flows are already shifting on the US-imposed 20% tariff on Vietnamese shipments and 40% tax on transshipments. Rice trade with the Philippines, which typically accounts for more than 40% of Vietnam's rice exports, slowed after a 60-day import suspension. Cashew exports to the US fell 27.5% by volume and 11.7% by value, while shipments to China increased by 29% in volume and 47% in value (as noted above, China is now the bigger market for the nut). The Ministry of Industry and Trade continues to work to reduce dependencies on single markets and diversify export opportunities.
Read more: Vietnam Insiders (Rice Trade), Produce Report (Cashew Shift), Vietnam News (WTO Support), Vietnam News (Market Diversification), VIR (Competitive Strategy)
Megaprojects On Track
Long Thanh airport construction is on track for a technical test flight on December 19. The headline price tag now stands at: $18.7 billion. Phase one is expected to handle 25 million passengers and 1.2 million tons of cargo a year. The ground has been fully cleared, terminal roofing completed, and glass installation is almost done. In Hanoi, authorities gave the go-ahead for Metro Line No.5, a 40km project. Warburg Pincus and Masterise are proposing a $739 million expressway to connect HCMC to the new airport. HCMC also has plans to invest $62 million to modernize its waterway transport system.
Read more: Fresh Plaza (Airport Progress), Vietcetera (Airport Overview), VIR (Hanoi Metro), The Investor (Airport Expressway), Vietnam Insiders (Waterway Upgrade)
Energy Pivot for Security and Growth
The Politburo signed Resolution 70 on September 5, setting a plan for national energy security through 2030 and a vision to 2045. The resolution is much-needed recognition that the nation’s energy supply has to be greater than its demand if sustainable economic growth is going to be found. Along those same lines, regulators continue to consider small modular nuclear reactors to fill the gap - Petrovietnam has already signed an agreement with Westinghouse Electric Company on nuclear power tech. The investment needed by 2030 will be about $136.3 billion if the grid is to meet an anticipated need for 236 gigawatts of installed capacity.
Read more: The Investor (Resolution 70), Vietnam News (Energy Strategy), Asia Nikkei (Nuclear Options), VIR (Digital-Green Balance)
FDI Rises on Real Estate, But Bets Spread
Registered FDI hit $24.09 billion as of July 31, 2025, up 27.3%. Real estate pulled in almost a quarter of new registered foreign investments. China’s manufacturers continue to follow shifting supply chains south as American tariffs hit at home. Ho Chi Minh City announced 17 projects that are eligible for foreign buyers as foreign homeownership regulations are being loosened up. Buyers thus far are mostly South Korean (40%), with purchases from Hong Kong (30%) and China (15%) rounding out the top three.
Read more: VIR (Real Estate FDI), VIR (Hung Yen Investments), Business Times (Manufacturing Shift), VNExpress(Property M&A), VIR (Homebuying Policy)
Regulated Crypto Market Pilot
The government has introduced a five-year pilot program for regulated cryptocurrency trading. Companies that want to play in the space need to have at least VND 10 trillion ($379 million) in charter capital. Foreign ownership is limited to a minority stake (49%) - only Vietnamese-owned companies can issue and trade crypto assets, and all transactions need to be settled in Vietnamese dong.
Read more: Crypto Ninjas (Regulatory Framework), Coin Central (Program Details), The Investor (Official Launch), VNExpress (Market Overview), ICO Bench (Program Analysis)
Bank Ratings Improve, Credit Shifts
S&P Global Ratings upgraded long-term credit ratings for three Vietnamese banks: Vietcombank to BB+ from BB, Techcombank to BB from BB-, and Eximbank to BB- from B+. Vietnam’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment moved up the rankings to group eight from group nine. The State Bank of Vietnam released Circular 14/2025/TT-NHNN to try and encourage credit away what it sees as currently high(er)-risk sectors, especially real estate.
Read more: The Investor (Bank Ratings), Vietnam News (Credit Policies), Vietnam News (Debt Management)
Going Digital to Cut Red Tape
The Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry reported that in under two months, businesses have submitted 220 reports complaining of problems they found in administrative reform laws, decrees, and circulars, including unclear taxation, invoicing, and administrative processes. It will be interesting to see how the government is going to respond/ improve in response to these complaints. Momentum towards digitization now seems to be inexorable - for example, Hanoi currently allows residents to complete more than 750 administrative processes online, including land-related applications.
Read more: Vietnam News (Reform Obstacles), Vietnam News (Online Services), Vietnam News (Automation Center), Open Gov Asia (Digital Transformation)
Open Gold Market
The Vietnamese government ended its state monopoly on gold bullion production with Decree No. 232/2025/ND-CP, effective September 8, 2025. Licensed firms and banks are now allowed to participate in the trade. Eligible players include companies with a minimum charter capital of VND 1 trillion ($38 million) and commercial banks that require VND 50 trillion ($1.9 billion). The State Bank of Vietnam is looking into different models for a national gold exchange, allowing bullion trading, and building a gold exchange in the upcoming international financial center(s). Domestic gold prices are on a tear - up 60.8% this year, handily outpacing global rates.
Read more: Vietnam Briefing (Market Opening), Vietnam News (Gold Exchange Plans), VNExpress (Price Records), VNExpress (Market Scandal)
Better Australian Relations
Australia’s Governor-General Sam Mostyn is on a visit from September 9–12, partly an after-effect of official intra-government ties being upgraded to a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” last year. Two-way trade between Australia and Vietnam stood at just over US$14 billion last year. Australia is Vietnam’s 7th largest trade partner. Total Australian investment into Vietnam stands at $3.38 billion over 864 projects. Vietnam has 93 projects in Australia worth about $551 million.
Read more: Asian News Network (Bilateral Overview), Asian News Network (PM Meeting), VNExpress (US Cooperation)
Retail, F&B Keep Chugging Along
The local F&B market tallied more than 323,000 establishments and $26.1 billion in 2024 revenue - beating the year prior by more than 16%. Foreign brands continue to win market share, standout performances were reported by Haidilao, Jollibee, Lotte Shopping, and AEON Vietnam. It’s a crowded market, but it appears that there’s still plenty of demand.
Read more: Tuoi Tre News (F&B Market), The Investor (Lotte Growth), Marketech APAC (AEON Expansion), Vietnam News (Local Brands)
That’s it for this week!
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— hit reply and help us get better!
Thank you!