Myanmar 20250916
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Chinese Tech Powers Junta Repression
December Elections Again Called a Sham
Military Officers Officially Get Into Politics
Parties Dissolved Ahead of Contested Elections
Pardon for Ethnic Rakhine Politician
Karen State Operations Displace Thousands
ASEAN Engagement Ongoing Despite Violence
Sweden Swaps Myanmar Aid in Favor of Ukraine
SEA Crypto Scams Target Americans
Central Bank Improves Financial Monitoring
Chinese Yuan Allowed for Investment
India Wants Rare Earths From Rebels
Labor Rights Activist Detained
Chinese Tech Powers Junta Repression
Geedge Networks, a Chinese technology company co-founded by Fang Binxing, the "father" of China's Great Firewall, is enabling Myanmar's military junta to monitor 33.4 million internet users in real-time. The company is using a commercial version of China's Great Firewall in Myanmar, allowing physical location identification of mobile subscribers. A leaked dataset of more than half a terabyte of data has allowed for inspection of the operational frameworks of the censorship system, named "Tiangou." A similar system has also reportedly been adapted for use in other countries, including Pakistan, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Chinese involvement), Web Pro News (Leaked documents), Mizzima (User tracking), Interesting Engineering (Censorship technology)
December Elections Again Called a Sham
The junta’s plans to start their elections on December 28 are still in place, but the National Unity Government (NUG) continues to call the whole thing a facade to claim legitimacy and says that it’s only going to result in more resistance. The military has put an end to its four-year state of emergency and martial law in opposition strongholds, but at the same time has put forward new laws that criminalize dissent. One individual has already reportedly been sentenced to seven years of hard labor for criticizing the election plan on Facebook. The junta's poll is expected to exclude 121 constituencies, with no voting to be had in 10 of 14 townships in Arakan State that are controlled by the Arakan Army.
Read more: Fulcrum SG (Electoral laws), The Irrawaddy (NUG response), My Plain View (Dissent punishment), Narinjara (Arakan exclusion)
Military Officers Officially Get Into Politics
Six serving generals from the military plan to run as candidates for the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in the election. The candidates include Lt. Gen Tayza Kyaw, Lt. Gen Soe Tint Naing, Lt. Gen Thet Pon, Lt Gen Phone Myat, Lt-Gen Lin Aung, and Lt-Gen Kan Myint. Former general Aung Lin Dwe, a close aide to junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, is also reportedly a candidate. Roughly 30 military and ex-military players are going to contest the elections, particularly in some of the bigger constituencies in Naypyitaw and other military strongholds. The involvement of so many officers is seen by the opposition as evidence that the junta simply needs the election to try to legitimize its rule.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Parties Dissolved Ahead of Contested Elections
The junta-appointed Union Election Commission (UEC) dissolved four political parties on September 9, 2025, including the National Democratic Force (NDF), Democratic Party of National Politics (DNP), Women Party (Mon), and Union Farmer-Labor Force Party. The NDF was disqualified for “failing to meet the required 50,000 members,” and the others because they weren’t able to set up enough township offices in time. The NDF claims that they have the members, and says it has already put forward a list of more than 88,000 names. After these dissolutions, only 59 of the original 63 registered parties are still eligible to participate.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Disbanded parties), Mizzima (NDF dissolution)
Pardon for Ethnic Rakhine Politician
Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing pardoned Dr. Aye Maung, chairman of the Arakan Front Party (AFP), on September 11, removing a legal block on his candidacy. The pardon removes a 20-year prison sentence for high treason and sedition that was handed to the doctor in 2019. This pardon is now being looked at as confirmation of Dr. Aye Maung's commitment to the junta's political ideology. After the pardon was put forward, the AFP re-registered to participate. The Arakan Army (AA), which is still in opposition to the poll, continues to control much of Rakhine State.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Karen State Operations Displace Thousands
Junta troops are pushing forward in Karen State, particularly in the area from Kawkareik to Myawaddy, resulting in the mass displacement of civilians. Local sources report that junta soldiers have regained control of several important regional roads and bases. Thousands of civilians, including political activists, are getting out of Dodge and moving toward the Salween River and into Thailand. Reports suggest suspected support for the junta has been coming from local ethnic armed groups.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
ASEAN Engagement Ongoing Despite Violence
Several generals took part in ASEAN military meetings early this month despite being barred from top-level summits. Lieutenant General Than Htike and General Tun Aung showed up to represent Myanmar at the 22nd ASEAN Chiefs of Defense Forces Meeting in Malaysia and the ASEAN Air Chiefs Conference in Indonesia. ASEAN continues to press the junta to comply with a Five-Point Consensus to bring an end to the violence, but so far it has mostly just been ignored.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Sweden Swaps Myanmar Aid in Favor of Ukraine
The government of Sweden says will stop sending development aid to Myanmar by the end of June 30 next year in favor of prioritizing support for Ukraine. This decision comes on the heels of the U.S. government's earlier withdrawal of assistance. As part of the phase-out, Sweden's aid agency Sida says that it will allocate $18 million in 2025 and $15 million in 2026 under agreements that are already in place. The decision is going to result in cuts of about $2.65 million annually in funding for independent media and human rights organizations. Understandably, Human Rights Myanmar was vocal in condemning the decision, saying it would have severe consequences for civil society and independent reporting at a time when junta violence is on the rise.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
SEA Crypto Scams Target Americans
The U.S. Treasury Department has slapped sanctions on 19 entities in Myanmar and Cambodia because of their activities that reportedly defrauded Americans of more than $10 billion in 2024. The sanctions put transnational criminal organizations involved in "pig butchering" scams in the crosshairs. Nine entities in Shwe Kokko, Myanmar, and ten in Cambodia were fingered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control. The sanctions specifically target junta-allied Karen warlords, including Saw Chit Thu, and Chinese tycoon She Zhijiang.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Karen warlords), Crypto Rank (Treasury sanctions), Coin Central (Scam operations), The420(Cyber slavery), Bangkok Post (ChatGPT use)
Central Bank Improves Financial Monitoring
Central Bank of Myanmar Governor Daw Than Than Swe told banks and mobile money service providers that they needed to do a better job of watching suspicious transactions and getting reports handed in. New guidelines enforce tighter reporting of suspicious transactions and the processing of large mobile payments through the banking system. Banks were further told that they needed to do a better job of supporting lending in sectors that are conducive to growth, with loss-given-default calculations to be put in place starting during the 2026–2027 fiscal year.
Read more: Eleven Myanmar
Chinese Yuan Allowed for Investment
State Security and Peace Commission Chairman, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has announced plans to allow investments in Myanmar to be denominated in Chinese yuan, the preference of many Chinese investors. The change will also make trade settlements that already happen in yuan and kyat simpler. The Senior General once again directed his ministries to continue to prioritize investment promotion, get a Myanmar-China trade and investment association set up, and figure out how to expand agricultural exports to get more foreign exchange earnings in the door.
Read more: Eleven Myanmar (Yuan investments)
India Wants Rare Earths From Rebels
India is working with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) to try and get its hands on rare earth minerals. The Ministry of Mines is telling state-owned and private firms to extract and transport rare earth samples from KIA-controlled mines for testing in Indian laboratories. The purpose of the testing is to try to get an assessment of the availability of heavy rare earths that are necessary for technology applications. China has recently tightened export restrictions, and India needs to reduce its dependency on China, which currently controls about four-fifths of the global market.
Read more: Swarajya Mag (Kachin collaboration), Stock Twits (Strategic resources), Lowy Institute (Trump administration)
Labor Rights Activist Detained
Union leaders in Southeast Asia's garment industries are under pressure. Myo Myo Aye has been locked up on unspecified (or, maybe more precisely, “unknown”) charges, and worries for her well-being are being raised by organizations including the Clean Clothes Campaign and Human Rights Watch. Her son was threatened at gunpoint during her arrest, and her daughter has also been arrested after she spoke out. Recently, Honeys Garment Industry Limited dropped a longstanding lawsuit that it had against Myo Myo Aye. No acknowledgment or apology has been offered, despite the hardships that the lawsuit caused.
Read more: Sourcing Journal
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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