Vietnam 20250918
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Headlines:
FTSE Upgrade Could Trigger Billions in Inflows
Credit Data Breach Exposes Entire Population
New Digital Asset Framework Brings Big Players
Petrovietnam Plans $24B Eco-Energy Center
IMF, WB Revise Forecasts on Slowing Growth
Universal Health Insurance by 2030
Vingroup Reclaims the Market Cap Crown
Long Thanh Non-Tariff Zone Proposal
E-Commerce Market Booms, Third in SEA
Property Market Recovery Picks Up Speed
Industrial Parks Drive Manufacturing
SG, VN Sign Carbon Credit Agreement
Continuing Push for Public Investment
FTSE Upgrade Could Trigger Billions in Inflows
Vietnam is on the cusp of a possible market upgrade from "frontier" to "secondary emerging" status during FTSE Russell's October 2025 review. A decision is expected to be made on October 8. The first wave of ETF buying could be in excess of $680 million, with total foreign inflows potentially reaching several billion dollars (HSBC estimates up to $10 billion in additional capital). Vietnam has met seven of nine conditions in FTSE's 'Quality of Markets' evaluation framework, and Finance Minister Nguyen Van Thang said he feels confident about the upgrade.
Read more: The Investor (ETF estimates), VIR (Market reforms), Reuters (Minister's comments)
Credit Data Breach Exposes Entire Population
Hackers from the ShinyHunters group have been able to pilfer more than 160 million credit records from Vietnam's National Credit Information Center: personal information about almost every Vietnamese adult. The stolen information includes names, identification numbers, addresses, employment histories, and financial information. Vietnam's central bank confirmed the breach, forcing the Cyber Emergency Response Team to warn against sharing or trading leaked information. Resecurity reported that the attackers took advantage of an unpatched vulnerability in outdated software. The breach is making the Ministry of Public Security's plan to create a national data exchange rethink concerns about data protection and consent.
Read more: Cybernews (Breach scale), Asia Times (Data protection issues), VNPlus (Official confirmation)
New Digital Asset Framework Brings Big Players
A five-year pilot program for regulated cryptocurrency trading through Resolution 05/2025/NQ-CP, was signed by Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc and launched on September 9. The framework requires digital asset activities to be conducted exclusively in Vietnamese dong through licensed companies with a minimum capital of VND 10 trillion ($379 million). Both VPBank and MBBank want to get in on the space; VPBank is putting the finishing touches on a trading platform through its securities subsidiary. International players are also showing interest - cryptocurrency exchange Bybit signed an MOU with Da Nang People's Committee to build out the city's digital asset platform.
Read more: The Investor (VPBank entry), Investing.com (Bybit partnership), The Investor (Market positioning)
Petrovietnam Plans $24B Eco-Energy Center
Petrovietnam has confirmed that it will develop an eco-energy and industrial center in Can Tho city to create an ecosystem of clean energy, green chemicals, and services tied to the Mekong Delta's agricultural strengths. The investment timeline is expected to deliver $2.9 billion by 2030 for industrial gas and sustainable products at the O Mon Power Center, $2 billion by 2035 for gas supply and an LNG port terminal, and $19.4 billion by 2050 for renewable energy at Song Hau Industrial Park and Tran De seaport. The O Mon 1 thermal power plant has started its renovation to switch from diesel to gas.
Read more: The Investor (Investment timeline), The Investor (Plant conversion)
IMF, WB Revise Forecasts on Slowing Growth
The International Monetary Fund now says that Vietnam's economic growth is going to come in below earlier expectations at 6.5%, and then an even lower figure next year. The downgrade comes after a strong rebound in 2024 and early 2025. The main risks continue to be around international trade policies, renewed tensions in global trade, and tighter global financial conditions. These factors are not new, though, and Vietnam was able to muster 7.1% through 2024 and 7.5% in the first half of this year, thanks to healthy exports, supportive policies, and no small amount of national hustle. The IMF says there’s still room for more flexible policy responses. The first real effects of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs that started taking effect in late July are starting to bear down on the economy with a 2% drop in exports to the U.S. and a matching 2% decline in imports from China in August. (Surely this has nothing to do with the U.S. complaints of trans-shipments?) The World Bank has dropped its Vietnam growth forecast for the year to 6.6%, down from 6.8%.
Read more: Fibre2Fashion (Growth forecast), MirageNews (IMF recommendations), NAI500 (Dong flexibility), Foreign Policy (Tariffs, WB)
Universal Health Insurance by 2030
Vietnam wants to do better than a 95% health insurance coverage rate by next year and hopes to deliver universal coverage by 2030 - an achievement that would exempt all citizens from basic hospital fees. Health insurance is being played up as a foundational part of the social security system, with government and social insurance promoting household-based health insurance for wider access. Cardholders will be able to receive emergency treatment at any medical facility while keeping benefits, and may have costs covered up to 100% for care at registered facilities after five years of participation. Minister Đào Hồng Lan said the policy was both groundbreaking and humane.
Read more: VNExpress (Coverage plans), VietnamInsiders (Minister's statement), VNPlus (Implementation timeline)
Vingroup Reclaims the Market Cap Crown
Vingroup has passed Vietcombank to (re-)become the largest market capitalization company in Vietnam as of yesterday, after its stock price rose 3.5 times in the past seven months. Vingroup's market cap hit VND555.3 trillion ($21.05 billion), and Vietcombank's fell to VND541.45 trillion ($20.53 billion). Vinhomes, Vingroup's real estate arm, also saw growth, pulling up third at VND422.65 trillion ($16 billion). For the full year 2025, Vingroup is expecting to deliver revenue of VND300 trillion ($11.37 billion) and a post-tax profit of VND10 trillion ($379.15 million), increases of 58.7% and 89.5% compared to the last year.
Read more: The Investor
Long Thanh Non-Tariff Zone Proposal
The Airports Corporation of Vietnam (ACV) has proposed an integrated air logistics center at Long Thanh International Airport in Dong Nai province to operate as a non-tariff area to make it more attractive as a regional cargo gateway. HANTA2, a consortium including Coteccons Construction JSC, won a $128.1 million contract for the cargo terminal, which is designed to handle 550,000 tonnes annually. The project is expected to be done in just under a year. Coteccons wants to get a bigger piece of more public investment projects as Vietnam will need about $25 billion a year for infrastructure for the next two decades.
Read more: TheInvestor (Logistics hub), VietnamNews (Contract details)
E-Commerce Market Booms, Third in SEA
Vietnam's e-commerce market, valued at more than $25 billion in 2024 and sporting a 20% ACGR, currently sits at third place in Southeast Asia, behind Indonesia and Thailand. Growth has most recently been seen in FMCG (up 62%), home appliances and technology (up 41%), and fashion & accessories (up 39%). The government has a National E-commerce Development Master Plan (2026–2030) that will be supportive of cross-border e-commerce, mostly to support exports. MoMo, Vietnam's e-wallet giant, has hooked up with UK-based iProov to work on improving user security using biometric authentication to protect users against deepfakes and the like.
Read more: VietnamInsiders (Market growth), VietnamNews (Security measures), VIR (Cross-border opportunities)
Property Market Recovery Picks Up Speed
HCMC’s property market is seeing a lift in both buyer interest and prices. The rental market had office spaces and apartments up 24% and 22% in July. Apartment prices in some premium developments are getting as high as an eye-watering VND250 million per square meter, a figure even higher than many landed houses in similar areas. Real estate is also starting to see a revival in meaningful foreign investment, with property-related FDI almost reaching $5 billion in the first half of the year. Malaysian property giants, including SkyWorld Development and UOA Group, continue to make land purchases, mostly in and around Ho Chi Minh City.
Read more: VietnamNews (Market trends), VNExpress (Price comparison), VietnamInsiders (Malaysian investments)
Industrial Parks Drive Manufacturing
Industrial property is also seeing strength on the back of FDI. One of the biggest tailwinds has been found in manufacturing expansion, where nearly $12 billion has been allocated. Dutch developer CTP is investing an even billion euros ($1.1 billion) in new industrial zones. The supply of ready-built factories currently stands at 11 million square meters nationwide with 85% of that space occupied, and average rents range from $4-6 a square meter in the North and $5-7 in the South.
Read more: VietnamNews (Market growth), VIR (Investment trends), VIR (Green initiatives)
SG, VN Sign Carbon Credit Agreement
Singapore and Vietnam signed a carbon trading agreement on the 16th to improve cooperation on climate action. The agreement allows Singapore to buy carbon credits from Vietnam, allowing it to offset emissions while also providing revenue for Vietnam to reinvest in its own climate projects. Singapore plans to allocate 5% of carbon credit proceeds to Vietnam for climate adaptation. This deal is Singapore's second carbon trading agreement in Southeast Asia - the first was with Thailand.
Read more: StraitsTimes
Continuing Push for Public Investment
Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính told purseholders to fully spend public investment funds to support growth during the National Conference on Accelerating Public Investment yesterday. By August 2025, public investment disbursement was only at VNĐ409 trillion (46.3% of the plan). The Prime Minister told ministries and localities to make sure they kept a hand on macroeconomic stability, controlled inflation, and balanced what they could while also remaining focused on promoting growth.
Read more: VietnamNews (PM's directive), VIR (Reform impact)
That’s it for this week!
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