Vietnam 20250925
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Headlines:
Crosshairs Remain on 8.5% Growth
Crypto Trading Pilot From January
PM Wants More Housing to Cool Pricing
E-Commerce Surges, Platforms Shuffle
AI Use Jumps, Skills Lag
Telecom Speeds Climb, 5G Rollout Aggressive
Deals Surge in August
Big Bets on LNG, Renewables
ESG Becomes A Manufacturing Need
Vingroup Cracks TIME List as Economy Hits Stride
China Supports Rail Development for Trade
Market Upgrade Triggers Capital Push
New E-Commerce Rules Tighten
Crosshairs Remain on 8.5% Growth
GDP growth hopes are still pegged towards 8.5% by year’s end. To get there from here, a few things have to go the right way, particularly stronger exports, sustained consumer spending, and public investment. Inflation is expected to stay near 5, but the money supply keeps climbing, and asset bubbles/ currency devaluation risks are on the rise. The current growth drivers, heavily reliant on bank credit, public investment, and exports, is starting to show signs of flagging.
Read more: VNExpress (Growth Targets), VNEconomy (Economic Model), Vietnam News (Monetary Policy)
Crypto Trading Pilot From January
A five-year, regulated crypto pilot is coming. Up to five licensed operators need at least VND10 T (~$379 M) in capital, and foreign stakes will be capped at minority stakes. Vietnam is rated fourth worldwide for cryptocurrency adoption, with an estimated 17M users. South Korean exchanges Bithumb and Upbit already say they’re moving in - Bithumb is partnering with local financial firms, and Upbit is signing a deal with MB Bank. The Law on Digital Technology Industry, effective January 2026, will force platforms to get domestic licenses and settle trades in Vietnamese dong. It’s welcome clarity after a decade of legal ambiguity.
Read more: Blockhead (Regulatory Framework), The Investor (Expert Analysis), Business Korea (Korean Exchanges)
PM Wants More Housing to Cool Pricing
Apartment prices in major cities have risen 5.6% in 2025, but wages are lagging. Median apartments in big cities now average ~VND80 M ($3,028) a square meter, and the average annual salary is VND98.4 M. The outstanding real estate credit balance topped VND4,100 T (~$155.2 B) as of July, up nearly 17% from 2024’s end. Asset bubbles are still a risk as the government continues to support credit growth as it chases its targets (see the first story, above). The PM has promised that faster permits will be forthcoming for developers and told the central bank to make sure that loans are available at reasonable rates.
Read more: Reuters (PM Directive), Korea JoongAng Daily (Market Pressure), The Investor (Credit Balance)
E-Commerce Surges, Platforms Shuffle
Online retail sales increased ~41.5% year-on-year in H1 to VND202.3 T (~$7.96 B). The digital slice of GDP was ~18.3% last year and will probably close out the year making up at least a fifth of GDP, and heading beyond a third by 2030. Hanoi is even opening an official store on Shopee to increase the capital’s GRDP share to 30% by 2025.
Read more: VNEconomy (Market Growth), Vietnam News (Government Initiative), Vietnam News (Digital Transformation)
AI Use Jumps, Skills Lag
AI adoption has risen quickly for businesses, with the rate of use rising from 13% to 18% in just a single year. Among companies that have folded AI into their business processes, 61% say they’ve seen average revenue gains of 16%. Startups are at the front of the pack: 55% are using AI compared to 41% of big firms, and just over a third say they’re shipping new AI-heavy products. The choke point right now is talent. More than half of businesses say they can’t find qualified people, and some say they’d be willing to pay handsomely if they could find staff with the right skills. Vietnam currently sits 44th on the 2025 Global Innovation Index and tops the world for creative goods exports.
Read more: Vietnam News (Growth Statistics), Market Screener (AWS Research), OpenGovAsia (Innovation Ranking)
Telecom Speeds Climb, 5G Rollout Aggressive
Vietnam is 10th globally for fixed broadband internet speeds, the highest ranking it has been awarded since Ookla’s Speedtest Global Index was introduced in 2017. Viettel, impressively, placed 3rd worldwide for fastest mobile network (over 3G, 4G, and 5G), and VinaPhone ranked 2nd for fastest 5G Mobile Network in H1 2025. VietnamPlus reports, maybe somewhat confusingly, that fixed broadband is now available to almost a quarter of the population and fiber can now be found in ~85% of homes. 5G coverage sits at 11,000 base stations, available to 26% of the population as of May, with expectations of 68,000 stations by year-end.
Read more: VietnamPlus (Broadband Rankings), VNEconomy (5G Deployment), VNEconomy (Digital Vision)
Deals Surge in August
August 2025 saw 18 M&A deals worth about $2.23 B. Headliners: VinFast’s ~$1.5 B restructuring, SSG Group’s acquisition of 11.92% of Seaprodex for ~$20 M, and HD Korea Shipbuilding acquisition of Doosan Vina for ~$210 M. LG Innotek was able to secure a ~$200 M sustainability-linked loan from the World Bank’s IFC to expand manufacturing in Hai Phong and double camera module output. The company says that it has already converted nearly 60% of its global electricity usage to renewables.
Read more: The Investor (M&A Transactions), The Investor (LG Expansion)
Big Bets on LNG, Renewables
PV Gas won approval for a billion-dollar North Central LNG Terminal in Ha Tinh province. Phase one will have potential for production of 1–3 M tons of LNG annually by 2029–2030. Vĩnh Long province wants to be a clean energy center in the Mekong Delta with potential in excess of 22,100 MW; 13 currently operational wind projects already generate ~573 MW. A 50,000-hectare green hydrogen plant in the Định An Economic Zone is planned to produce 48,000 tonnes of the stuff a year, in addition to nearly 400,000 tonnes of oxygen.
Read more: The Investor (LNG Terminal), Vietnam News (Renewable Hub), VietnamPlus (Nuclear Commitment)
ESG Becomes A Manufacturing Need
Rules from the EU and US are turning ESG from a nice-to-have into a must-have. The plastics industry is being forced to make a turn towards sustainability through recycling, bioplastics, and more eco-friendly products. Mavin Group has signed Vietnam’s first sustainability-linked loan for swine farming with HSBC Vietnam and says it is going to find cuts in energy use, water, and antibiotics.
Read more: VIR (Manufacturing Standards), Vietnam News (Plastics), VIR (Sustainable Agriculture)
Vingroup Cracks TIME List as Economy Hits Stride
Vingroup is Vietnam’s first entry on TIME’s World’s Best Companies 2025, and its success has come in parallel with a national economic transformation that’s been nothing short of remarkable. National GDP should pass half a trillion USD next year, income has risen from under $100 a head in 1986 to more than $5,000 today, and extreme poverty has been almost eliminated, dropping from about half the population to 1%.
Read more: Motoroids (Vingroup Ranking), Vietnam News Agency (Economic Transformation)
China Supports Rail Development for Trade
A feasibility study is underway for the Lào Cai–Hà Nội–Hải Phòng standard-gauge railway line, and a technical assistance agreement has been signed between Vietnam’s Ministry of Construction and China’s Ministry of Commerce to make sure it comes into being. Central Vietnam’s Nghe A province alone drew 64 Chinese FDI projects worth ~$4.1B, making up 70% of FDI money for its economic zones and industrial parks.
Read more: Vietnam News (Railway Cooperation), VNEconomy (Nghe An Investment)
Market Upgrade Triggers Capital Push
Major securities firms, including SSI Securities, Techcom Securities, and VPBank Securities, are working to increase lending capacity. The government approved a market upgrade plan on Sept 12 that should put the market on the path to getting FTSE Russell’s secondary EM status by EOY, and then will look for MSCI emerging market status. Necessary changes include easing foreign participation restrictions, simplifying trading account processes, an Omnibus Trading Account mechanism, and a move to International Financial Reporting Standards. The State Bank of Vietnam has also told commercial banks to streamline account opening for foreign investors.
Read more: Vietnam News (Capital Raising), VNEconomy (Market Upgrade Plan), TheInvestor (Foreign Investor Access)
New E-Commerce Rules Tighten
The Ministry of Industry and Trade is drafting a new e-commerce law to improve accountability for online sellers and livestreamers, requiring identity verification through VNeID. E-commerce platform operators will have to verify domestic sellers and monitor livestreams in real-time. Service providers will also be required to identify affiliate marketers. The draft prohibits providing false information about products and promoting unqualified items on digital platforms. Public services are going online too, with platforms like E‑Office streamlining administrative tasks and QR-coded applications allowing for a ‘one‑stop’ service center. The new e-commerce law should be presented for review to the National Assembly in October.
Read more: Asian News Network (E-Commerce Law), Asian News Network (Digital Administration)
That’s it for this week!
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