Thailand 20251003
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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Confrontations Continue on Border Tensions
PM Anutin Plans Revival as Economy Sputters
Strong Baht Threatens Exports and Tourism
Credit Outlook Downgrade
Tourism Challenges From Global Competition
Former PM Thaksin Seeks Royal Pardon
Infrastructure Projects Fast-Tracked
Labor Law Change for Fewer Hours, More Leave
Forest Amnesty Bill Questioned
Recognition for Child Labor Prevention Efforts
Myanmar Refugees Now Eligible for Thai Work
Renewable Energy Push
NSC Investigating Corruption in Call Centre Scams
Aging Population a Threat to Stability
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Confrontations Continue on Border Tensions
Tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border are still running high with the swap of gunfire. The conflict is centered on disputed forest areas - Thailand has posted trilingual eviction notices in the area that order Cambodian villagers living there to get out within 15 days. The Thai National Security Council is keeping border checkpoint closures in place and telling Cambodia to put forward an evacuation plan by a week from today. Reports about Chinese weapons supplied to Cambodia have caused Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow to ask for clarification from the Chinese Embassy even as Thai Defense officials say that the claims are “old news.”
Read more: Khaosodenglish (Border Clashes), Khaosodenglish (Eviction Notices), Nation Thailand (Military Talks), Nation Thailand (Chinese Weapons)
PM Anutin Plans Revival as Economy Sputters
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul delivered his policy agenda to parliament, showing that he plans to put economic revival on the front burner during his four-month term before his promised January 2026 elections. Pillars of his plan include support for those who hold debts below 100,000 baht, providing liquidity for small businesses, and getting a 47-billion-baht co-payment scheme off the ground. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the Thai economy is “heading off a cliff” with sputtering exports, negative private consumption growth, and lagging private investment. Government stimulus is expected to add a measly 0.2% to GDP growth this year.
Read more: Reuters (Policy Agenda), Bangkok Post (Finance Minister), Bangkok Post (Growth Impact)
Strong Baht Threatens Exports and Tourism
The Thai baht has risen nearly 7% against the USD this year, its highest level in four years. It’s becoming a cause for worry about the impact it will have on exports and tourism. SCB EIC says the baht’s strength will weaken Thailand’s competitiveness even further, especially compared to Vietnam, whose currency has gone the other way, depreciating 3.5% over the same period. The central bank is also considering other ideas to stem the currency’s rise, including taxes on gold trading and the narrowing of the interest rate spread between loans and deposits. That currently stands at 5-7% compared to 2% in neighboring countries. Good for banks, not so hot for everyone else.
Read more: Reuters (Gold Tax), Channel News Asia (Economic Impact), Bangkok Post (Competitiveness), Bangkok Post (Interest Rates)
Credit Outlook Downgrade
Thailand is probably about to get slapped by another credit outlook downgrade, with S&P Global expected to drop the country’s outlook to ‘Negative’ in November, following similar calls by Fitch and Moody’s. These revisions come because of concerns about political risks and eroding fiscal capacity. The Asian Development Bank cut Thailand’s GDP growth forecast to 2% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026 on export deceleration, slow tourism numbers, and exhausted private consumption. The Bank of Thailand will likely stay the course on its easing monetary policy until the end of 2026, with a 50 basis point reduction in the benchmark policy rate.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Credit Outlook), Bangkok Post (ADB Forecast), Bangkok Post (Interest Rate Cuts)
Tourism Challenges From Global Competition
The tourism industry is expecting a 20% revenue decline for 2025 compared to 2019 levels, with revenue derived from visitors from abroad expected to drop from 1.91 trillion baht to 1.52 trillion baht. Chinese tourist arrivals during the Golden Week holiday (October 1-8) are expected to be down by almost a quarter and revenue down almost a fifth. Six major Thai airlines (Thai Airways, Bangkok Airways, Nok Air, Thai AirAsia, Thai Lion Air, and Thai Vietjet) have launched a “Buy International, Free Thailand Domestic Flights” program that makes 200,000 free domestic tickets available to international travelers to try and get them to extend their visits into lesser-known regions.
Read more: Travel and Tour World (Revenue Decline), Yahoo News Malaysia (Chinese Tourists), Travel and Tour World (Free Flights)
Former PM Thaksin Seeks Royal Pardon
Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra put forward a petition for a royal pardon on September 29 for his one-year prison sentence. Thaksin was jailed earlier in September after the Supreme Court decided that he did not properly fulfill the conditions of his original prison term because of an unauthorized six-month hospital stay after his return from self-exile. Originally sentenced to eight years for conflicts of interest during his 2001-2006 term at PM, his sentence was later reduced to a single year in an act of clemency by the king. Related to this same drama, the Police General Hospital chief has been moved to an inactive post because he received a six-month suspension of his medical license for allegedly cooking up false medical information to help Thaksin spend time in the hospital instead of jail.
Read more: Reuters (Pardon Petition), US News (Legal Context), Bangkok Post (Hospital Chief)
Infrastructure Projects Fast-Tracked
The State Railway of Thailand is pushing rail projects, including Red Line extensions, the Thai-China High-Speed Rail, and double-track lines on southern routes. The government says it will finish these projects ahead of schedule, but still with transparency and public safety in mind. The “Land Bridge” project, a proposed 90-kilometer transport corridor between Ranong and Chumphon, is still getting flak from opposition parties who question its economic viability and environmental impact.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Rail Projects), Bangkok Post (Land Bridge Criticism)
Labor Law Change for Fewer Hours, More Leave
The House of Representatives has approved first readings of two new labor bills. The first bill reduces the standard work week down to 40 hours for general labor and 35 hours for those who’re doing dangerous work. It also mandates at least 10 days of annual leave for workers who have notched 120 days of service. The second bill disallows discrimination based on sex and gender identity as well as introduces family care leave, breastfeeding facilities, and menstrual leave for female staff. The changes are in alignment with International Labour Organisation standards and are similar to policies that are already being used in Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam.
Read more: HR Sea India Times (New Bills), People Matters (Worker Rights)
Forest Amnesty Bill Questioned
Critics are pushing back on a proposed forest amnesty bill that’s being led by the People’s Party and Prachachat Party. The bill, currently in its second reading, would give land rights to more than 10,000 people who’ve been prosecuted for forest encroachment since the 2014 coup. Much of the concern is over what it would mean for state authority and forest protection. Opponents think that it could result in the nullification of existing conservation laws, the undermining of agencies like the Department of National Parks, and make changes to foreign land ownership rules easier.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Recognition for Child Labor Prevention Efforts
A “Significant Advancement” rating was given to Thailand by the US Department of Labor in their most recent report on child labor efforts. The improvements are being credited to successful collaboration between the government, the private sector, and civil society. Measures that reportedly have been especially helpful include Ministerial Regulation No.15 (2024), which provides new labor protections to domestic workers and prohibits children under 15 from engaging in domestic work. Other programs have provided citizenship to 477,000 stateless residents, including 142,000 children, improving their access to education and reducing their risk of exploitation.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Myanmar Refugees Now Eligible for Thai Work
The Thai government says that Myanmar nationals in refugee camps are now allowed to register for work permits, the result of a cabinet resolution intended to relieve labor shortages. About 42,600 adult refugees are eligible; about 12,000 say they’re interested in finding a job. Employers have registered 6,152 job vacancies that will be made available in construction, electronics, agriculture, and food production. The Prime Minister said that the refugees will be allowed to work legally for a year.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Work Permits), Bangkok Post (Government Decision)
Renewable Energy Push
Thailand could save $1.8 billion in power generation costs in the years from 2026 to 2037 by increasing solar capacity by 89% and battery storage capacity by 60% above what the current Power Development Plan targets. The additions would require 32 GW of new solar and 6 GW of new battery storage while removing 2 GW of gas-fired capacity, resulting in 11% lower natural gas use and removing the need for 2.4 million tonnes of coal consumption. The controversy over the Mae Moh coal power plant, Thailand’s largest CO2 emitter, shows no signs of abating as the National Energy Policy Committee has delayed its decommissioning. The plant is now expected to run until at least 2031.
Read more: Asian Business Review (Cost Savings), Mongabay (Coal Plant), Bangkok Post (Reliability Issues)
NSC Investigating Corruption in Call Centre Scams
Thailand’s parliamentary security committee is looking into connections between politicians, corporations, and international call centre scam networks after the flight of Benjamin Mauerberger, identified as a leader of a Cambodian scam gang. The committee has called on Deputy Prime Minister Thamanat Prompow to check in, due to his ties with the suspect, while Minister Chaichanok Chidchob is being asked to clarify allegations of taking a 40 million baht bribe to drop prosecutions against scam gangs. The investigations come as the Bank of Thailand has frozen more than 3 million bank accounts in response to alleged fraud, particularly “mule accounts” that are used in scams involving fake investments and phishing.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Security Investigation), Web Pro News (Account Freezes), Whale Hunting (Allegations)
Aging Population a Threat to Stability
Thailand officially became a “fully aged society” in 2024, with record-low birth rates and a fast-growing elderly population creating demographic problems. As attitudes toward parenthood continue to change, 2024 saw only about 460,000 babies born, the lowest number counted in more than 70 years. By 2033, the elderly are expected to make up more than a quarter of the total population, causing labor shortages and the need for higher welfare spending. The shrinking workforce and unfavorable dependency ratios are a threat to growth, and with both productivity and the size of the market expected to get smaller, Thailand’s regional competitiveness is in doubt. The government is trying new solutions, including converting lottery losses into retirement savings through a “Quick Big Wins” (again: LOL) program.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Economic Impact), iGaming Today (Retirement Savings), Asian News Network (Elder Debt)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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