Myanmar 20251007
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Junta Elections Still Have a Legitimacy Crisis
Junta Retakes Kyaukme
Arakan Army Moves on Munitions Plant
Youth in Crisis as Opportunities Vanish
Humanitarian Crisis Worsens Across Country
Thailand Opens Labor Market to Refugees
Energy Sector Looks to Infrastructure Upgrades
China Tightens Digital and Economic Grip
Regional Co-op and International Engagement
Human Rights and Justice
Junta Elections Still Have a Legitimacy Crisis
The junta’s planned December 28 election remains under fire as a sham designed to try to legitimize military rule. Senior USDP official “Bullet” Hla Swe admitted voter rolls are riddled with errors, saying that hundreds of names he checked were inaccurate, including people who are already dead. Arakan Army chief Tun Myat Naing said the election can’t be legitimate without the release of detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Most Western democracies have condemned the exercise, but junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has ramped up international travel to shore up support from China, Russia, Thailand, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Voter Roll Errors), The Irrawaddy (AA Chief Statement), The Irrawaddy (Security Apparatus), The Irrawaddy (IDP Coercion), Bangkok Post (International Travel), The Japan Times (Diplomatic Push)
Junta Retakes Kyaukme
The junta reclaimed full control of Kyaukme in northern Shan State on October 2 following a 21-day counteroffensive against the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The offensive involved intense fighting, including artillery and drone strikes. Several government buildings, including a police station and fire service office, burned during the fighting, with witnesses contradicting regime claims by stating fires resulted from drone attacks rather than TNLA actions. The regime says it’s going to “rehabilitate” the town and allow residents over 18 to participate in the election. Kyaukme is on a very important trade route between China and Myanmar, and was previously captured by the TNLA in early August 2024.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Military Recovery), The Diplomat (Strategic Context), Mizzima (Fighting Details), The Irrawaddy (Post-Capture Operations)
Arakan Army Moves on Munitions Plant
The Arakan Army was able to win the Gokkyi outpost (a supply hub for the regime base at Nat Yay Kan) from junta forces on October 1 after a three-day battle. The fall of Gokkyi has increased vulnerability for the junta base that supplies the Pakokku Military Munitions Plant. Resistance reports indicate the junta is struggling to send reinforcements, with many getting ambushed along the way. The AA has pushed firmly into central Myanmar, coordinating efforts with regional resistance groups and now controls 14 of Rakhine’s 17 townships.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Outpost Capture), Narinjara (Captured Soldiers)
Youth in Crisis as Opportunities Vanish
A UNDP report released five days ago shows there’s an education and employment crisis facing Myanmar’s youth, who make up more than a third of the population. Nearly 4 million youth (one in four) are unemployed, with rates as high as 50% Kayah and 40% in Rakhine. More than 5 million youth aged 18-24 (75%) are pulling out of the education system, a rate that rises to 80% in rural areas. Almost a quarter of young women drop out of school due to household responsibilities, and they earn 22% less than men.
Read more: Eco-Business (Report Overview), UNDP (Report) Mizzima (Survey Findings)
Humanitarian Crisis Worsens Across Country
The UN says that more than 3.6 million people are out of their homes as of this month, with only 12% of required aid funding raised, making Myanmar one of the world’s most underfunded humanitarian crises. An estimated half-million plus children are expected to be undernourished, with fewer than 2% of those with acute malnutrition able to get treatment. The UN figures that 16 million people across Myanmar are acutely food insecure. Market conditions are such that supplies continue to dwindle even as prices soar, forcing some families to resort to leaves and roots for survival.
Read more: In Shorts (Displacement Figures), Mizzima (Rakhine Hunger), Relief Web (Market Assessment)
Thailand Opens Labor Market to Refugees
Thailand has approved refugees’ right to work starting from the first of this month in 43 Thai provinces for 12 months. Saw Kaw Htoo of the Karenni Refugee Committee said that almost a third of the Myanmar refugee population is able to work outside camps, but also indicated that there’s still a need for more cultural and legal preparation before they start working. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has introduced the measure in response to workforce shortages that are due to the exodus of Cambodian workers after conflicts on that border. More than 100,000 displaced Myanmar nationals currently live in Thai camps that have been running for more than thirty years.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Policy Details), Mizzima (Implementation), The Irrawaddy (Refugee Response)
Energy Sector Looks to Infrastructure Upgrades
Energy Minister U Ko Ko Lwin said Myanmar could increase power production by more than 30% by protecting against natural gas losses. Approximately 85% of Myanmar’s natural gas consumption is used to create electricity. The ministry has introduced plans for upgrading and replacing infrastructure and improving monitoring systems to reduce gas wastage from aging pipelines, low performance of equipment, and inaccurate metering systems. Work together with the Ministry of Electric Power is in progress to replace inefficient generators and install higher-performance machines in existing power plants. The minister also met with a Qatari delegation led by former Deputy Prime Minister Dr. Khalid Bin Mohammed Al Attiyah on October 2 to talk about cooperation in Liquefied Natural Gas and to see if there is an opportunity for Myanmar to set itself up as an LNG Trading Hub for imports to China and elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
Read more: The Star (Gas Losses), Myanmar TV (Pipeline Upgrades), Myanmar TV (Qatar Cooperation), The Irrawaddy(Investment Talks)
China Tightens Digital and Economic Grip
In September, junta leadership ran a diplomatic dog and pony show across China. The Central Bank of Myanmar’s governor endorsed cross-border settlements in digital RMB, giving a financial lifeline to businesses in response to sanctions and general economic instability. Myanmar’s involvement in China’s Digital Silk Road and AI technologies could lead to long-term dependence on Chinese systems, causing fears that sovereignty could be sacrificed in the process. Min Aung Hlaing visited Kunming on September 29 for talk on restoring border trade between Myanmar and Yunnan Province and on projects under China’s Belt and Road Program. China is increasingly pushing Myanmar to restore disrupted trade, which, in better times, generated millions daily.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Digital Integration), The Irrawaddy (Border Trade), Nikkei Asia (Military Support)
Regional Co-op and International Engagement
Myanmar took part in the 47th ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry Meeting from October 1-3 in Manila, where Union Minister U Min Naung reported on 16 processes relating to food security and endorsed the ASEAN Food, Agriculture and Forestry Strategic Plan of Action (2026-2030). A Myanmar delegation led by Union Minister Dr Wah Wah Maung took part in the International Industrial Exhibition “INNOPROM.Belarus” in Minsk from September 29 to October 3, where the Joint Committee meeting worked on agreements for engineering, agriculture, healthcare, science & technology, education, culture, and tourism.
Read more: GNLM (ASEAN Meeting), Myanmar TV (Belarus Visit), Belta (Political Consultations), Belta (Dairy Exports)
Human Rights and Justice
Justice for Myanmar was named a laureate of the Right Livelihood Award on October 1, 2025, recognizing its efforts to promote peace, justice, and sustainability. The award honors the courage of the Myanmar people in pushing back against the military junta nearly five years after the coup. Representatives of the Myanmar Accountability Project and victims of the Pazigyi Massacre arrived in Turkey to give evidence to the Chief Prosecutor in Istanbul. Tun Aung Shwe of the National Unity Government will present findings from the Pazigyi Massacre on April 11, 2023, where 157 civilians were killed. Kim Aris, son of detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, is now publicly asking Chinese President Xi Jinping to pressure Myanmar’s military junta for his mother’s release, saying her health continues to dangerously deteriorate in poor prison conditions.
Read more: Mizzima (Right Livelihood Award), Mizzima (Turkey Justice), Singapore News (Suu Kyi Health), Vision Times (Medical Concerns)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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