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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Border Gambit Gets a Reality Check
Climate Bill Coming Due at 14% of GDP
Energy Ambitions Get 720 Billion Baht
Gaming Industry Levels Up on Digital Squeeze
AI Revolution Hits a Skills Wall
Central Bank Keeps Easy Money Train Rolling
Stimulus Blitz For a Q4 Revival
Chinese Investment Tops Japanese
Land Bridge Dreams Meet Village Reality
Migration Window Opens for 700,000 Workers
Strong Baht Squeezes Tourism Appeal
Political Theater Gets Fresh Scripts
Fishing Nets Shrink, Lawsuits Expand
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Border Gambit Gets a Reality Check
PM Anutin Charnvirakul wants voters to weigh in on two murky border deals with Cambodia, apparently forgetting that 70% of the public has no clue what MoU 43 and 44 even mean. The opposition is having none of it, saying that complex international agreements aren’t appropriately adjudicated as a popularity contest. The military is building a 15-kilometer fence along the frontier, presumably to keep the confusion contained? The Navy, ever dramatic, swears that “not a single inch” will be surrendered, but the whole story gets a new perspective when viewed through the lens of this week’s “must read” opinion on the military’s long game from former The Nation Thailand editor Supalak Ganjanakhundee in Prachatai.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Referendum Plan), Bangkok Post (Opposition Response), Bangkok Post (Border Infrastructure), Bangkok Post (Fence Construction), Prachatai English (Manufactured Conflict)
Climate Bill Coming Due at 14% of GDP
The World Bank just delivered the kind of forecast that might make a finance minister reach for Tums: 7-14% of GDP could evaporate by 2050 if the country doesn’t get serious about getting ready for more climate change. A single degree rise in Bangkok temperatures could result in losses of up to 123 billion baht, and coastal erosion threatens to destroy a billion dollars annually from tourism coffers by the mid-2040s. If there’s a silver lining, it is that apparently throwing 219 billion USD at flood mitigation and renewable energy could grow GDP by 2-5%.
Read more: Vietnam Plus (GDP Impact), Eco-Business (Legislative Push)
Energy Ambitions Get 720 Billion Baht
The Energy Ministry is putting 720 billion baht toward solar power and carbon capture schemes, hoping to get to net-zero emissions 15 years ahead of schedule. The government wants to see 51% renewable energy by 2037, though think tank Ember says that they need an almost doubling of solar installations to make it work. Data centers can now buy green power directly if they use at least 50 MW. Bangchak Corporation is chasing the e-fuel dream with a $30 million purse, despite watching Japan’s ENEOS squeeze out exactly one barrel daily - a production rate that’s unlikely to cause any upset with OPEC.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Investment Targets), Reccessary (Data Center Strategy), Bangkok Post (E-Fuel Initiative)
Gaming Industry Levels Up on Digital Squeeze
The government is getting rules drafted for online social games and their gambling-adjacent features, expecting a jump in revenue from 40 billion to 100 billion baht within a decade. The Digital Economy Ministry is taking aim at foreign e-commerce giants that currently hog the market, and the Bank of Thailand is getting white-label ATM licenses ready for next year. Unfortunately for freedom, it looks like cash is heading for extinction: projections see its use shrinking from 31% of banking to as little as 10% in five years as the trend towards digital continues.
Read more: Sigma World (Gaming Regulations), Bangkok Post (E-Commerce Competition), The Thaiger (ATM Licensing)
AI Revolution Hits a Skills Wall
Nearly half of businesses claim they can’t adopt AI because their staff can’t figure it out. While 600,000 businesses are dabbling in AI, only 16% of big companies are doing anything interesting with it. The tech added $3.3 billion to GDP last year, adopters said they were able to get 17% revenue increases on its use. The government’s response is to train 100,000 workers using a 10 billion baht fund - though whether that’s enough to fill the gap remains an open question.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Skills Shortage), Bangkok Post (Training Initiative)
Central Bank Keeps Easy Money Train Rolling
The Bank of Thailand’s monetary easing party will roll on through 2026, with rates currently at 1.50% and probably headed for 1.00%. They’ve cut inflation forecasts to zero, but are insistent that there’s definitely no deflation - just prices taking a breather (pining for the fjords?). GDP growth expectations have been trimmed: 2.2% for 2025, 1.6% for 2026. Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun is working on the negotiation of trade rules with Washington and hopes to have a deal by year-end. European FTA talks are ongoing.
Read more: Intellinews (Easing Policy), Bangkok Post (Inflation Outlook), Investing.com (Trade Negotiations)
Stimulus Blitz For a Q4 Revival
The “Khon La Khrueng Plus” scheme is airdropping 44 billion baht on 20 million Thai citizens, whereby the government pays half (of some of) their shopping bills through year-end. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas thinks this could goose Q4 growth from an anemic 0.3% to a slightly less flaccid 0.6-0.7%. The Revenue Department is pushing 160 billion baht in VAT refunds out the door to improve business cash flow. Tourists will be able to get double tax deductions of up to 40,000 baht for their efforts exploring Thailand beyond Bangkok, and 8 billion baht is being spent to convince them that secondary cities exist.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Stimulus Package), Bangkok Post (VAT Refunds), Travel and Tour World (Tourism Tax Breaks)
Chinese Investment Tops Japanese
Electric motorcycle maker YADEA just crowned Thailand its ASEAN production champion, and plans to make 600,000 units within three years and create more than 500 jobs at Bang Sao Thong. Amata Corporation’s estates now house more than 400 Chinese firms in 1,600 factories, with 98% reportedly profitable - a figure that seems suspiciously rosy. Chinese investment has now risen higher than Japan’s investment over the past year.
Read more: Yicai Global (ASEAN Hub), iMotorbike News (YADEA Expansion), VnExpress (Crypto Development)
Land Bridge Dreams Meet Village Reality
Chumphon’s Phato district residents aren’t buying what the Land Bridge megaproject is selling. About 200 villagers showed up to share their fears about their local economy, saying that only a quarter of them actually had land titles that might protect them from expropriation if the land bridge goes ahead. The People’s Party says that the Southern Economic Corridor plan is a rights violation wrapped in development rhetoric. Separately, but still in the infrastructure department, Transport Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn has been out and about this week trying to reassure everyone that the planned Don Mueang, Suvarnabhumi, and U-Tapao airport link project has not been cancelled.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Land Bridge Opposition), Bangkok Post (Airport Rail)
Migration Window Opens for 700,000 Workers
The Labour Ministry is offering legal status to up to 700,000 undocumented migrants from neighboring countries during an October 15-29 registration window. The opportunity comes as thousands of Cambodian workers have fled Thailand, and their numbers have dropped from well over a million to 490,534 since June’s border conflict erupted. The government is juggling a four-point labor strategy, and calls are coming from some quarters for a raising of the retirement age from 60 to 65.
Read more: Khaosod English (Registration Window), Khaosod English (Worker Decline), Bangkok Post (Retirement Age)
Strong Baht Squeezes Tourism Appeal
The baht has moved up 8% against the dollar, supported by a 70% gold export boom that’s been worth 254 billion baht. The currency’s rise is making Swiss, Singaporean, Chinese, and Indian tourists think twice about how to spend their beach budgets. Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun blames Fed rate cuts and capital inflows for the pain. The tourism industy pivot to “high-end experiences” continues, and India has stayed strong as a surprise player, bringing 1.77 million arrivals.
Read more: Travel Daily News Asia (Currency Impact), Travel and Tour World (Visitor Costs), Khaosod English (India Relations)
Political Theater Gets Fresh Scripts
House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha is facing ethics complaints for allegedly fast-tracking a police captain’s career path. A 40-million-baht bribery probe involving Digital Economy Minister Chaichanok Chidchob should have results reported within a month. The NACC continues its investigation of former PM Thaksin’s hospital stay saga, even as the man himself has finished up his first prison month “in good spirits.” PM Anutin leads popularity polls at 24.3%, barely ahead of opposition leader Natthaphong at 22.8% - a statistical dead heat in the court of public opinion.
Read more: The Thaiger (Ethics Complaint), Bangkok Post (Bribery Investigation), Bangkok Post (Thaksin Sentence), Bangkok Post (Poll Results)
Fishing Nets Shrink, Lawsuits Expand
Parliament approved letting boats use smaller seine nets beyond 12 nautical miles of shore, causing environmental groups to speak up with outrage. They see the possibility of an ecosystem collapse from the use of 2.5 cm mesh. Charoen Pokphand Foods is fighting allegations that it released blackchin tilapia that caused $293 million in damages. The Intellectual Property Department seized almost 3 million fake items worth more than a billion baht. Finally, Australian journalist Murray Hunter discovered that Malaysian defamation charges work just fine at Bangkok airports - a reminder that press freedom has borders.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Fisheries Law), Undercurrent News (CPF Lawsuit), Vietnam Plus (Counterfeits Seizure), The Diplomat (Press Freedom)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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The e-fuel situation with Bangchak is pretty interseting. Spending $30 million when ENEOS is only producing a barrel a day does seem optimistic, but maybe the bet is on scaling the technolgy over time? E-fuels could be huge for decarbonizing aviation and shipping where electrification isn't realy practical. Will be interesting to see if this pays off in 5 years or becomes a cautionary tale.