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Headlines:
Market Upgrade Drives Inflows
Heady Targets Set Through 2030
U.S. Trade Scrutiny
Foreign Investment Into Manufacturing
Infrastructure Buildout Accelerates Nationwide
Real Estate and Housing
Green Energy and Environmental Initiatives
Tech Driving Innovation
VinFast and Auto Market Show Strong Growth
Regulatory Reforms Reshape Business
Natural Disasters and Flood Recovery
Corruption and Enforcement
Market Upgrade Drives Inflows
FTSE Russell’s October 8 upgrade from a “frontier” to “secondary emerging” label has foreign investors foaming at the mouth and local firms scrambling to get IPOs. The change could deliver up to $2 billion in immediate inflows. Dragon Capital says they expect an eye-watering $47 billion to come into the market over three years. Techcom Securities found its IPO oversubscribed 2.5 times with 26,000 investors elbowing in, and VPBank Securities will increase its capital through a 25% share offering. The VN-Index rose 25 points to 1,790 on October 14, propped up by banking, securities, and real estate. PM Pham Minh Chinh is still insisting on more work to support market development, and the State Securities Commission is working with FTSE Russell to make sure the upgrade follows its planned roadmap.
Read more: VnEconomy (government’s policy response), Vietnam Plus (IPO frenzy angle), The Investor (contrarian view on foreign selling), Vietnamnet (sector rotation focus), HoSE Index (new investment products)
Heady Targets Set Through 2030
The government appears to be shooting for the moon with a 10% GDP growth target for next year (while keeping inflation restrained at 4.5%). Deputy Finance Minister Nguyen Duc Chi laid out the numbers to the National Assembly: per capita income needs to rise to $5,500 and state revenue needs to climb 10%. DPM Nguyen Hoa Binh went further, saying he wants to break into the top-30 global economies by 2030 on the back of 10% annual growth and per capita GDP to $8,500. Thailand: are you awake yet?
Read more: The Investor (immediate targets), VnEconomy (long-term ambitions), TV Brics (international positioning), VnExpress (current year outlook)
U.S. Trade Scrutiny
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick testified in June about American concerns that Vietnam has become a Laundromat for transshipped Chinese products. Vietnam’s exports to America rose from $2 billion in 2002 to $123 billion in 2024, but much of that rise was offset by reductions in growth that would have otherwise come from China. Despite the scrutiny, exports are at $112 billion for the first nine months of 2025, up 27% on last year. Machinery exports are up 30% to $14 billion and textiles have risen 20% to $16 billion.
Read more: Vietnam Briefing (compliance strategies), VnExpress (export surge despite tensions), China Global South(apparel sector dominance)
Foreign Investment Into Manufacturing
FDI totaled $28.54 billion by September 30, with northern provinces hoovering up the vast majority ($26.14 billion). Bac Ninh led the charge with $4.68 billion, Hung Yen pulled in $870 million alongside domestic investments totaling VND33.8 trillion. Heavy hitters include Shemar Power’s $190 million for five Bac Ninh factories, Haemologic Biotech’s high-tech medical equipment facility in Hung Yen, and the Trump International Hung Yen project bringing $1.5 billion. Samsung and Foxconn keep expanding and Apple’s reportedly partnered up with BYD for smart home devices. The north’s winning formula has been competitive land prices, improved infrastructure, a good location, and flexible policies that make high-tech projects viable.
Read more: VnEconomy (regional concentration analysis), Vietnam News (tech manufacturing pivot), European Optimism (European perspective), OANA (business confidence metrics)
Infrastructure Buildout Accelerates Nationwide
Urban railways in Hanoi and HCMC are getting fast-tracked, with ministries already assigned investment prep and capacity building work. The government is training 35,000 railway personnel through 2030 and 70,000 by 2035, including specialists in construction engineering and signaling. Hung Yen broke ground October 10 on a $2 billion LNG power plant - Thai Binh LNG Power JSC with Tokyo Gas and Kyuden International delivering 6-10 billion kWh annually, creating 2,000 construction jobs, and adding $120 million yearly to state coffers.
Read more: VnEconomy (transport focus), VnEconomy (workforce development), VIR (energy infrastructure), The Investor (logistics expansion)
Real Estate and Housing
HCMC opened 23 new projects to foreign buyers, bringing the total to 88. Foreign buyers typically look for apartments in the $500,000-$1 million range. Q3 saw more than half of HCMC’s 5,500 launched apartments priced above VND100 million / square meter ($3,800). The government reduced social housing loan rates to 5.4% through Vietnam Bank for Social Policies October 10, a move that will benefit more than 50,000 borrowers that have $781 million outstanding. Hanoi apartment prices have risen 72% over the past five years, forcing many would-be buyers toward long-term rentals instead of ownership.
Read more: VIR (foreign ownership angle), VnExpress (price normalization), VIR (affordability measures), VIR (market shift)
Green Energy and Environmental Initiatives
Idemitsu fired up the country’s first large-scale black pellet facility in Gia Lai October 14, an operation that is expected to pump out 120,000 tonnes annually of biomass fuel for decarbonizing Japanese customers. HDBank issued $50 million in green bonds to IFC on October 9 for renewable energy, green buildings, EVs, and efficiency projects. HCMC’s green growth programs from 2020-2025 are intended to result in 10% emission cuts by 2030 and net-zero by 2050.
Read more: VIR (Japan’s energy transition play), Vietnam News (green finance milestone), OANA (circular economy push), Vietnam News (municipal leadership)
Tech Driving Innovation
HCMC’s courting a $2 billion AI super data center from UAE’s G42 Group, a project that was announced during October 15’s Party session. The digital economy is on track to be 25% of the entire economy by the end of this year, with the city ranking second on some innovation indices. The Blockchain Multichain Service Network hit 300,000 transactions per second across six Layer-1 blockchains, a project that supports cross-border payments, decentralized identity, land management, and degree verification. The government unlocked 3.4-3.560 GHz and 6.425-7.125 GHz bands for 5G/6G/Wi-Fi 7. VNPT was able to secure space in the 700 MHz band for VND1.99 trillion.
Read more: VIR (Gulf tech investment), VnEconomy (sovereignty through blockchain), RCR Wireless (telecom infrastructure), Vietnam News (bureaucratic digitization)
VinFast and Auto Market Show Strong Growth
VinFast reached a new level of success on October 13, as it became the first local brand to sell 100,000+ vehicles over three quarters, after holding the top spot for 11 consecutive months. September deliveries were 13,914 EVs, bringing the nine-month total to 103,884 units. The VF 3 led with 31,386 deliveries, the VF 5 with 30,956, and VF 6 with 14,425. The market’s recovering with VAMA reporting 30,688 September sales, an increase of almost a fifth from August. Imports continue to crush domestic assembly, growing 17% compared to 6% for locally made stuff.
Read more: VnExpress (EV dominance story), VnExpress (import surge analysis), VIR (two-wheeler decline)
Regulatory Reforms Reshape Business
Red ted tape continues to be cut to the benefit of health businesses, changes that are supportive of new product launches and reduced compliance costs. The VAT framework is changing for exporters and digital service providers with updated invoice requirements for foreign e-commerce providers. They don’t seem happy about the changes. Agro-forestry-fishery exporters are also sweating the new VAT law, saying the rules have become unclear and delayed refunds are causing them cash flow problems.
Read more: Citeline (pharma sector relief), Vietnam Briefing (comprehensive tax overhaul), Vietnam News (industrial policy shift), Vietnam News (agricultural sector concerns)
Natural Disasters and Flood Recovery
Storm Matmo’s rampage through northern provinces left 18 dead or missing by October 11. Damages are, as of today, more than VND5.45 trillion ($207 million). Thai Nguyen province took the beating with losses of VND2.4 trillion, Cao Bang VND2 trillion, Lang Son VND1.05 trillion. By the numbers: 230,000 homes under water, 25,261 hectares of crops flooded, 13,000 livestock and 690,000 poultry lost. Infrastructure crumbled: 49 dykes were affected, 20 national highway sections ended up underwater, and the Hanoi-Dong Dang railway was suspended. Power outages hit more than half a million customers (most have had power restored). Natural disasters so far this year have resulted in about $1.4 billion in damages, approximately 2% of GDP.
Read more: The Investor (immediate impact assessment), VnEconomy (economic toll calculation), VnExpress(agricultural devastation), OANA (infrastructure breakdown)
Corruption and Enforcement
Hanoi police picked up NextTech chairman and Shark Tank investor Nguyen Hoa Binh on October 14 on charges of embezzlement involving the AntEx cryptocurrency. Police charged Binh and nine others with fraud and accounting indiscretions, as well as seizing more than $34 million worth of stuff including 597 gold bars, 18 property deeds, and two vehicles. Binh allegedly used project funds for personal use while the token crashed 99% after listing. The investigation is continuing to expand across the NextTech Group ecosystem, and is now making those involved with the NganLuong.vn payment gateway uneasy. Separately, authorities successfully busted a gang of wildlife smugglers October 3, taking possession of more than seven metric tons of wildlife parts including 4.2 tons of (what they think are) pangolin scales from boats headed to Indonesia.
Read more: VnExpress (asset seizure details), The Investor (legal framework), DealStreetAsia (wider business implications), Mongabay (environmental crime)
That’s it for this week!
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