Myanmar 20251021
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
ASEAN Blocks Junta from 2026 Chairmanship
December Elections Face International Rejection
USDP Gets Early Advantage, EAOs Push Back
Generation Z Joins the Resistance
Junta Recaptures Town on China Trade Route
Humanitarian Update From UNICEF
Junta Appeals for ASEAN Rebuilding Help
Chinese-Led Fraud Factories Prosecuted
Starlink Fuels Billion-Dollar Scam Operations
Crackdown on Illegal Online Gambling
Rare Earth Mining Resumes in KIA Territory
ASEAN Blocks Junta from 2026 Chairmanship
ASEAN has blocked the junta from taking the bloc’s chairmanship in 2026, a clear diplomatic spanking. The Philippines will take over the role instead, as confirmed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. during the October 2025 ASEAN summit in Jakarta. The decision comes as a result of concerns from member states that the junta’s internal problems, political turmoil, and appalling human rights record make it unfit to lead. Myanmar was scheduled to assume the chair following the end of Malaysia’s term at the end of the year. The ASEAN chair is responsible for convening summits and guiding the bloc’s agenda.
Read more: The Vibes
December Elections Face International Rejection
More news this week about how the planned December 2025 elections are getting condemnation and demands for a boycott from international organizations and Western governments. Human Rights Watch asked ASEAN and other global leaders at the October summit to reject the “sham elections,” saying there needed to be more diplomatic isolation for military leaders and more humanitarian support for the people. The EU’s Special Representative for Human Rights said they wouldn’t be sending observers, characterizing the elections as “regime-sponsored” and unlikely to produce credible outcomes. Military chief Min Aung Hlaing acknowledged on October 15 that the elections would not be fully inclusive. A recent election law puts extreme penalties, including death, on acts like criticism of the elections.
Read more: JURIST (HRW Statement), DD News (EU Position)
USDP Gets Early Advantage, EAOs Push Back
The Union Solidarity and Development Party is eagerly campaigning for the junta’s December 2025 election, taking advantage of its military connections to try and gain an advantage while other political parties flounder. The election law that was introduced in January 2023 put stricter party registration rules on political hopefuls and (helpfully for the junta!) disqualifies anyone with a criminal record, including opposition figures. Obviously, these changes stack the deck in favor of the USDP. Six signatories of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement have condemned the junta’s election plans and called for international support to boycott the vote. Ethnic armed groups, including the Arakan Army and Kachin Independence Army, oppose the elections and have declared intentions to block voting in their controlled areas.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar (USDP Campaign), Border Lens (Election Law), Strat News Global (Junta Strategy), Border Lens (Armed Resistance), Strat News Global (India Position), Eurasia Review (ASEAN Credibility)
Generation Z Joins the Resistance
The youth, notably those considered to be part of “Generation Z” (kids born between about 1997 and 2013), are now getting busy with the armed resistance beside ethnic minority forces - a shift in sentiment.
Read more: Japan News (Youth Resistance), Fulcrum (Crisis Costs)
Junta Recaptures Town on China Trade Route
The junta said that its regained control of Hsipaw, a town on the trade highway to China, after a 16-day operation against the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The TNLA says that junta forces are committing war crimes against civilians, and that 29 people have died since the junta’s offensive started in early October. The ongoing fighting in Northern Shan State has become worse this year, since a coalition of ethnic armed groups began an offensive to try and undermine the junta’s control in the region.
Read more: Taipei Times
Humanitarian Update From UNICEF
Since 2021, the military has displaced more than 3.5 million people and caused food insecurity across the country. UNICEF says that about a third of internally displaced people are children, and their limited access to healthcare and education is a tragedy. The crisis is an ongoing thorn in the side for ASEAN because of its implications on regional security and stability. The rise of illegal economies has resulted in costs to society that are beginning to affect other ASEAN member states.
Read more: Fulcrum (Regional Impact), BERNAMA (UNICEF Data)
Junta Appeals for ASEAN Rebuilding Help
The Department of Disaster Management Director-General Lai Lai Aye asked for ASEAN support to rebuild schools and healthcare centers damaged by natural disasters over the past five years. Some of the natural disasters the country has suffered recently include Cyclone Mocha in 2023 and Typhoon Yagi in 2024, along with earthquakes that have damaged public facilities in Mandalay, Sagaing, Bago, and Shan State. Over the last five years, the country tallied 87 notable disasters, including floods and industrial accidents. The government is working on recovery efforts for farmers and small industries but wants more support to rebuild damaged infrastructure.
Read more: BERNAMA
Chinese-Led Fraud Factories Prosecuted
As of this week, Chinese and Myanmar police have arrested more than 57,000 Chinese nationals for telecom fraud after a crackdown on two major criminal gangs in northern Myanmar. The Wei family gang, who run/ ran 31 compounds in Kokang, is accused of crimes including telecom fraud, online gambling, and organized prostitution, with more than 5 billion yuan in fraud-related earnings. The Liu family gang, with 28 compounds, is connected to 2.6 billion yuan in telecom fraud. Recent court rulings include the sentencing of 21 members of the Bai family on charges totaling more than 20 billion yuan in ill-won proceeds, and death sentences for 11 members of the Ming family gang.
Read more: Capital FM (Arrests), China Daily (Prosecution)
Starlink Fuels Billion-Dollar Scam Operations
Starlink satellite internet service from SpaceX is facilitating the scam operations where trafficked workers run elaborate frauds, leading to global financial losses estimated in the billions. Fraudsters reportedly use Starlink’s high-speed connections to bypass traditional internet disruptions. U.S. Senator Maggie Hassan has asked SpaceX to geoblock access in these areas. SpaceX has previously been under the microscope for what some people say is its unwillingness to curb misuse, and while it has responded to some geofencing requests, the company has been slow to address scam-related complaints.
Read more: Hindustan Times (Starlink Use), Person County Life (KK Park), WebProNews (Geoblock Calls), Islander News (New Buildings)
Crackdown on Illegal Online Gambling
The police are investigating, dismantling, and prosecuting illegal online gambling and fraud websites, in response to to public complaints about financial losses from to online gambling. The gambling websites heavily advertise games, offering incentives like bonuses to lure players to the “table,” but the games initially entice players with rewards while increasing losses, as the games and servers aren’t licensed and remain controlled by the owners. Since 2023, police have worked with the Ministry of Transport and Communications and the Central Bank of Myanmar to try and shut down online payment accounts and social media pages related to gambling. Still, it doesn’t seem to have made much of an impact.
Read more: Eleven Myanmar
Rare Earth Mining Resumes in KIA Territory
The Kachin Independence Army plans to fully resume rare earth mining in a region previously under its control. The decision comes alongside rising global competition for rare earth minerals, which are necessary for the manufacture of almost all high-tech goods. The decision to restart mining will almost certainly change the nature of both the local economy and how international supply chains run. China and India are both huge players in the rare earth mining biz, so the KIA decision is definitely going to see geopolitical consequences.
Read more: Myanmar Now (KIA Mining), Fulcrum (Geopolitical Impact)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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