Vietnam 20251023
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Headlines:
Double-Digit GDP Targets for 2026-30
Per Capita Income Hits $5,000
Corporate Bond Scandal Triggers Turmoil
Foreign Investment Surges Amid Market Upgrade
Aviation Hub Ambitions
Regulatory Reforms Reshape Playing Field
Banking Confronts Fraud and Compliance
Energy Infrastructure Expansion
Trade Landscape Shifts
Tech and Digital Economy Drive Innovation
SME and Business Environment Support
Opportunities Draw Foreign Interest
Corporate Destruction, Reconstruction
Double-Digit GDP Targets for 2026-30
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh went out on a limb on October 20, saying the government was going to shoot for an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 10% for the years 2026 to 2030. The 2025 GDP rate is expected to come in at 8% by year’s end with trade value of $900 billion and public debt sitting at about a third of GDP. The government’s plan will require more economic restructuring, industrialization, and innovation, against a backdrop of economic stability (including tame inflation). The private sector will need to drive the growth; the government plans to be especially supportive of competitive private groups and SMEs. Infrastructure development remains a top priority, alongside investment in digital skills, languages, and STEM for workers.
Read more: Vietnam News (Growth Targets), KFGO (Infrastructure Plans), VIR (Economic Analysis)
Per Capita Income Hits $5,000
Per capita income has reached about $5,000 as of this month, pushing the country into what’s considered to be an upper-middle-income status. The government, keen to show off it’s accomplishments, reported completing more than 400 field visits, holding 45 legal sessions, and submitting 180 pieces of legislation during the 2021-2026 term. GDP grew from $346 billion to $510 billion, and the nation’s global ranking rose from 37th to 32nd. The Human Development Index also rose by 18 places. Goals that are still on the agenda include the hope of being categorized as a modern industrialized country by 2030.
Read more: VietnamNet (Income Growth), VietnamNet (Leadership)
Corporate Bond Scandal Triggers Turmoil
Novaland Group shares plunged 7% on October 20 after a Government Inspectorate announcement referred bond-related violations to the Ministry of Public Security. The investigation will affect 67 major issuers, with Novaland identified as a focal point for allegations, including fictitious transactions to misappropriate bond-sale proceeds dating back to 2015. Outstanding debt reached VND34.9 trillion ($1.43 billion) as of June 30, 2023, but the company was able to settle almost half by restructuring. The main stock index fell 5.47% to 1,636.43, its lowest level in a month and the second-biggest percentage fall of the year. Commercial banks, including ACB, MB, VPBank, VIB, and OCB, were also alleged to have misused trillions of dong from bond issues, with ACB improperly allocating VND3.7 trillion and MB diverting VND1.92 trillion from planned investments.
Read more: Vietnam News (Novaland), Business Times (Market Impact), Vietnam News (Bank Violations)
Foreign Investment Surges Amid Market Upgrade
As expected, foreign investors have been net buyers on both HoSE and HNX. FDI inflows are so far up 15.2% this year. Forex trading volumes from institutional investors more than doubled, rising 150% already this year. FTSE Russell upgraded the country from frontier to secondary emerging market status on October 8, opening the door for more foreign investment.
Read more: Vietnam News (Market Recovery), VIR (Forex Trading), The Investor (FDI Growth)
Aviation Hub Ambitions
Korean Air, led by Kyoung Hee Kang, identifies Vietnam as its most serviced market in Southeast Asia, on pace to transport nearly 750,000 passengers to and from South Korea this year. The airline runs to five destinations and plans to further expand to Quy Nhon, Hue, or Da Lat based on demand and capacity. South Korea is Vietnam’s second-largest source of tourists, bringing about 20% of the total. Emirates SkyCargo shifted 13,873 tons of cargo in FY 2024-2025, supported by three weekly cargo flights to Hanoi. AGX Group tied up contracts with Sun PhuQuoc Airways for cargo forwarding, transportation, and customs brokerage services, setting AGX up as a logistics partner for the airline’s operations as it expects to grow its fleet to 25 by the end of 2026 and to 35 by 2027.
Read more: VnEconomy (Korean Air), Business Today (AGX Logistics)
Regulatory Reforms Reshape Playing Field
The National Assembly passed Law No. 56/2024/QH15 in November 2024, setting a minimum owner equity requirement of VND30 billion ($1.1 million) for public companies and demanding that at least 10% of shares be held by no fewer than 100 minority shareholders. Board members are currently limited to six concurrent roles. The State Securities Commission introduced the Green Bond Disclosure Handbook on October 13, 2025, and launched three new investment indices set to start on November 3, 2025: they are VNMITECH, VN50 Growth, and VNDIVIDEND. The State Bank of Vietnam also wants to form a gold exchange under state management to create liquidity from domestic gold resources and to introduce gold derivatives and ETFs.
Read more: Vietnam News (Securities Law), The Investor (Green Bonds), VIR (Market Indices), Vietnam News (IPO Reform), The Investor (Gold Exchange)
Banking Confronts Fraud and Compliance
The Vietnam Banks Association released a new handbook on October 22 to share how to run risk management for accounts and payment services as related to suspected fraud. The rules require banks to update internal procedures by November 30. When suspicious transactions are suspected, NAPAS will automatically trace accounts and alert banks for action, with frozen suspected funds not to be refunded even on customer request. Margin lending hit a new historical level of about $14 billion in Q3, though analysts seem to be generally unconcerned as ratios are still within regulatory limits. The State Securities Commission suspended two Grant Thornton auditors for their failure to meet auditing standards in Saigon Water Infrastructure Corporation’s 2024 financial statements.
Read more: Vietnam News (Fraud Prevention), The Investor (Margin Lending), The Investor (Auditor Suspension), Market Screener (Techcombank)
Energy Infrastructure Expansion
The Lao Cai–Vinh Yen 500kV power transmission line project was inaugurated on October 17, 2023, helpfully a full eight months ahead of schedule. The line features a double-circuit design over 229.5 km and 468 tower foundations. Total investment was in excess of $280 million, and the line is capable of sending approximately 3,000 MW from hydropower plants to the national grid. Provincial leaders at the Northern Industry and Trade Conference 2025 discussed energy supply issues, with two-thirds of businesses complaining that administrative inefficiencies are continuing obstacles. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is drafting a parliamentary resolution to allow private companies to invest in small modular nuclear reactors for the first time, a huge change in the energy landscape that could dramatically affect energy-intensive industries like steelmaking, petrochemicals, semiconductors, and data centers. Sumitomo Corporation picked up a 49% stake in the Dak Di 1・2 run-of-river hydropower project in Da Nang, a project that’s been running since 2022.
Read more: VnEconomy (Power Line), VIR (Energy Challenges), The Investor (Nuclear Plans), Sumitomo (Hydropower Investment)
Trade Landscape Shifts
Wood exporters are getting taken to the shed on US tariffs of up to 50% on wood and furniture. Coffee exports were able to muster a new record high of $8.4 billion in the 2024-2025 crop year, a 60% increase. Producers were able to get more than 1.5 million tonnes out the door over the period. Coffee prices reached five-week highs on tight supplies; concerns about Tropical Storm Fengshen’s potential to damage crops in the Central Highlands were high. Rice exporters are turning to Africa because of tightening import restrictions by the Philippines and Indonesia. Ghana’s rice imports have almost doubled so far this year.
Read more: Vietnam News (Wood Tariffs), VietnamPlus (Coffee Exports), Barchart (Coffee Prices), VIR (Rice Exports)
Tech and Digital Economy Drive Innovation
Viettel High Tech was recognized by Gartner as a “Niche Player” for its role in bringing 5G technology into commercial viability. It was the only Southeast Asian company in Gartner’s Magic Quadrant for CSP 5G RAN Infrastructure Solutions this year. The company expects to build out a further 2,500 5G stations by the end of the year. On the retail front, the e-commerce ecosystem is still capturing more than its share of optimism as the strongest growth path in Southeast Asia. Finally, a new draft AI law modeled after the EU’s AI Act is set to categorize AI usage into four risk tiers - what will happen after the classification is made remains guesswork.
Read more: Vietnam News (5G Leadership), VnEconomy (E-commerce Growth), Vietnam News (Tech Incentives), Dig.Watch (AI Law)
SME and Business Environment Support
More than five million household businesses help add about 30% to GDP while, at the same time, providing employment to more than 10 million people. The Politburo’s Resolution No 68 is intended to improve the way these businesses make the transition into more formal enterprises. The government wants to cut current procedures, costs, and processing time for citizens and businesses by a third. The revised Corporate Income Tax Law will keep a standard 20% rate but introduces preferential rates of 15% for companies with annual revenues under VND3 billion and 17% for those with revenues between VND3 billion and VND50 billion.
Read more: Vietnam News (Household Businesses), Vietnam News (Tax Simplification), Vietnam News (Twin Transition)
Opportunities Draw Foreign Interest
Singaporean investors are seeing how they can grow their foothold in Hung Yen Province. Ali Ijaz Ahmad announced plans for a 300-hectare pharmaceutical-biotechnology industrial park that’s going under local review in January. SPX Express started construction on an automated sorting center this month - it’s expected to be the largest facility of its type in Southeast Asia, while Soilbuild International started building Spectrum Hung Yen with a $60 million investment. Murphy Oil says that Vietnam is going to be an important part of its global strategy, and plans to invest $110 million in offshore operations in 2025, including $20 million for Lac Da Vang development drilling. Expertise France is working on projects worth €10 million and has short-term plans to triple investment in Franco-Vietnamese cooperation.
Read more: VnEconomy (Singapore), The Investor (Murphy Oil), VnEconomy (France), VIR (Fund Management)
Corporate Destruction, Reconstruction
Several food and beverage brands continue to shutter because of economic pressures. Central Plaza Hotel is dissolving its Café Amazon joint venture, Bready announced its closure after 21 years, and Vua Cua shut operations in March 2025. The F&B Market Report reported a 7.1% drop in active outlets to below 300,000. Novaland has received investment approval for its flagship NovaWorld Phan Thiet project, that will be worth $5 billion. The approval follows years of delays. HAGL unexpectedly re-entered the real estate market after discovering (!?) a long-forgotten land plot, and got an MoU for a VND400 billion ($15.18 million) residential and commercial complex. REE will set up two wholly-owned subsidiaries in Vinh Long province to develop wind power projects with expected total investments of nearly $232.32 million. Gushine Electronics cut the ribbon on a 22,000-square-meter lithium battery manufacturing base in Hai Phong, a plant that’s expected to see an annual output value of $100 million.
Read more: VIR (F&B Closures), The Investor (Novaland), The Investor (HAGL), The Investor (REE Wind), Batteries News (Gushine)
That’s it for this week!
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