Myanmar 20251028
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
China’s Drones and Weapons Tilt the Battlefield
Starlink Battle Divides Civvies and Resistance
UN Wants ASEAN to Reject Sham Elections
Arakan Army Accused of Forced Labour
Chinese Firms Invited to Oil Fields
Hydropower Leads 6,357 MW Capacity
China’s Drones and Weapons Tilt the Battlefield
China continues to provide military support to the junta, including drones and other weapons, helping the regime win back territory with military technology. Beijing’s involvement is tipping the scales of the conflict as the junta is pushing hard to gain control of territory ahead of the upcoming elections. The real question now is whether China’s matériel support will stabilize the situation or make things worse.
Read more: NDTV (Drone Impact- video), NDTV (Weapons Supply - video), Myanmar Now (Airstrikes - paywall)
Starlink Battle Divides Civvies and Resistance
SpaceX has belatedly disabled more than 2,500 Starlink devices that were being used at scam centers across the country, finally taking a stand against an explosion of use that’s been verified by investigation. The cutoff is similar to the one in February when Thailand cut off access which resulted in the repatriation of 7,000 workers. Separately, but in the same vein, resistance fighters are restricting civilian Starlink access in areas they control, with a claim that uncontrolled access puts the security of anti-junta forces at risk. Civilians in resistance-controlled areas aren’t happy about the access restrictions, saying they’ve become dependent on Starlink for communication. Anecdotally, we know several Myanmar workers in Bangkok who say their only way to communicate with relatives still in Myanmar is via Starlink.
Read more: Yahoo News (Scam Centres), Myanmar Now (Resistance Restrictions)
UN Wants ASEAN to Reject Sham Elections
Tom Andrews, UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation, continues to call the planned election “illegitimate” and warns ASEAN against legitimizing the charade. Andrews says the junta has disregarded ASEAN’s Five Point Consensus since the start, with violence and the erosion of civil liberties continuing to head in the wrong direction. He says that legitimizing the elections would endorse a facade of democracy while political prisoners are locked up and freedom of expression is absent. Andrews wants ASEAN leadership to abandon support for the junta and begin talking turkey with the National Unity Government. The urgent call to action came just ahead of the 47th ASEAN Summit, a critical moment for the bloc’s credibility and identity.
Read more: Devdiscourse
Arakan Army Accused of Forced Labour
Fortify Rights is saying that the Arakan Army is forcing ethnic minorities in Rakhine State into labor. The claim is that the AA is coercing civilians into unpaid work, including carrying ammunition and building fortifications, under threat of violence. Survivors say that some are being forced to work at gunpoint, with harsh results for those who resist. Fortify Rights’ report claims that the actions might rise to the level of war crimes. The military junta, of course, is regularly accused of forced labor nationwide.
Read more: Maktoob Media
Chinese Firms Invited to Oil Fields
Union Minister for Energy U Ko Ko Lwin has asked Chinese companies to put up investment in onshore oil fields to increase production. The minister went to China to talk about the national energy transition plans at the 2025 International Forum and took the chance to tour oil fields in Yulin Province on October 18. The minister, in his remarks, said that the maturity of Myanmar’s oil fields is comparable to China’s, but since Chinese technology can significantly improve recovery rates, he wants Chinese participation. He proposed that partnerships could be found in oil field development, technical training, and staff exchanges.
Read more: Eleven Myanmar
Hydropower Leads 6,357 MW Capacity
Electricity generation capacity has reached 6,357 MW, with just more than half of that coming from hydropower. The current energy mix is also made up of 40% natural gas, 4% solar, 2% coal, and 3% diesel. The government is expected to phase out coal by 2050. Under the National Electrification Plan to 2030, the focus is on hydropower and natural gas to meet rising electricity demand. By 2030, the hopes are for 11% of electricity (2,000 MW) to come from non-hydro renewables domestically and 17% (3,070 MW) with international support. Union Minister for Electric Power U Nyan Tun said that a new 20-year energy development plan for 2026–2045 is underway.
Read more: Eleven Myanmar
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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