Vietnam 20251030
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Headlines:
Market Upgrade Drives Reform Momentum
Foreign Investment Hits Five-Year High
Intel Moves Assembly from Costa Rica
Energy Faces Regulatory Bottlenecks
Northern Industrial Parks Near Capacity
Tech Continues to Draw in Cash
UK and EU Double Down on VN
Party Congress Wants 10% Growth
Corporate Bond Market To Get an Overhaul
Record Floods Kill Seven, Displace Thousands
Tourism Rebounds in the Coastal Provinces
Banks Get Massive Q3 Profit Fillip
Real Estate Developer Revenue Skyrockets
Trade Flows in Rude Health
Market Upgrade Drives Reform Momentum
The reclassification of the national bourse to “secondary emerging” market status by FTSE Russell is forcing a slate of changes that’ll bring in more foreign capital. The State Securities Commission says it wants to allow foreign investors to place orders directly through global brokers. Operational details on how that will work are expected by March. Authorities are also building an online platform that will connect custodian banks and securities companies to replace manual processes in advance of the final FTSE Russell review. The upgrade is expected to bring as much as $10 billion in portfolio inflows over the following year and a half, with hopes as high as $25 billion in extra capital by 2030. HSBC has raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.9% from 6.6%.
Read more: The Investor (Direct Trading), The Armchair Trader (Inflow Projections), VnEconomy (Platform Upgrade), Trading View (GDP Forecast)
Foreign Investment Hits Five-Year High
Registered foreign direct investment reached $28.54 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 15.2% and a five-year high. Disbursed FDI totaled $18.8 billion as existing investors raised capital expenditures by nearly half and equity contributions by more than a third. Ho Chi Minh City pulled in $4.4 billion, Bac Ninh $4.7 billion, and Hanoi $3.8 billion. Chinese companies are pushing hard to dodge the effects of US-China trade issues.
Read more: VIR (Investment Climate), Fibre2Fashion (Five-Year High), Digitimes (Chinese Expansion)
Intel Moves Assembly from Costa Rica
Intel plans to relocate part of its assembly, packaging, and testing capacity from Costa Rica to a new facility in Saigon Hi-Tech Park, in Ho Chi Minh City. Kenneth Tse, Intel’s vice president of manufacturing, confirmed plans to hire new technical staff in order to meet the resulting rise in capacity demands. The facility is expected to become Intel’s largest global packaging and testing site, employing more than 6,000 people and accounting for more than half of its global capacity. The company has laid off more than 20,000 employees globally since March 2025, its total workforce now numbers about 88,000.
Read more: Digitimes
Energy Faces Regulatory Bottlenecks
Investors in gas-fired power projects have asked the National Assembly to fix regulatory gaps that threaten the latest Power Development Plan target of adding 22.5 GW of LNG capacity by 2030. Only Nhon Trach 3 & 4 plants in Dong Nai are on track to be done on time, and other major projects like Hai Lang and Quang Ninh are delayed due to unresolved (dis)agreements. Investors are proposing a two-part electricity tariff, assigning EVN the “take-or-pay” obligation in gas contracts, as well as offering foreign exchange protections for costs that are USD-denominated. Legal and infrastructure issues have hampered project growth since at least 2021.
Read more: The Investor (LNG Hurdles), The Investor (Policy Framework)
Northern Industrial Parks Near Capacity
Northern industrial real estate is developing faster than expected as demand from manufacturers outpaces capacity. The total industrial land supply in the northern region is now 23,563 hectares, which is about 37% higher than it was before the recent administrative mergers. Bac Ninh says occupancy is 86% and Hanoi is getting close to full capacity. The average regional occupancy rate is 67%. Average rental rates also rose to $133 a square meter, up 4%. Three new industrial parks in Phu Tho, Haiphong, and Ninh Binh have added more than 700 hectares to the available total, and by 2028, an additional 6,500 hectares are expected, most of which will be in Ninh Binh.
Read more: VIR (Regional Growth), VIR (Haiphong Project)
Tech Continues to Draw in Cash
Foxconn subsidiary ShunYun Technology said that it would add $15 million of investment in its Bac Ninh subsidiary, raising total investment to $85.2 million. The money will be used to increase production of optical transceiver parts at Quang Chau Industrial Park as Foxconn moves more work out of China. Nokia has extended its partnership with VNPT to upgrade radio hardware with more energy-efficient equipment in Hanoi, border provinces, and the south. Nokia also signed an MoU with Viettel for next-gen infrastructure, including 5G/6G. Sumitomo Corp picked up a 49% stake in Mekong Electric Power for the Dak Di 1 & 2 hydropower project in Danang, its first hydropower investment.
Read more: The Investor (Foxconn), The Investor (Nokia-VNPT), The Investor (Sumitomo Hydro)
UK and EU Double Down on VN
The UK and Vietnam upgraded the label given to their bilateral relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership during General Secretary To Lam’s visit. The deal will improve cooperation in six areas: politics and diplomacy, defense and security, economic and trade relations, science and technology, environment and energy transition, and the much-encompassing “regional issues.” Both said that they remained committed to the UK-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement and CPTPP. The EU wants to continue working on trade-investment and green transition ties; Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh asked the European Commission to review progress on the IUU fishing situation and consider lifting the seafood export “yellow card.”
Read more: Gov.UK (UK Partnership), Devdiscourse (Migration Deal), The Investor (EU Relations)
Party Congress Wants 10% Growth
The Communist Party has scheduled its 14th National Congress for January 19-25 where it expects to elect the new Central Committee and approve four major reports on political direction, the 40-year Doi Moi renewal process, Party Statutes, and a self-assessment of the current Central Committee. The draft political report expects an average GDP growth of 10% between 2026 and 2030, along with a transition to a knowledge-based economy that builds on a foundation of human capital, innovation, and Party building. The targets require “breakthrough mechanisms” for resource allocation, citizen engagement, and democratic practices while keeping a lid on corruption. Separately, State President Luong Cuong arrived in Busan yesterday to attend the APEC Economic Leaders’ Week in preparation for hosting APEC in 2027.
Read more: Plenglish (Congress Date), VnEconomy (Draft Report), VnEconomy (APEC)
Corporate Bond Market To Get an Overhaul
The Government Inspectorate is pulling its hair out after finding widespread violations in the corporate bond market, after looking at 67 issuers from 2015 to mid-2023. Many companies, especially in real estate, sold bonds illegally and then misused the proceeds. Credit-rating rules only became mandatory in 2024, allowing weak firms to get risky bond offerings off before the regs were enforced. The Hanoi Stock Exchange was criticized for failing to enforce transparency obligations, and the Inspectorate said that still more reforms, including the amendment of bond issuance decrees, tightened controls on bond usage, and improved coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank. The Ministry of Construction wants to see real estate transactions move online through trading centers or electronic platforms. A pilot exchange is expected to launch sometime in 2026 and or 2027.
Read more: Vietnam News (Bond Violations), Vietnam News (Online Transactions)
Record Floods Kill Seven, Displace Thousands
Record rainfall of more than a full meter in just 24 hours resulted in brutal flooding in central provinces, killing at least seven people and leaving at least five missing. More than 8,600 people were evacuated from four provinces. A landslide in Quang Ngai province cut access to about 1,700 people and damaged crops. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting warned that natural disaster risks are at the highest level. Of course, some attribute the worsening weather severity to climate change. Natural disasters in 2025 have so far killed or left 187 people missing and caused more than $610 million in economic losses.
Read more: France24 (Evacuation), Phys.org (Casualties), News.az (Economic Impact)
Tourism Rebounds in the Coastal Provinces
Khanh Hoa hosted 28% more visitors this October than it did last year, with the tally so far numbering 817,000 souls. The Discovery Princess docked at Cam Ranh International Port on October 25, disgorging 1,200 international guests. Thanh Hoa has already earned a respectable $1.65 billion in tourism revenue this year, a figure that’s also handily up by a third. The influx is being credited to relaxed visa rules and better air connections. Authorities want to pull in as many as 20 million international visitors by 2030.
Read more: Travel and Tour World (Khanh Hoa), VnEconomy (Thanh Hoa), Vietnam Insiders (October Arrivals)
Banks Get Massive Q3 Profit Fillip
VPBank notched a record pre-tax profit of $382 million in Q3, surpassing Techcombank, which reported a Q3 pre-tax profit exceeding $312 million. Thirteen commercial banks reported double-digit profit growth on the back of increasing credit growth, strong service revenue increases, and reduced funding costs because of higher deposits. Outstanding credit has risen 13.37% since the start of the year.
Read more: Vietnam Insiders
Real Estate Developer Revenue Skyrockets
Some of the biggest developers posted strong Q3 performance. Becamex IJC delivered net revenue of VND671.6 billion ($25.4 million), a 3.5-fold increase. Sunshine Group posted net revenue of VND4.23 trillion, 26 times higher than the previous year. Real estate transaction volume was up a tiny bit (1%) in Q1-3, but prices surged about a third in both Hanoi and HCM City. Supply limitations in HCMC are pushing buyers out to nearby provinces, where prices are often less than half what they are in the big city. CBRE expects 4,300 high-rise and 750 low-rise units in HCM City by year-end. CapitaLand Development sold 91% of the units it made available at The Fullton Edition during its launch weekend (last weekend).
Read more: Vietnam News (Q3 Results), Vietnam News (HCM City), VIR (Fullton Edition), Tuoi Tre News (Flight Delays)
Trade Flows in Rude Health
Two-way trade with China topped $184 billion in the first nine months - that’s up almost a quarter, with rising agricultural exports to China and machinery imports. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the ASEAN Summit, where they talked about more railway cooperation and how they might be able to introduce smart border gates at their shared frontier. Fruit and vegetable export revenue is expected to beat $8 billion by year-end. Pepper exports totaled 188,000 tonnes valued at $1.27 billion, a volume decrease of 6.3% but a value increase of 28.7%. Rice exports brought in $3.59 billion from 7 million tonnes, down 4.4% in volume and 21.9% in value because of weak global demand and soft (and falling) prices.
Read more: VnEconomy (China Trade), VnEconomy (Fruit Exports), Vietnam News (Pepper), Retail News Asia (Rice)
That’s it for this week!
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