Myanmar 20251104
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Junta’s Sham Election Campaign Underway
Press Freedom Under Assault
China-Brokered Ceasefire Shifts Military Focus
Cybercrime Hub Exodus
Relations Still Rosy With Russia, Belarus
UK Territories Enable Junta Revenue Flow
Rare Earth Mining Ramps Up Along Thai Border
Crony Capitalism Undermines ESG, Labor Battered
Humanitarian Crisis Affecting 22M
Junta’s Sham Election Campaign Underway
Election campaigning got underway on October 28 for the military’s December 28 polls, but only one party - the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) - appears to be active. The USDP says that it’s going to field just over a thousand candidates, including retired generals and current junta ministers. The latest expectation is that polling will only be viable in 102 of 330 townships, and the most popular opposition parties, like the National League for Democracy, remain locked out after being disbanded. The junta has also banned campaign rallies and street parades without government permission, in addition to arresting people up under threat of death for interference (see next story). Not a good look.
Read more: Irrawaddy (USDP Campaign), Irrawaddy (Generals as Candidates), Irrawaddy (UN Rejection), Arab News(International Media), 10TV (Campaign Details), Devdiscourse (Legitimacy Questions)
Press Freedom Under Assault
UN Secretary-General António Guterres reminded everyone that Myanmar remains one of the countries with the highest number of media workers who are locked up. Movie director Mike Tee and actors Kyaw Win Htut and Ohn Daing were arrested on October 27 under the Election Protection Law for criticizing a 36-minute propaganda film that was produced to promote the election. The junta once again reminded everyone to avoid criticism of the film; the Election Protection Law imposes harsh penalties (up to and including death) for actions that are claimed to be “election sabotage.” So far, 64 arrests have been made under the law.
Read more: Daily Sun (Journalist Imprisonment), Irrawaddy (Film Critics Arrested), Arab News (Media Coverage)
China-Brokered Ceasefire Shifts Military Focus
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army signed a ceasefire with the junta after talks in Kunming, and has agreed to pull back from Mogok and Momeik in exchange for getting the junta to stop ground offensives and airstrikes in the area. The truce is win for the regime, which has so far only been able to reclaim four of 43 towns it lost since October 2023. With fighting at a pause in northern Shan State, the junta is redirecting air campaign to Rakhine State and the central region.
Read more: Asahi (Ceasefire Agreement), Irrawaddy (Territory Return), Irrawaddy (Rakhine Bombing), Mizzima(Military Gains), Manila Times (China Mediation), Eurasia Review (China Strategy)
Cybercrime Hub Exodus
More than 1,500 foreign nationals from 28 countries ran into Thailand after the junta’s military forces took control of the KK Park cybercrime compound. Thai authorities have detained hundreds for crossing the border illegally. The Philippine government says it rescued 66 nationals and 220 Filipinos still trapped. A deployment ban for Filipino workers looking for employment in the country remains in effect.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Thai Response), Hindu (Scam Operations), Japan Times (India Repatriation), Filipino Times(Filipino Rescue), TRT World (Repatriation Flights), Inquirer (Trafficking Crisis)
Relations Still Rosy With Russia, Belarus
Union Foreign Minister Than Swe signed a visa exemption agreement with Russia during the Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security that will allow for two-way visa-free travel. At the same event, he also confirmed a 2025-2027 consultation plan between their foreign ministries. Separately, Than Swe also met with Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov. Myanmar Airways plans to begin direct flights from Yangon to Moscow by late 2026 or early 2027, a route that would be the first direct air service between the two cities in decades.
Read more: Mizzima (Visa Agreement), Myanmar TV (Bilateral Meetings), Travel and Tour World (Moscow Route), Irrawaddy (Minsk Conference)
UK Territories Enable Junta Revenue Flow
Two joint venture companies registered in UK-overseas territories are generating hundreds of millions of dollars for the junta-controlled Myanma Oil & Gas Enterprise through gas transportation from offshore fields to Thailand. Moattama Gas Transportation Company and Andaman Transportation Limited, involving state energy company PTT, have continued operations since the 2021 coup, possibly in violation of UK sanctions. Justice for Myanmar tried to force some enforcement by filing legal complaints in April 2024, but, so far, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands have not done anything with the allegations.
Read more: Finance Uncovered (Revenue Flow), Business & Human Rights Resource Centre (Labour Violations)
Rare Earth Mining Ramps Up Along Thai Border
China Investment Mining Company is expanding rare earth and gold mining works along the Nam Kok River in eastern Shan State. Satellite images from October 14 show widespread deforestation and mining expansion near the Thai border. The expansion comes as rare earth exports to China have been absolutely booming. It remains unclear what, if any, U.S. policy response might come from the Trump administration - it needs rare earths and knows that Myanmar has them.
Read more: Mizzima (Mining Expansion), Irrawaddy (U.S. Interest)
Crony Capitalism Undermines ESG, Labor Battered
Two of the biggest problems in the Myanmar ESG scene are military-linked companies, and a generally poor understanding of what ESG is supposed to be about. Recent U.S. tariffs on the garment industry threaten labor rights for a workforce of 500,000-800,000 workers, complicating ESG principles. Cal-Comp Electronics allegedly dismissed more than 1,400 migrant workers without warning, with some workers saying they were confined, threatened, and coerced into signing termination papers that limited their compensation to just a little over $300.
Read more: Eurasia Review (ESG Challenges), Business & Human Rights Resource Centre (Worker Dismissals), Business & Human Rights Resource Centre (Union Crackdown)
Humanitarian Crisis Affecting 22M
UN special rapporteur Tom Andrews is still on the dais to tell the world that humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate, and he says that roughly 22 million people now need help.
Read more: Citizen Portal (UN Report), Open Democracy (Rohingya Crisis), Quint (Deportations), Nikkei Asia (Thai Labor)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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