Thailand 20251107
Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Economic Outlook Mixed Amid Headwinds
Government War on Cybercrime and Grey Money
Tourism Flaccid Despite Air-Route Wins
Household Debt Crisis Prompts Buyback Plan
Political Maneuvering Before Elections
Infrastructure: SRT, AOT, Phuket Tunnel
Investment and Business Developments
Rare Earths Deal With U.S. Sparks Debate
Tech Sees AI, Drone, SVOD Wins
Retail and Consumer Mixed
International Relations: CN, KR
Legal and Regulatory Roundup
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Economic Outlook Mixed Amid Headwinds
The economy saw a few mild improvements in September. Manufacturing saw a small bounce, and exports were up healthily - nearly a fifth over last year. As a result, Thailand is sitting on a trade surplus of $3.6 billion. October saw manufacturing PMI hit a 29-month high of 56.6, a pickup that was driven by an uptick in domestic demand. The central bank says it expects FY growth to come in at 2.2%, which is still lower than earlier estimates, and it expects to hold its policy rate at 1.50%. Business confidence rose to a seven-month high in October, but private investment dropped 4.5% in September, the largest drop since the last month of 2023. The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking revised export growth projections to up to 10% this year, up from 2-3%, though they still worry that an over-reliance on imported inputs is keeping a lid on upside benefit to the economy.
Read more: Market Screener (Q3 Slowdown), Xinhua (Manufacturing Growth), Trading View (Business Confidence), Trading View (Investment Drop), Bangkok Post (Export Growth)
Government War on Cybercrime and Grey Money
“On,” like, as in, “Against.” The Prime Minister said that online scams are a national security threat. His government has created a “Connect the Dots” task force to investigate suspicious money flows. Implementation is expected by December. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said an emergency decree regulating “grey money” is in the works, and the Bank of Thailand has told commercial banks to bone up on the monitoring of suspicious transactions (including via cryptocurrency platforms). All this work is underway as “grey money” often moves through cryptocurrency channels before it gets laundered into gold and luxury assets.
Read more: Bangkok Post (MoU Signing), Bangkok Post (Task Force), The Diplomat (Global Standards), Bangkok Post(Banking Sector), Sigma World (Framework)
Tourism Flaccid Despite Air-Route Wins
Foreign tourist arrivals remain down more than 7% year-to-date through November 2, totaling only ~27 million visitors. As a result, the Finance Ministry has reduced its expectations to 33.5 arrivals for the year. Malaysia and China are still the top suppliers of people, providing 3.88 million and 3.8 million visitors respectively. The government is trying to bring more people by way of niche markets like wellness and eco-tourism, and is also continuing to look at new visa waivers and travel for end-of-year festivities. New airline routes are coming: Etihad Airways is launching direct Abu Dhabi-Chiang Mai service on November 4, and Thai Airways plans for 2026 expansion, including doubled frequencies to China and some of its European routes. Centrum Air is now running twice-weekly Tashkent-Phuket flights.
Read more: Travel and Tour World (Decline Analysis), Trading View (Arrival Statistics), Travel and Tour World (Thai Airways Expansion), Khaosod English (Etihad Launch), TAT News (Centrum Air)
Household Debt Crisis Prompts Buyback Plan
The government plans to buy back 122 billion baht of small loans from 3.5 million citizens in an attempt to ease the household debt problem. Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the program will limit purchases to 100,000 baht per person. As of June, household debt was a worrying 86.8% of GDP: 16.3 trillion baht, which is one of the highest ratios in Asia. The Khon La Khrueng Plus co-payment scheme drove 5.4 billion baht in spending in 14.9 million transactions by early November. The Ministry said it was using data analytics to detect fraud and blocked 55 vendors for rule violations. The scheme excludes large franchises and online purchases as it favors spending to SMEs.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Buyback Plan), Bangkok Post (Shop Violations), Bangkok Post (Data Analytics), Bangkok Post (Behavioral Economics)
Political Maneuvering Before Elections
The Melbourne Cup wasn’t the only world-class jockeying this week. The Pheu Thai Party chose Julapun Amornvivat as their new leader on Halloween Day, replacing former PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who stepped down to try and rejuvenate the party elections expected in March 2026. The party is pushing for a no-confidence motion against the Bhumjaithai-led minority government. The People’s Party launched its campaign with the slogan “With Us, No Gray,” polling at 26% party preference, and Anutin is just about 20% for PM preference. A Nida Poll showed mixed results with both parties competitive in the upcoming vote.
Read more: Bangkok Post (New Leader), Taipei Times (Analysis), Bangkok Post (Censure Motion), Bangkok Post(Campaign Launch), Bangkok Post (Membership Fraud)
Infrastructure: SRT, AOT, Phuket Tunnel
The Cabinet approved an 18 billion baht loan for the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) to cover fiscal 2026 operating expenses, as it faces operating deficits and tries to shoulder debt of 300 billion baht. The Transport Ministry has postponed transferring management of Krabi, Buri Ram, and Udon Thani airports from the Department of Airports to Airports of Thailand. The Department wants airport modernization, including automated ticketing and biometric screening, by 2028. The Kathu-Patong expressway project will be changing from a tollway to a toll-free public highway. Construction will start in April and is expected to take about 4 years.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Railway Funding), Bangkok Post (Airport Management), Bangkok Post (Expressway Revisions), Bangkok Post (Tunnel Delays)
Investment and Business Developments
The Board of Investment and Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) hooked up to try and get more BoI-promoted companies to list on the SET. To do so, they’ve engineered an ecosystem that brings together tax incentives and other financial support. Big Fintech player and payment processor 2C2P says it’s going to invest more than 1.5 billion baht in the coming three years, and is expected to launch its Qwik platform on November 20. Foreign investors continued selling Thai equities. They’ve shed more than 100 billion baht of equity so far this year. DHL Supply Chain rolled out a fully solar-powered logistics center in October ($43 million invested). Acne Studios opened its first store at Siam Paragon. Deutsche Bank has appointed Penluck Sriboonruang as Vice President for its team.
Read more: Bangkok Post (BoI-SET Partnership), Bangkok Post (2C2P Investment), Bangkok Post (Foreign Outflows), Reccessary (DHL Facility), Retail News Asia (Acne Studios), Retail News Asia (Deutsche Bank)
Rare Earths Deal With U.S. Sparks Debate
The government signed an MoU with the U.S. on rare earth investments on November 3, and it requires them to tell Washington about potential investors “at the earliest practicable moment” and give U.S. companies “first opportunity” for deals. Some wondered about the apparently limited flexibility of the deal, especially when measured up to Malaysia’s agreement (signed on the same day). There were also those who noted the lack of public disclosure before the deal was inked and questioned what the actual benefits to Thailand were.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Deal Terms), Bangkok Post (Environmental Concerns)
Tech Sees AI, Drone, SVOD Wins
The Ministry of Digital Economy and Society has partnered with Google Cloud to give free access to AI tools in the Google AI Pro package to students 18 and above. Sora, OpenAI’s AI video generation app was officially launched in Thailand and now allows users to download the app for free on iOS without requiring an invitation. High Lander Aviation, National Telecom, and the Civil Aviation Authority showed off large-scale drone delivery in Bangkok this week. They showed the Vega UTM platform which is integrated with NT’s 5G network. A report found that Thailand is the biggest premium Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) market in Southeast Asia. They valued it at $1.4 billion, and said that more than a third of households are users, and penetration will be almost half of households by 2030.
Read more: Bangkok Post (AI Access), AI News (Sora App), ePlane AI (Drone Delivery), Deadline (SVOD Market)
Retail and Consumer Mixed
Line Man Wongnai expects a 20-30% sales increase from the Khon La Khrueng Plus co-payment scheme, saying 32,990 restaurants were registered on the platform as of November 4. The company dropped its gross profit fee to 7% and has invested 300 million baht in marketing. The ChaKaimuk bubble tea franchise is going to focus internationally because of “domestic price wars.” They say they have plans to add 1,000 new international branches within five years. Thai Yamaha Motor thinks the motorcycle market is going to stay sluggish through the end of the year due to low loan availability and tightening credit conditions. The Bangkok Post reports that private sector operators think that 2026 is going to be another challenging year.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Food Delivery), Khaosod English (Bubble Tea), Bangkok Post (Motorcycles), Bangkok Post (Outlook)
International Relations: CN, KR
Prime Minister Anutin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 31 during the APEC summit. Xi praised the (new) government’s stand against casino policies. King Maha Vajiralongkorn is expected to visit China from November 13-17, the first official trip by the monarch in half a century of diplomatic ties. The government wants South Korea to increase labor quotas for workers and make the tourist entry procedure easier.
Read more: Xinhua (Xi Meeting), Khaosod English (Casino Policy), CGTN (Royal Visit), Cryptorank (APEC Summit), Thai PBS (South Korea), Korea Herald (CEPA Talks)
Legal and Regulatory Roundup
The National Anti-Corruption Commission started looking into former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin and cabinet members regarding the reallocation of loan repayment funds for the 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme. Former minister Witoon Nambutr has been sentenced to three years in prison for demanding a 30-million-baht bribe. The Central Bankruptcy Court will declare former Stark Corporation executive Vonnarat Tangkaravakoon bankrupt, and assets are going to be distributed to 3,417 creditors with claims of 131.4 billion baht. Police arrested 25 people in two major scam operations on October 30, including five in Pattaya and 20 Chinese nationals in Chiang Mai. Charoen Pokphand Foods filed a defamation lawsuit seeking 200 million baht against activist Witoon Lianchamroon over claims that connected the company to an invasive blackchin tilapia outbreak.
Read more: Bangkok Post (NACC Probe), Bangkok Post (Conviction), Bangkok Post (Bankruptcy), Khaosod English(Scam Arrests), Bangkok Post (E-Cigarettes), Mongabay (CPF Lawsuit)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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