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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
China Playing All Sides
Migrant Workers Funding the Regime
Russia Delivers First ‘Foreign’ Mi-38s
December Election Push Maintains Skepticism
Nuclear Dreams Meet LDC Reality
Scam Crackdown Fools Few
Garment Sector Unravels Under Tariffs
Avocado Ambitions Target India
Banned Cosmetics Found for Sale
Infrastructure Repairs Continue Post-Earthquake
Community Monitoring Results in Timber Seizure
China Playing All Sides
Leaked transcripts have been revealing of China’s statecraft along its 2,000km border with Myanmar. Diplomats have been hard at work to protect investments in rare earths and the Bay of Bengal pipeline, while rebel groups are busy battling the junta and each other. Western powers have mostly remained on the sidelines of the four-year civil war, but Beijing has been able to maintain its interests by working pragmatically with whoever controls territory. The Belt and Road Initiative continues, despite the chaos.
Read more: The Economist (Leaked Transcript), Militarnyi (Russian Cooperation)
Migrant Workers Funding the Regime
The junta was able to collect an incremental trillion kyat (about half a billion USD) in the 2024-25 fiscal year, mostly by forcing overseas workers to send 25% of their income home through regime banks. This means that tax revenue jumped by about a third on the backs of migrants who fled economic collapse, only to fund the government that caused it.
Read more: Myanmar Now
Russia Delivers First ‘Foreign’ Mi-38s
The Air Force inducted three Russian Mi-38T helicopters and two Chinese Y-8F-200W transports on November 7, making the country the first foreign operator to deploy the Mi-38. The €80 million contract signed in January 2020 was finally delivered after repeated delays because of the coup, and for “helicopter refinement.” Each Mi-38T has the capacity to carry 40 troops or 5 tons of cargo – useful for both military operations and fleeing (not that that might be necessary, of course). The deployment comes following six Su-30SME fighters that have previously been delivered.
Read more: Militarnyi (First Operator), Army Recognition (Induction Ceremony)
December Election Push Maintains Skepticism
The junta is still moving ahead with the elections they’ve scheduled for the end of next year/ the beginning of next. These are the first elections to be held since they annulled the 2020 results and took power. With the NLD having been dissolved, and Aung San Suu Kyi still “indisposed,” nearly 60 (mostly either tiny or military-aligned) parties have registered to participate. The regime passed a law that makes election disruption punishable by death; nothing says “free and fair” like the threat of execution. International media have been invited to cover the polls, although AFP is the only agency that still has a local bureau. ASEAN says it won’t send observers, the EU and UN are calling it a legitimacy charade, and more than 90 artists, musicians, and teenagers have been held so far under the new election legislation. Myanmar was ranked third globally for jailing journalists in 2024.
Read more: Britannica (Election Overview), Asia Media Centre (Media Access), NHK World (Activist Warning), Myanmar Now (Detentions), Asia Media Centre (Press Freedom)
Nuclear Dreams Meet LDC Reality
Min Aung Hlaing set up a committee to make plans to get the country out of its “Least Developed Country” status while at the same time claiming that his government has been making nuclear progress with Russia’s Rosatom. The “Smooth Transition Strategy” requires progress reports every six months, a pace that would be ambitious even under the best of circumstances.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Scam Crackdown Fools Few
The military’s 10-day October operation against scam centers put 150 buildings in the crosshairs for demolition, and resulted in 2,000 operators running to Thailand. The timing, right after the U.S. indicted Prince Group’s Chen Zhi and grabbed his $15 billion in ill-gotten Bitcoin, suggests image management might be more important than crime fighting. Chen allegedly ran compounds with backing from Chinese intelligence services, perhaps making the crackdown a little more delicate. China has stayed quiet while the junta has tried to balance public relations with trying to maintain revenue that’s been pouring out of these operations. The crackdown will likely result in minimal impact on actual crime networks.
Read more: Nikkei Asia (Military Operation), Mizzima (U.S. Indictment), Myanmar Now (Building Demolition)
Garment Sector Unravels Under Tariffs
America’s 40% tariff on garments crushed competitiveness when measured against Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Indonesia. Six Yangon factories have closed since August, 56 of 589 member factories have suspended operations entirely, and the predominantly female workforce is suffering both reduced hours and wages. Political instability, labor scrutiny, and poor infrastructure are compounding the crisis. Unfortunately, the sector that once drove exports is now a major driver of unemployment.
Read more: Fibre2Fashion
Avocado Ambitions Target India
The Trade Promotion Organization invited India to invest in avocado processing and is making plans for 200 tonnes of frozen exports this year. After shipping 8,000 tonnes in 2024-2025, expectations for the year ahead have risen to 10,000 tonnes. At the moment, most avocado exports are directed to Thailand, but India’s market is calling with a rising middle class and a growing appetite.
Read more: Global New Light of Myanmar
Banned Cosmetics Found for Sale
The FDA has found unregistered cosmetics containing Rhodamine B and lead available for sale in local markets. Health risks range from skin irritation to organ damage. Authorities are making noise about strict prohibitions under public health laws, but enforcement is another matter.
Read more: The Star
Infrastructure Repairs Continue Post-Earthquake
Construction Minister Myo Thant went to look at damaged staff housing reconstruction in Mandalay and Sagaing. Ayeyawady Bridge has reopened for vehicles weighing less than 25 tonnes, but structural repairs are ongoing. Seven buildings in Sagaing are still awaiting reconstruction.
Read more: Myanmar ITV
Community Monitoring Results in Timber Seizure
Authorities seized 82 tonnes of illegal timber, including almost 17 tonnes of teak, and have charged sixteen miscreants. The Forest Department’s community monitoring system is on the job to keep an eye on the logging trade even as the conflict provides handy cover for timber smuggling.
Read more: The Star
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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