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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Political Turbulence Clouds Economic Agenda
Economy Struggles, Growth Forecasts Dim
Foreign Investment Push to Unlock Cash
Tourism Sector Demands More Help
Corruption Crackdown Targets Grey Businesses
VAT Hike Plan Causes Angst
Immigration to Tighten Visa Rules
Infrastructure Projects Are Go
Digital Economy Drives Innovation
Swedish Trade Relations
Real Estate and Retail Mixed
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Political Turbulence Clouds Economic Agenda
The pressure is rising on Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai-led government just 47 days into office. The opposition is pulling together evidence for a no-confidence motion, and Anutin is downplaying speculation that Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun is in position to be a candidate for PM next. The People’s Party has set December 12 as a red line, threatening a no-confidence motion if parliament isn’t recalled for charter amendment discussions before the planned January House dissolution. Political tensions have been on the rise since the Constitutional Court’s removal of Paetongtarn Shinawatra from the premiership, and legal setbacks for former PM Thaksin, including a Supreme Court order to pay 17.6 billion baht in taxes and a revived lese majeste appeal, are adding fuel to the fire. These legal plays are certain to weaken Pheu Thai’s electoral prospects; forecasts show the party could be left with as few as 50 safe seats in next year’s March election.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Candidate Speculation), Bangkok Post (December Deadline), Khaosod English (Thaksin Setbacks), Bangkok Post (Electoral Impact)
Economy Struggles, Growth Forecasts Dim
The economy inflated a tepid 1.2% in Q3, the slowest tempo in four years, forcing the IMF to once again cut its 2026 growth projections. The government was able to pass a 3.78 trillion baht budget for fiscal 2027 with a reduced deficit of 788 billion baht. Household debt is still above 80% of GDP, keeping a lid on consumption, and manufacturing output has weakened. S&P Global Ratings affirmed Thailand’s BBB+ rating with a stable outlook. The chorus of voices saying that reforms are needed to avoid being overtaken by ASEAN neighbors is growing louder.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Growth Warnings), Bangkok Post (IMF Forecast), Trading View (Budget Plans), Bangkok Post (S&P Rating), Asian News Network (TDRI Warning)
Foreign Investment Push to Unlock Cash
Finance Minister Ekniti will propose a “Thailand Fast Pass” initiative to the Economic Cabinet to expedite more than 70 stalled foreign investment projects worth 300 billion baht ($9.2 billion). The streamlined approval process will get rid of bureaucratic delays in immigration, permitting, and the need to deal with multiple agencies for projects that have already received Board of Investment certificates. Investment promotion applications totaled 1.3 trillion baht in the first nine months of 2025, almost double last year’s number. Reportedly, 470 billion baht is ready for immediate deployment but remains blocked by domestic approval processes. The BOI approved four new data center projects valued at 100 billion baht and restarted six previously stalled projects. The government also greenlit a 2-gigawatt direct power purchase agreement scheme for data centers starting January 2026. The strong baht continues to hurt export competitiveness, the Commerce Minister says we should expect shipments to slow in 2026.
Read more: Khaosod English (Fast Pass), Bangkok Post (Investment Details), Retail News Asia (Data Centers), Reccessary (Power Agreements)
Tourism Sector Demands More Help
Five tourism associations met PM Anutin on November 20, warning that Thailand risks losing its status as a top destination. The delegation put forward a few immediate proposals, including a global safety campaign, air ticket incentives, and tax support. Long-term goals include the reform of tourism laws, helping to improve national service standards, rolling out improved infrastructure in secondary cities, and promoting a refreshed national brand identity. TAT is launching campaigns themed “Not Distant, Like Siblings” to promote Thai-Chinese cultural ties and expects approximately 5 million Chinese visitors for 2025, with hopes for 11.66 million long-haul visitors in 2026 as United Airlines, EVA Air, and Thai Airways increase the number of available routes.
Read more: Asian News Network (Industry Warning), Travel and Tour World (Arrival Numbers), Khaosod English(China Boost), Travel and Tour World (Long-haul Growth)
Corruption Crackdown Targets Grey Businesses
The Anti-Corruption Organization of Thailand accused powerful political and bureaucratic figures of taking bribes and protecting criminal networks, claiming investigations implicate senior officials, including ministers, a former police chief, and more than 200 police officers in online gambling and money laundering. The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking launched “Zero Corruption: JSCCIB and Friends Won’t Tolerate It” with a six-month quick impact plan, warning that unresolved corruption is an unneeded drag on the economy. The government is also looking into fraudulent use of Thai ID cards by foreigners and alleged bribes for police promotions ranging from 5-7 million baht.
Read more: AG Brief (Elite Protection), Bangkok Post (PM Response), Bangkok Post (Private Sector), Thai Examiner(Police Corruption)
VAT Hike Plan Causes Angst
Finance Minister Ekniti says the plan is to gradually raise the value-added tax up to 8.5% (from 7%) by 2028, with a full increase to 10% by 2030. PM Anutin later pooh-poohed the idea and insisted the VAT will stay at 7% while the economy is still recovering.
Read more: Bangkok Post (VAT Plan), Nation Thailand (Anutin Denial), Trading View (Import Duties), Bangkok Post (Price Complaints)
Immigration to Tighten Visa Rules
The Immigration Bureau increased screening for foreigners to try to prevent visa misuse, saying that travelers making more than two “visa runs” (which often don’t involve visas at all) without a valid reason may be denied entry and will require a visa for future returns. Just under 3,000 people were denied entry in 2025 for visa-waiver misuse. The policy comes alongside a rise in drug-related crimes and the illegal employment of foreigners; new rules will try to prevent abuse of the 90-day visa-free policy that allows nationals from 93 countries to enter for 60 days, extendable by 30 days. The tighter inspections could result in increased delays at passport control during peak time. Separately, this week authorities arrested a Russian national in Phuket identified as Aleksey Lukashev, a GRU officer wanted by the FBI for 2016 U.S. election interference.
Read more: VnExpress (Visa Rules), Khaosod English (Investment Scam), The Insider (GRU Arrest)
Infrastructure Projects Are Go
The State Railway of Thailand is moving ahead with three new routes in its double-track railway project, with proposals for the Chumphon-Surat Thani (30.4 billion baht), Surat Thani-Hat Yai Junction-Songkhla (66.27 billion baht), and Hat Yai Junction-Padang Besar (7.77 billion baht) routes set for cabinet approval next month. The Transport Ministry is resolving a contract dispute on the 224-billion-baht high-speed inter-airport rail project linking Don Mueang, Suvarnabhumi, and U-Tapao airports. The Cabinet will have to decide on proposed contract changes. The Royal Thai Armed Forces completed a flood management project on the Ping River, with the government planning more than 100 billion baht in national water management investments over the next 7 years. EGAT will invest 3 billion baht to upgrade the national transmission network outside the Eastern Economic Corridor to support data-center investors.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Railway Projects), Railway News (Signaling Contract), Bangkok Post (Airport Rail), Bangkok Post (Flood Management), Nation Thailand (Grid Upgrade)
Digital Economy Drives Innovation
The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission will submit the “Net Khon La Khrueng” project for cabinet approval, targeting over 14 million welfare cardholders with 40 gigabytes of high-speed internet monthly for three months at 160 baht. The Office of the Insurance Commission set out AI Governance Guidelines 2025 on November 20, setting a framework that is intended to balance consumer protection with innovation in insurance. The Ministry of Public Health approved four measures, including the integration of public health data nationwide and drafted a Digital Health Act to allow health data sharing, AI adoption, and telemedicine services. Thai banks are assessing quantum computing, trying to figure out what the impact might be and how to mitigate it.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Internet Subsidy), Bangkok Post (Data Centers), Asia Insurance Review (AI Guidelines), Digital Health News (Digital Health), Bangkok Post (Quantum Computing)
Swedish Trade Relations
Thailand and Sweden’s Commerce Minister met with Swedish Ambassador Anna Hammargren on November 15 to talk trade through the Thailand-Sweden Strategic Partnership and the Thailand-EU FTA. Electric vehicle exports from Shenzhen to Thailand almost doubled YoY. Commerce Minister Suphajee met with Royce Nicolaisen, CEO of Otis McAllister Inc, on November 20 to discuss how to sell more Thai rice into the U.S.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Sweden), Global Times (Shenzhen Trade), Bangkok Post (U.S. Rice)
Real Estate and Retail Mixed
SC Asset Corporation is adapting to the sluggish housing market by offering rent-to-own options for customers unable to secure mortgages, allowing potential buyers to build equity while living in their homes. The Greater Bangkok Housing Developers’ Sentiment Index rose to 45.8 in Q3 2025, up 6.5 points from Q2. Central Pattana plans to open “The Central,” a 21-billion-baht retail and mixed-use development in northern Bangkok in Q4 2026, on a site between Vibhavadi Rangsit and Phahon Yothin Roads.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Rent-to-own), Bangkok Post (Developer Sentiment), FTN News (Central Pattana), Bangkok Post (Thailand Post)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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