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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
NUG Cryptocurrency Rises 5x on Listing
Central Bank Renews Cryptocurrency Warning
Condemnation Continues for Sham Election
Military Offensives Ahead of Polls
Ta’ang Rebels Face Accusations of Betrayal
Renewed Crackdown on Scam Centers
China Helps Build Sanctions-Evading System
Rare Earth Mining Extracts a Heavy Toll
Trump Admin Ends Temporary Protected Status
India’s Myanmar Gambit
Junta Boss Gifts Cronies With Honors
Humanitarian and Public Health Issues
Economic and Trade Updates
NUG Cryptocurrency Rises 5x on Listing
The National Unity Government’s cryptocurrency tokens launched on MEXC exchange on November 14, and the Spring Development Bank token’s value jumped nearly fivefold within six days, from $0.0012 to $0.0072 (giving the token a market cap of about $725 million). SDB CEO Kelvin T. is crediting the boom to market demand and revolutionary momentum. The NUG created SDB in July 2023 in an attempt to create an independent financial system, raising nearly $30 million to support resistance efforts. The NUG expects to further expand through partnerships with global crypto exchanges like Binance and Bybit, with the Minister of Planning, Finance and Investment going out of his way to say that the bank serves the interests of the Myanmar people, not just the NUG.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Central Bank Renews Cryptocurrency Warning
In what is surely a completely unrelated development, the Central Bank of Myanmar has renewed warnings against the use and trade of cryptocurrencies, telling the public to avoid buying, selling, transferring, or holding digital assets. The CBM said that it has not authorized any domestic financial institution to run cryptocurrency-related services. The central bank helpfully said that several other governments, including China, India, and Pakistan, do not recognize cryptocurrency as legal tender.
Read more: Mizzima
Condemnation Continues for Sham Election
The Junta is pushing forward with elections that they plan to begin on December 28, 2025, even though they currently only control a little more than a fifth of the country and have been met with uniform rejection from opposition groups, international observers, and the Burmese diaspora. US lawmakers released a bipartisan statement calling on the Trump administration to denounce the vote and appoint a Special Representative for Burma. ASEAN remains noncommittal, and China appears quietly supportive of the process for self-interested reasons. The Union Election Commission has dissolved more than 40 opposition parties. Factory owners in Yangon are pressuring workers to support the USDP (the Junta’s proxy), and employers are organizing voter registration drives. Workers fear reprisals if they don’t play along. The junta has ejected former PPP leader Thet Thet Khine from the polls over alleged debts of $47.6 million, using newly introduced Election Law rules to target “untrustworthy” candidates.
Read more: DW (Election Dynamics), HFAC (US Condemnation), Irrawaddy (Worker Pressure), Irrawaddy (PPP Disqualification), East Asia Forum (Analysis), Education International (Teacher Union)
Military Offensives Ahead of Polls
The junta has opened several fronts to try and clear territory for voting, sending more than a thousand troops in four columns of 250 each to Pakokku District, Magwe Region, while increasing the tempo of operations in Rakhine State near Kyaukphyu. Fighting has escalated near Kyaukphyu town and the Danyawaddy naval base. In Chin State, Chin Brotherhood Alliance forces recaptured Kanedi Mountain base from junta Infantry Battalion 269, killing about 100 regime troops. The military currently controls only Hakha and Tedim in Chin State. Revolutionary forces are keeping their grip on other townships, including Tunzan and Falam. Civilian casualties continue mounting from airstrikes that appear to be targeting schools, churches, and medical facilities in Karenni State, with at least 55 deaths and more than 40 injuries recorded between June and September.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Pakokku), Irrawaddy (Rakhine), Mizzima (Chin State), Daily Sun (Airstrikes), Mizzima(Mawchi)
Ta’ang Rebels Face Accusations of Betrayal
The Ta’ang National Liberation Army is drawing criticism for allowing junta troops to re-enter Mogoke and Mongmit townships in Mandalay and Shan State as part of a Chinese-mediated truce. TNLA announced its withdrawal from these townships on October 27, after managing to gain control of them with the support of allied resistance groups. TNLA leaders then, strangely, informed allies that they will be allowing the military regime to return by the end of November without any fighting. Local resistance forces loyal to the National Unity Government have formed an emergency command to figure out how to keep this from happening. About four-fifths of Mogoke’s population has fled town, and remaining residents are reportedly feeling betrayed by the TNLA’s decision.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Renewed Crackdown on Scam Centers
Authorities arrested nearly 1,600 foreign nationals over five days in another crackdown on internet scam operations, particularly in the Shwe Kokko area along the Thai border. The November 19 raid on the Shwe Kokko compound resulted in 346 arrests, primarily Chinese nationals. The Karen National Liberation Army separately seized a scam compound in Myawaddy Township from the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army on November 24, finding more than 5,000(!) foreign workers at the site. The crackdown comes after US sanctions on October 14 against Prince Group leader Chen Zhi, who allegedly controls more than $15 billion in illicit Bitcoin and has connections to China’s Ministry of Public Security and Ministry of State Security.
Read more: Daily Asian Age (Prince Group), Asian News (Shwe Kokko), Irrawaddy (KNLA Seizure), Daily Times(Overview), GNLM (Indian Repatriation), OMM Com News (Indian Recruitment)
China Helps Build Sanctions-Evading System
China is allegedly helping the junta build a digital payments system based on China’s digital yuan (e-CNY) to get around US sanctions. Chinese engineers are reportedly creating an electronic kyat using infrastructure from Huawei and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which could allow transactions through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, bypassing SWIFT. The pilot program for digital kyat was announced in June and allows fund movements through ICBC to convert digital kyat into digital yuan. The junta already uses CIPS for some trading with China, but a digital kyat could allow for larger-scale sanctions evasion.
Read more: Wall Street Journal
Rare Earth Mining Extracts a Heavy Toll
China’s dominance of 90% of processed rare earth products leans on Myanmar’s Kachin State, where mining activities are resulting in environmental damage and further afield across mainland Southeast Asia. Satellite analyses show hundreds of mining sites are in operation. In 2024, Kachin State exported 34,484 metric tons of rare earths to China, with Chinese involvement including military support for the junta and coercive diplomacy with local ethnic groups like the Kachin Independence Army.
Read more: Yale E360 (Environmental Impact), The Diplomat (China’s Role), Eurasia Review (US Strategy)
Trump Admin Ends Temporary Protected Status
The Trump administration announced the revocation of “Temporary Protected Status” for nearly 4,000 Myanmar nationals living in the US since the coup, a proclamation that will come into effect in 60 days. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem claims the situation has improved, pointing to the junta’s plans for elections as indicative of progress. Since Trump’s presidency began, more than 675,000 people have lost TPS protections and therefore, face the risk of deportation. Human Rights Watch’s Asia advocacy director John Sifton disputes the US administration’s claims, arguing that the political situation is still unstable and the upcoming elections are a facade.
Read more: Axios (Overview), Straits Times (Details), India Today (Impact)
India’s Myanmar Gambit
India is running high-level negotiations with the military to introduce new security measures. The stated purpose is to protect Sittwe Port and advance the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project alongside the Trilateral Highway, moves that will improve India’s foothold against China’s influence. India is considering cooperation with the United States to extract rare earth minerals in Kachin State, supporting transportation routes and doing some of the mineral processing before export.
Read more: Modern Diplomacy
Junta Boss Gifts Cronies With Honors
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing gave honorary titles to more than 1,200 cronies and allies during National Day celebrations, apparently consolidating loyalty ahead of the elections. Recipients included Maung Maung Naing of Sky One Construction, awarded for Excellent Performance in Social Field (Second Class), and Kyaw Min Oo, decorated for Excellent Performance in Social Field (Third Class). Other honorees came from industries including construction, banking, and the arms trade.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Humanitarian and Public Health Issues
A cholera outbreak on the India-Myanmar border has killed nine people, forcing Mizoram State authorities to place a two-month ban on cross-border movement starting November 13. Local youth organizations report 90 infections, with five people in serious condition. The ban could disrupt the flow of goods into Myanmar, possibly making food shortages worse. A study by the University of Portsmouth found that 71% of wells in the Ayeyarwady Delta contained arsenic in excess of WHO drinking water limits, endangering 12 million residents.
Read more: Mizzima (Cholera), Vision of Humanity (Displacement), Mirage News (Water Contamination), Relief Web (Rohingya)
Economic and Trade Updates
Food prices rose overall by 1.8% in October 2025, driven mostly by increases in rice, (some) pulses, bananas, and tomatoes; year-on-year prices fell by 3.9% due to lower costs in vegetables, cooking oil, and (some other) pulses. Fishery exports for the financial year 2025-2026 totaled more than 165,000 metric tonnes, raking in more than $200 million, with over 85,750 metric tonnes sent by sea valued at approximately $131.8 million. The country is expanding seafood exports to 40 countries, including China, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Japan. November 22, the sixth day of the 60th Myanmar Gems Emporium, saw the sale of 716 jade lots out of 1,000 available, with 443 pearl lots and 67 gemstone lots sold. Foreign direct investment inflows have dropped sharply since the coup, but as it stands today, China and Singapore are the largest investors even as overall investment from everywhere continues to fall.
Read more: Relief Web (Food Prices), GNLM (Fishery Exports), Eleven Myanmar (Gems Emporium), Myanmar Now (FDI)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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