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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Sham Elections and Repression
Hospital Bombing Kills Dozens in Rakhine
Scam Center Crackdown Raises Skepticism
Aid Weaponized
Military Advances While Economy Sputters
Fuel Import Scandal Triggers Repayment Order
Investment and Trade
Belarus Offers an Economic Lifeline
China in Transport and AI Cooperation
Battery Locomotives Make Their Debut
Sham Elections and Repression
The military continues to push for a three-phase election starting December 28, continuing into January 2026, despite sustained international condemnation. The polls don’t really have any legitimacy as the National League for Democracy, led by imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi, was dissolved for refusing to register with the junta-controlled Election Commission. Voting has already been canceled in 56 of 330 townships over issues of insecurity. The junta/military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party is expected to bulldoze the competition. The junta has also weaponized the Election Protection Law, filing 95 charges against critics and sentencing activists to prison terms up to 49 years ahead of the vote. International observers, including the UN, EU, and Australia, have said that the elections aren’t going to be free or fair, and are going to be run under conditions of fear, violence, and repression.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Political Trick), Myanmar Now (Legitimacy Issues), International Crisis Group (One-Sided Polls), Mizzima (International Response), Fortify Rights (Criminalizing Dissent), AP News (Silent Strike), Mizzima (Nationwide Participation), NBC News (Activist Charges)
Hospital Bombing Kills Dozens in Rakhine
An airstrike on Mrauk-U hospital in Rakhine State killed at least 34 people, including both patients and staff. A jet dropped two 500-pound bombs on the facility, which was the primary healthcare center in an area controlled by the Arakan Army. The attack is the 67th verified attack on healthcare facilities in 2025 and the deadliest one yet. UN rights chief Volker Turk said the bombing could be considered a war crime and demanded accountability. The WHO also condemned the bombing; head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said there’s widespread damage to health services. ASEAN and Malaysia separately condemned the attack, calling for an immediate stop to violence against civilians.
Read more: AP News (Attack Details), The Telegraph (War Crime), WHO (Healthcare Attacks), The Star (ASEAN Condemnation)
Scam Center Crackdown Raises Skepticism
The junta set up a committee to fight telecom fraud and online gambling this week. It’s chaired by Home Affairs Minister Lt-Gen Tun Tun Naung. Authorities also destroyed 341 of 635 illegal buildings in KK Park and arrested 232 Chinese nationals. The regime claims that it’s already repatriated 70,135 foreigners to 54 countries since late 2023. Critics say the junta is complicit by way of its alliances with militias and border guard units; scam operations have been relocating, not disappearing.
Read more: OCCRP (Repatriation Claims), The Irrawaddy (Junta Complicity), Eleven Myanmar (Demolitions), Mizzima (Committee Formation), NDTV (Indian Rescues), Tempo (Indonesian Repatriation), The Vibes (Malaysian Operation), Kathmandu Post (Nepali Victims)
Aid Weaponized
The United Nations thinks that more than 16 million people are going to need life-saving help next year. The World Food Programme thinks that more than 12 million are going to face acute hunger, including a million at emergency levels needing lifesaving support. Progressive Voice accused the junta of systematically blocking and profiting from humanitarian aid, saying they’d found diversion of ASEAN-branded aid to military warehouses and theft of medicines. The UN humanitarian response plan for 2026 expects to be made up of $890 million to help 4.9 million vulnerable, down from $1.4 billion asked for in 2025 because of global funding shortages.
Read more: WFP (Hunger Crisis), UN OCHA (2026 Needs), Mizzima (Aid Weaponization)
Military Advances While Economy Sputters
Junta troops pushed into Singu Township after taking control of Madaya in northern Mandalay, using the Chinese-run Dongmei Park scam compound as a base for operations. The World Bank released a dismal outlook for the economy, highlighting constraints from the March earthquake, conflict, weak domestic demand, and power shortages, with only 45% of quake-affected companies returning to pre-disaster levels. The Bank expects to see a modest 3% rebound in FY2026/27 driven by reconstruction, though challenges, including financing shortfalls and weak demand remain. Former Army officer Capt. Kaung Thu Win reported that 20,000 soldiers and 200 officials have deserted the military.
Read more: Myanmar Now (Military Advances), Mizzima (Thayet Clashes), Mizzima (Economic Outlook), The Hindu (Desertions)
Fuel Import Scandal Triggers Repayment Order
The regime ordered fuel importers to repay more than $257 million by January because of dollar manipulation that cost the state. Deputy Energy Minister Thant Sin was dismissed in November after investigations into irregularities, including dollar speculation and bribery. Companies that are getting repayment orders include Best Oil Co, Myat Metta Mon Co, Max Energy, and Denko, and if they don’t comply, they’ll be looking at criminal charges. The situation came to a head after the regime began imposing fuel import quotas in late 2022, requiring approval from the Foreign Exchange Supervisory Committee for import quantities and dollar amounts.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Investment and Trade
The Myanmar Investment Commission has approved 14 new projects worth about $57 million. The projects should result in about 4,200 jobs. The approvals included capital increases for six ongoing projects and five new foreign investments. Singapore, China, and Thailand remain the top investors. The country is diversifying food exports, shipping noodles to ASEAN markets and value-added products like dried vegetables, sesame powder, and honey to Japan and South Korea.
Read more: Eleven Myanmar (Investment Approvals), GNLM (Rice Exports), GNLM (Food Products)
Belarus Offers an Economic Lifeline
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has received military and economic support from Belarus as the economy continues to fall apart under his rule. President Aleksandr Lukashenko visited Naypyidaw in late November and signed 16 memoranda of understanding on military cooperation, trade, and investment. Lukashenko said that Belarus would supply Myanmar’s needs in a swap for necessary goods, with proposals for agricultural trade including rice and rubber from Myanmar in exchange for dairy and butter from Belarus. Belarusian firms signed contracts to supply medicine worth $9 million at a bilateral economic forum in Yangon. Local exporters say they’re unsure about how effective this trade will be because of Belarus’s distance. Official data shows no Belarusian investment in Myanmar as of mid-2025.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
China in Transport and AI Cooperation
A delegation led by Deputy Minister Dr. Aung Zeya visited Nanning on December 5 to talk about cooperation on digital technology, including plans to create an international AI cooperation hub within ASEAN. The Chongqing Airport Group hosted an aviation and cultural tourism conference on December 9, with cargo flights starting right away and passenger flights scheduled twice weekly on Mondays and Fridays. China Postal Airlines introduced a Chongqing-Yangon cargo route on December 9.
Read more: Myanmar ITV (AI Cooperation), Myanmar ITV (Tourism Conference), Xinhua (Cargo Route)
Battery Locomotives Make Their Debut
Myanma Railways started service of a six-axle battery-powered locomotive in November on the Naypyidaw-Mandalay line, traveling about five hours including time for station stops. The national operator plans to add 11 more battery-powered locomotives by next April. The project was funded by way of an emergency government allocation for the 2024-2025 fiscal year. The locomotive is a modernized YDM-4 diesel model that’s been overhauled in the Naypyidaw facility using technology from China National Heavy Machinery.
Read more: Rolling Stock World
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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