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Headlines:
Economy Pushes To Double-Digit Growth
Rare Earth Export Ban Reshapes Industry
Long Thanh Airport Nearing Launch
Gia Binh Airport Gets Green Light
AI Law Launches With Innovation Fund
Restrictions Shorten Press Freedom Leash
Capital Markets Eye Breakthrough Year
Trade Under Tariff and Market Pressures
Free Trade Zones Get a Push
Transport Infrastructure
Energy Transition Gets International Support
Investment Sees Mixed Signals
Digital Transformation Reshapes Operations
Economy Pushes To Double-Digit Growth
Vietnam’s economy continues to chug along, and it seems like it might be able to clear 10% GDP growth by the end of the year. Exports were up 16.1% to $430 billion by November. The government continues to say it intends to find double-digit yearly expansion from 2026 to 2030 as it pushes for upper-middle-income status by 2030 and high-income standing by 2045. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group lifted its GDP forecasts to 7.7% for 2025 and 8.2% for 2026 on stronger-than-expected export performance in electronics and machinery. The challenge will be getting enough capital deployed for a growth model centered on science, technology, and innovation rather than the resource-driven expansion of yesteryear.
Read more: OAN News (GDP Performance), EN VN Economy (MUFG Forecast), Vietnam Plus (Investment Drivers), Vietnam News (PM Statement)
Rare Earth Export Ban Reshapes Industry
Parliament approved amendments to the geology and minerals law on December 11, banning raw rare earth exports and restricting refined material shipments starting January 1, 2026. Only state-designated enterprises can explore, mine, and process rare earths, which are now classified as a strategic resource under state control. The country is home to an estimated 3.5 million metric tons of reserves, sixth globally, but has struggled to build a viable industry due to regulatory delays and limited refining capacity. The law mandates deep processing linked to a modern industrial ecosystem to support the development of a domestic value chain, though limited refining capabilities (for now) mean that short-term effects on global supply will be minimal. LS Eco Energy of South Korea announced plans to invest $19.2 million to establish rare earth metal refining facilities in Ho Chi Minh City.
Read more: China Daily HK (Law Details), VN Express (Processing Focus), Digitimes (Reserve Estimates), EN VN Economy (LS Eco Investment)
Long Thanh Airport Nearing Launch
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh ran his ninth inspection of Long Thanh International Airport, cracking the whip on construction teams to get the facility ready for its first technical flight on December 19. Vietnam Airlines’ Boeing 787 will be the bird for the technical test, running a full sequence of procedures to assess coordination with Tan Son Nhat Airport. The first phase of the $4.18 billion project will have the capacity for 25 million passengers and 1.2 million tons of cargo annually, designed to ICAO 4F standards. Air traffic controllers ran simulations for emergency situations, and all navigation systems, communications equipment, and runway facilities are operational. Phase two expansion planned for 2035 will increase capacity to 50 million passengers, ultimately up to 100 million by 2050.
Read more: EN VN Economy (PM Inspection), VN Express (Technical Flight), Vietnam Insider (ATC Readiness), The Investor (Aviation Economy)
Gia Binh Airport Gets Green Light
Parliament has given the go ahead for an investment in Gia Binh International Airport in Bac Ninh province. It will be the largest privately-invested airport project in Vietnam’s history, with an estimated cost of almost seven and a half billion. The facility, also expected to be classified as an ICAO 4F airport, is designed to handle 30 million passengers and 1.6 million tons of cargo annually by 2030. The airport is expected to meet the highest international service standards. Construction will integrate advanced technology for operations and pursue net-zero emissions commitments by 2030, creating a new international gateway to alleviate pressure on Noi Bai International Airport.
Read more: EN VN Economy (Project Details), The Investor (Growth Impact)
AI Law Launches With Innovation Fund
Parliament passed a new law on Artificial Intelligence with 429 (out of 434) votes in favor. The law will come into force at the beginning of March next year, and sets out the plan for a National AI Development Fund, an AI Voucher system, and a sandbox for the development of “sensitive” applications. It will also categorize AI systems based on risk levels with tighter rules on high-risk applications in finance and healthcare. The government also finished up a draft decree on administrative penalties for crypto assets; final submission is expected in the next few months.
Read more: Vietnam Net (AI Law), EN VN Economy (Crypto Penalties), The Investor (Crypto Regulation), Fintechnews(Market Size)
Restrictions Shorten Press Freedom Leash
Parliament approved legislation forcing journalists to disclose sources under specific conditions and prohibiting online dissemination of “anti-state” information staring in July 2026. Journalists will be required to reveal sources when demanded requested by the public security ministry for investigative reasons, and a new cybersecurity law explicitly defines actions as “against the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.” Reporters Without Borders said the law complicates the ability of journalists to report freely in a country that already sits 173rd out of 180 in the 2025 World Press Freedom Index.
Read more: UCA News (Law Details), RSF (RSF Statement), Asian News (Journalist Exile)
Capital Markets Eye Breakthrough Year
The VN-Index rose 38% in 2025 on average daily volume of nearly VND30 trillion, and a market capitalization nearing VND10 quadrillion. There are increasingly louder calls for a shift from rigid credit quotas to risk-based supervision by 2028. The capital markets are going to need an overhaul/ restructuring to deal with new (and newish) financial instruments like green bonds and tokenized securities to succeed in pulling in more capital. A new central counterparty mechanism is also expected to launch in early 2027 to reduce settlement risks. A 0.1% tax on digital asset transfers is going into effect on July 1.
Read more: Vietnam News (SSC Report), Vietnam Insider (Market Selloff), Vietnam Net (2026 Pillars), Binance (Crypto Tax)
Trade Under Tariff and Market Pressures
A high dependence on six main export markets is leaving the nation vulnerable to policy shocks. The U.S. makes up a third of exports, followed by the EU at 15%, China at 14%, and ASEAN at 10%. The Ministry of Industry and Trade wants to push exports to proactively find new markets to reduce an over-reliance on the old standbys. Shrimp exports in particular felt pressure from a new U.S. preliminary anti-dumping duty of up to 35.29% announced on November 15, with the final ruling expected early next year, threatening $731 million in shrimp sales that have grown 8% in the past year.
Read more: Vietnam Net (Market Diversification), VOV English (Shrimp Tariffs)
Free Trade Zones Get a Push
Parliament has approved the construction of a free-trade zone in Ho Chi Minh City in a move that will allow special mechanisms for investment, finance, trade, services, and (highly-skilled) labor. Projects within the zone will benefit from foreign currency transactions, as well as exemptions from land-auction and bidding requirements, a 20-year-long 10% corporate income tax holiday, four years of tax exemption, and a 50% personal income tax cut for high-skilled workers. Hai Phong city introduced a vision for its Free Trade Zone that will take advantage of existing industrial and transport infrastructure, with nearly 150 participants, including international investors, showing up for the launch event. Hai Phong has already brought in more than $50 billion in registered capital from 50 countries as an FDI destination.
Read more: Vietnam News (HCMC Zone), Vietnam News (Hai Phong Zone)
Transport Infrastructure
Siemens Mobility has tied up a contract for high-speed trains with local company Vinspeed to deliver Velaro Novo trains and rail infrastructure, including signaling and safety technology, with trains capable of besting 400 km/h. Vinspeed received approval to build a 54-kilometer high-speed railway connecting downtown Ho Chi Minh City to southeastern coastal areas for $3.9 billion, a development that will drop the travel time from 1.5 hours to 20 minutes. HCM City approved adjustments to the Provincial Road 991 project, a 3.72 km road connecting National Highway 51 to Cai Mep-Thi Vai port with an estimated investment of $91.6 million.
Read more: EN VN Economy (Expressways), Market Screener (Siemens Contract), Azernews (HCMC Railway), EN VN Economy (Road 991)
Energy Transition Gets International Support
The French and Brazilian Embassies hosted a press conference in Hanoi to celebrate the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. Global warming projections have improved from 4°C in 2015 to 2.3-2.5°C post-COP30, though that’s still higher than the hoped-for 2° target. EU Ambassador Julien Guerrier announced a 430 million EUR support package for the Bac Ai pumped-storage hydropower project while touting the EU’s role as the largest climate finance provider, contributing 31.7 billion EUR in public funds and co-leading the Just Energy Transition Partnership to support an energy transition. The State Bank of Vietnam is putting the finishing touches on a draft decree that will offer a 2% annual interest rate subsidy for loans financing green, circular economy, and ESG-compliant projects. Quang Tri Authority approved investment for the Quang Trach III LNG Power Plant on December 1, using combined-cycle gas turbine technology with 1,500 MW capacity and a $1.6 billion investment. Nhon Trach 3 and 4 LNG-fired power plants were also given the go-ahead this week - those two have a combined capacity of 1,624 MW.
Read more: OAN News (International Support), Vietnam News (Interest Subsidy), Vietnam News (Quang Trach LNG), The Investor (Nhon Trach Plants)
Investment Sees Mixed Signals
Business automation led VC deal values with a 562% boom and agriculture saw an 857% increase in funding, but financial services got a 61% hammer down. M&A activity saw $2.3 billion in disclosed deal value from 218 transactions through October, with Real Estate making up 27%, Materials 20%, and Health Care 10% of deals. Domestic investors were the contributors of more than 30% of deal value, while most of the balance came from Singapore, Japan, the U.S., and South Korea. Government bond sales raised $514 million on December 17, the highest volume in six months, with cumulative 2025 sales hitting about $12B.
Read more: The Investor (VC/PE Decline), The Investor (M&A Recovery), Economic Times (Bond Auction)
Digital Transformation Reshapes Operations
Parliament set the wheels in motion toward a July 1 implementation of a digital transformation that will set out principles, policies, and responsibilities related to digital government, economy, and society. CMC Technology Group introduced a digital transformation ecosystem for grassroots public services at TECHFEST 2025, built around digital government (modernizing operations), digital society (improving citizen interaction), and the digital economy (promoting local products). Finally, parliament passed a new Cybersecurity Law giving the Ministry of Public Security extra powers over digital identity, data governance, and online content while mandating digital ID verification based on IP addresses and registration details.
Read more: VIR (Digital Transformation Law), Vietnam Net (CMC Ecosystem), Biometric Update (Cybersecurity Law)
That’s it for this week!
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Really solid roundup of Vietnam's infrastructure and industrial push. The rare earth export ban is the most strategically significant piece here, positioning Vietnam to capture more value domestically rather than exporting raw materials to be refined elsewhere. I worked on supply chain resilience projects a few years back and this kind of vertical integration move usually takes way longer to execute than policymakers expect, especially building out refining capacity. The parallel development of Long Thanh Airport and the high-speed rail network shows they're thinking about connectivity as a system rather than isolated projects, which is how you actually unlock economic growth. The 2% interest subsidy for green projects is a smart incentive structure compared to heavy-handed mandates, lets capital flow where it makes most sence economically.