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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Junta Stages Sham Election
ICJ Sets Rohingya Hearings
Cyberscam Crackdown Rings Hollow
Junta Jails Hundreds Before Vote
UN Keeps Kyaw Moe Tun
Junta Pushes Myitsone Restart
Minerals Race Heats Up
Platforms Yank Junta Propaganda
Norway Probes Telenor Data Handover
Junta Rebrands To Dodge Sanctions
Resistance Groups Form a New Alliance
Junta Stages Sham Election
The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party requires just 26% of elected seats to control parliament, because the 2008 Constitution reserves 25% for military appointees (25 plus the 26 = 51% control). The junta will run a multi-phase election starting on December 28 and into January 2026, while blocking 128 conflict townships from the polls. The regime dissolved the National League for Democracy after its 2020 landslide victory, and major opposition parties have been barred from participating. More than 200 people face prosecution under harsh election protection laws for social media criticism or organizing boycotts. International observers and ASEAN have refused to monitor the polls. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing says that refusing to vote is tantamount to rejecting democracy.
Read more: ANFREL (Election Analysis), The Times (Forced Voting), ABC Australia (Military Control), Irrawaddy(Boycott Warning), Digital Journal (Civil War Context)
ICJ Sets Rohingya Hearings
The International Court of Justice will hear arguments in the Rohingya genocide case from January 12-29, the first genocide case the court will adjudicate on its merits in more than a decade. Gambia, backed by the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, will put forward its case from January 12 to 15, and then Myanmar will make its defense from January 16 to 20. The proceedings will include closed witness hearings, setting potential precedents for future genocide cases, including South Africa’s case against Israel on Gaza. The case is rooted in Myanmar’s 2017 military campaign that forced about three-quarters of a million Rohingya to Bangladesh. A UN fact-finding mission decided the military’s actions were genocidal, but Myanmar says the claim is biased. Eleven countries, including Canada, France, and Germany, have filed declarations of intervention.
Read more: TBS News (ICJ Announcement), The Diplomat (Case Background), Reuters (Legal Framework), Mizzima(Hearing Schedule)
Cyberscam Crackdown Rings Hollow
At least 30 large-scale cyberscam compounds are still up and running, especially along the Thai border. Authorities made a big deal about enforcement at KK Park, saying they’d destroyed more than 400 buildings, but satellite images show that only 31 were fully destroyed. SpaceX says that’s it disabled Starlink units at scam sites, but internet access seems like it’s still generally available.
Read more: The 420 (Crackdown Analysis), Politico (Deportation Challenges), Nikkei Asia (US Scrutiny)
Junta Jails Hundreds Before Vote
The junta has arrested 229 people (201 men, 28 women) in 140 cases under the Law on the Protection of Multiparty Democratic General Elections. Those charged face three to ten years of prison, with the death penalty possible for the most serious violations. Arrestees include activists, journalists, filmmakers, and even minors for social media posts critical of the election. Protest leader Htet Myat Aung was arrested on December 14 and has reportedly suffered severe beatings in custody. The Asian Network for Free Elections criticized the law as a tool of repression designed to silence dissent and discourage protests. Fortify Rights says it’s a way to criminalize minor expressions and target ordinary citizens voicing criticism.
Read more: Mizzima (Arrest Numbers), Deccan Herald (Law Details), CNN (Activist Charges), Amnesty International(Rights Analysis)
UN Keeps Kyaw Moe Tun
The UN General Assembly adopted the Credentials Committee Report, allowing Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun to remain as Myanmar’s Permanent Representative. The Committee deferred its decision on competing credentials without a vote, enabling Kyaw Moe Tun to continue participating in UN meetings and representing opposition to the military dictatorship. He has delivered 76 statements during the 79th General Assembly and 48 statements during the ongoing 80th Session, mostly to ask the international community to reject the junta’s election as illegitimate.
Read more: Mizzima (Credentials Decision), Mizzima (UN Statement)
Junta Pushes Myitsone Restart
Plans are underway to restart the China-backed Myitsone hydropower project. The Kachin Independence Organization and its armed wing are still saying they don’t accept the idea. The dam project, brought to a stop in 2011 after protests about environmental risks and forced relocations, sits near the Sagaing Fault line in a high-risk seismic area. The junta is threatening legal action against anyone who comes out in opposition to state-authorized projects without “sufficient evidence.”
Read more: Irrawaddy (KIO Opposition), Mizzima (Legal Threats)
Minerals Race Heats Up
Myanmar’s rare earth minerals are mostly controlled by rebel groups, not the junta, creating opportunities for countries that want to secure supplies against China’s supply-chain dominance. The Kachin Independence Army disrupted Chinese operations by stopping collaborations with Chinese firms, opening a chance for other buyers. The US is looking into a hybrid approach including tariffs, diplomatic openings, and intelligence-sharing operations, to secure marginal access for themselves. India launched its National Critical Mineral Mission 2025 to process minerals independently and is looking for collaborations with mining companies.
Read more: Daily Asian Age
Platforms Yank Junta Propaganda
Facebook, YouTube, Twitch, and MediaFire have dropped propaganda accounts that were linked to the junta’s Ministry of Information and Directorate of Psychological Warfare after complaints from Justice for Myanmar. Accounts removed include Myanmar International Television and Yadanarpon Newspaper. Justice for Myanmar wants more action from Google/ YouTube (Alphabet), Apple, and other tech companies to get rid of junta propaganda.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Removals), Mizzima (Civil Society)
Norway Probes Telenor Data Handover
Norway’s Parliament opened an investigation into Telenor over allegations of exposing Myanmar opposition figures to arrest by handing over the personal data of 1,300 customers, including detained civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi, during its exit from Myanmar after the 2021 coup. The Scrutiny and Constitutional Affairs Committee called the case “extremely serious.” Telenor sold its Myanmar operation to Investcom PTE LTD in March 2022, saying it was obliged to do so by military order.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Parliament Investigation), Meyka (Privacy Implications)
Junta Rebrands To Dodge Sanctions
The Sentry and Justice for Myanmar says the junta is trying to get around sanctions by way of rebranding. The regime dissolved the State Administrative Council on July 31, 2025, forming the State Security and Peace Commission with the exact same senior leadership. The organizations want foreign governments to update sanctions to include the new commission and toughen up enforcement against those who enable the junta.
Read more: Justice for Myanmar
Resistance Groups Form a New Alliance
Nineteen armed groups formed the Spring Revolution Alliance to improve coordination and command while pushing for a federal democracy. Players include the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force, Bamar People’s Liberation Army, and Chin Brotherhood, with Khun Bedu of the KNDF serving as the official spokesperson. The alliance represents between 10,000 and 15,000 fighters across Sagaing, Magwe, Bago, Chin, Mon, and Karen areas. The SRA is a military alliance without a political grouping, but it promises support and collaboration with the National Unity Government and says that it recognizes partnerships with established ethnic armed organizations, committing to a democratic system for justice and freedom.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Alliance Details), Myanmar Now (Formation)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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