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Headlines:
Economy Targets Double-Digit Growth in 2026
Trade Turnover Crosses $900 Billion
Infrastructure Megaprojects
Vingroup Pulls Out of Railway Megaproject
FDI Inflows Stay Strong
Credit Growth Hits 19%
Tech Advances with Investments
Real Estate Mixed
Energy Sees Renewables Push and Nuclear Revival
Tourism Sees a Banner Year
Anti-Corruption Drive Ensnares Bigwigs
Legal Reforms Reshape Business
Economy Targets Double-Digit Growth in 2026
The National Assembly approved ambitious socio-economic targets for 2026, setting GDP growth at a minimum of 10% with per capita income reaching $5,400-$5,500. The plan expects total social investment at nearly $189 billion, an 18.7% increase and a figure that would be a third of GDP. Cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are pushing for double-digit GRDP growth. The acceleration will be a shift from 2025’s “warm-up” phase to full acceleration.
Read more: Vietnam News (National Targets), Vietnam Economic News (Hanoi Plans), Fibre2Fashion (Assembly Approval)
Trade Turnover Crosses $900 Billion
Vietnam’s total trade turnover was in excess of $900 billion for the first time in 2025. The General Department of Customs expects the final figure to come in around $920 billion, which would be almost a 17% year-on-year increase. Exports reached $470.59 billion and imports totaled $449.41 billion, delivering a trade surplus of $21.2 billion for the tenth year in a row. The country now sits 21st globally in exports and 20th in imports. The FDI sector’s import-export turnover crossed the $600 billion threshold for the first time - that’s 72% of total trade. China kept its spot as the largest trading partner with $252 billion in bilateral trade, followed by the U.S. at $170 billion.
Read more: Vietnam News (Trade Milestone), OANA News (Export Rankings), Vietnam Net (Post-Pandemic Comeback), Vietnam Net (Wood Exports)
Infrastructure Megaprojects
Construction of the $67 billion North-South high-speed railway is expected to begin by the end of this year (first time saying that about 2026!). The double-track line will run just over 1500 km from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City at speeds of up to 350 km/h, and will have 23 passenger and 5 freight stations. Separately, work started on a $7.7 billion railway that will connect the northern border with China to Hanoi and Hai Phong. That one is expected to be finished by 2030. Ho Chi Minh City approved Component Project 3 of the Bien Hoa-Vung Tau Expressway with more than $274 million in investment. Long Thanh International Airport welcomed its first commercial flights on December 19; full operations are expected by June.
Read more: Vietnam Economic News (High-Speed Rail), ENR (Northern Railway), Vietcetera (Long Thanh Airport)
Vingroup Pulls Out of Railway Megaproject
Vingroup, on Christmas Day, said it would withdraw its proposal for the $67 billion North-South high-speed railway project to focus resources on other national-scale projects. The decision triggered a market rout, and Vingroup shares falling 7% to their daily floor limit and dragging the entire VN-Index down nearly 40 points. Three Vingroup-linked stocks collectively shed more than 21 points from the index. The conglomerate now plans to concentrate on projects including an Olympic-standard stadium in Hanoi, the Ben Thanh-Can Gio metro line, and the Hanoi-Quang Ninh high-speed rail. It is more of a surprise that they were ever contemplating the project than it is that they decided they won’t be able to deliver.
Read more: Business Times Singapore (Market Impact), Trading View (Withdrawal), VnExpress (Other Projects)
FDI Inflows Stay Strong
Foreign direct investment hit $31.52 billion in the first ten months of 2025, up 15.6% year-on-year. Ho Chi Minh City alone was able to bring in $8.37 billion. Singapore came out as the top investor with $2.1 billion, followed by South Korea and Hong Kong. Chinese companies are increasingly looking to Southeast Asia for growth, with a 32% year-on-year increase in exports of intermediate goods to Vietnam by November 2025. Industrial real estate is also expected to keep strong growth driven by foreign investment.
Read more: VIR (HCMC Investment), MSN (Chinese Investment), Vietnam Economic News (Singapore Trade)
Credit Growth Hits 19%
Outstanding credit across the banking system reached $699 billion by December 24, the highest growth rate in many years at 19%. The State Bank directed credit flows mostly toward production, “business activities,” and priority sectors including agriculture (6.15% of the total), manufacturing (12.39%), construction (7.47%), and wholesale/retail trade (22.24%). The government also greatly expanded a credit program for forestry and fishery VND15 trillion to VND185 trillion. The credit-to-GDP ratio now stands at about 146%, the highest of lower-middle-income economies.
Read more: The Investor (Growth Rate), Vietnam News (Sector Breakdown)
Tech Advances with Investments
CT Group announced a $1 billion network of sovereign AI data centers, with Phase 1 launching at Danang High-Tech Park with a capacity of 10-20 MW and an investment of up to $200 million. The project will set Vietnam up as a leading AI center in Southeast Asia; the country’s AI economy could reach $130 billion by 2040. FPT Corporation delivered its first batch of power management integrated circuits to a Japanese electronics company, Vietnam’s first commercial chip entry into Japan’s semiconductor market. The Ministry of Science and Technology set up the National Multi-Project Wafer Coordination Centre to coordinate chip design and manufacture.
Read more: VIR (AI Centers), Technode (Chip Delivery), Vietnam Plus (Wafer Centre)
Real Estate Mixed
Ho Chi Minh City has set aside 64 agricultural land plots of more than 2.7 million square meters for pilot commercial housing projects to meet rising housing demand, with more than a million square meters from rice-growing areas. The real estate market has seen between 537,000-785,000 transactions a year since 2022, with prices rising 10-15% per annum and some segments rising up to 30%. New supply increased by about half when compared to 2024, with 3,297 projects nationwide totaling 5.9 million units. The branded residential sector is seeing strong growth, with MIK Group saying they’ve seen full take up of 10,000 units that it delivered last year.
Read more: Vietnam Economic News (Land Allocation), The Investor (Market Outlook), Vietnam Economic News(Growth Trends)
Energy Sees Renewables Push and Nuclear Revival
Vietnam and France’s AFD signed a €76 million credit facility for the Bac Ai Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant, the first of six loans totaling nearly €480 million for the 1,200MW project in Khanh Hoa province. The government approved a pilot carbon emissions allowance project on December 24 - that’s expected to see a nationwide rollout by 2028. In the first phases, the project will focus on the power generation, steel, and cement sectors. Khanh Hoa Province approved VND6.7 trillion for site clearance and resettlement to support the Ninh Thuan 1 Nuclear Power Plant, which is expected to be up and running sometime between 2030 and 2035 with a capacity of up to 3,000 MW.
Read more: VIR (Hydropower), Reccessary (Carbon Scheme), Vietnam Economic News (Nuclear Power)
Tourism Sees a Banner Year
Vietnam welcomed about 21.5 million international arrivals in 2025, beating targets by more than a third. Domestic tourism saw 135.5 million travelers, and total tourism revenue is expected to come in above $38 billion once the final figures are in. For 2026, the National Authority of Tourism is aiming for 25 million foreign visitors, 150 million domestic tourists, and $45 billion in revenue. U.S. media has labeled Phu Quoc as the “Hawaii of Asia” for its beaches and affordable (not sure how “affordable” related to Hawaii) offerings.
Read more: Travel and Tour World (Record Arrivals), Vietnam Economic News (2026 Targets), VnExpress (Phu Quoc Recognition)
Anti-Corruption Drive Ensnares Bigwigs
The Central Steering Committee for Anti-Corruption says that 23 senior officials were disciplined in 2025, and six of them are facing criminal charges. Authorities opened 3,325 new cases with 8,516 suspects related to corruption, including 585 specifically classified as corruption cases. Asset recovery included more than $52.8 million seized and nearly $934 million recovered in civil enforcement actions. More than 330 Party organizations and 9,600 Party members were sanctioned throughout the year. Local efforts showed improvement with disciplinary actions against 98 top leaders, including 46 facing criminal charges. Several prominent Shark Tank investors are under investigation for fraud, bribery, and tax evasion.
Read more: Vietnam Net (Disciplinary Actions), Vietnam Net (Shark Tank Scandals)
Legal Reforms Reshape Business
The government published Decree No. 337/2025/ND-CP on electronic employment contracts effective as of today, setting up a national Electronic Labor Contract Platform to be up an running by July 1. The Ministry of Finance proposed requiring household businesses to declare all bank accounts used for production to tax authorities, with tax exemptions for annual revenue of VND500 million or less. New personal income tax amendments will raise the limits on monthly personal deductions from VND11 million to VND15.5 million, reducing the number of progressive tax brackets from seven to five. The government also set out new rules on entry, exit, and residence policies for foreigners at the International Financial Center, offering visas and temporary residence cards.
Read more: Vietnam Economic News (Labor Contracts), Vietnam News (Bank Reporting), Vietnam News (Tax Reform)
That’s it for this week!
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