Thailand 20260102
Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
Business stories from Southeast Asia directly to your inbox every week.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
As a reminder, you can adjust which country versions of The Memo you would like to receive by adjusting your settings here.
Headlines:
Border Tensions Ease on Fragile Ceasefire
Landmine Incident Causes Diplomatic Protest
February Election Heats Up With Three-Way Race
Constitutional Referendum on February Ballot
Historian Suggests Rejection of ICJ Ruling
Border Conflict Crushes Tourism Season
Export Growth Revised Up, 2026 Outlook Dims
Fiscal Pressures Mount as Debt Nears Ceiling
Strong Baht Squeezes Both Exports and Tourists
Capital Markets Struggle With Investor Flight
Energy Transition Towards Net-Zero
Digital Competitiveness Slips on AI Gap
Refer three friends and receive a full paid subscription to The Memo for one month absolutely FREE:
Border Tensions Ease on Fragile Ceasefire
A(nother) ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia took effect on December 27. The agreement includes a 72-hour joint monitoring period, the maintenance of current force levels and the setup of oversight with ASEAN observers. Thailand released 18 Cambodian prisoners of war on December 31 as a goodwill gesture after five months of detention. Thai forces say they discovered underground tunnel networks at a Cambodian military base near the disputed border, including ammunition storage and reinforced shelters.
Read more: Thai Examiner (Peace Deal), Nation Thailand (Ceasefire Details), ABS-CBN (POW Release), Thai Examiner(Tunnel Discovery), The Diplomat (Negotiations), CGTN (Trilateral Talks), Bangkok Post (JBC Warning)
Landmine Incident Causes Diplomatic Protest
Thailand formally protested to Cambodia after Sergeant Major Third Class Sujin Jitkreeyan lost a limb to a PMN-2 anti-personnel landmine on December 30 while clearing mines at Khao Satta Som in Sisaket province. The Thai Army says that Cambodia recently planted the mines, saying it is a violation of the Ottawa Convention. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs says it will follow up on the issue through Mine Ban Treaty mechanisms and is demanding an ASEAN-led investigation and Cambodian cooperation in demining efforts.
Read more: OAN (Landmine Protest), Nation Thailand (Drone Denial)
February Election Heats Up With Three-Way Race
Political parties registered one less than 3,200 candidates for the February 8, 2026 general election, including 73 prime ministerial candidates from 34 parties. The biggest names in the race include conservative Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul, the progressive People’s Party’s Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, and the populist Pheu Thai’s Yodchanan Wongsawat. The People’s Party promised that it wouldn’t support Anutin, as it faces challenges with younger voters reluctant to back the Shinawatra family. The Democrat Party nominated three candidates including former PM Abhisit Vejjajiva, who released a 27-point economic platform promising clean governance and lower electricity bills. More than 40% of Bangkok voters say they’re still undecided - final decisions are expected to hinge on nationalist sentiment and emotional engagement more than ideology.
Read more: English News CN (Democrat Candidates), Bangkok Post (Bangkok Voters), Nation Thailand (Power Fight), Thai Enquirer (Registration), WRAL (Party Registration), Nation Thailand (Democrat Policies)
Constitutional Referendum on February Ballot
Voters will decide on replacing the 2017 constitution in a referendum alongside the general election. The Pheu Thai Party is working with civil society groups to promote a “yes” vote and has put forward a motion for parliamentary approval to draft a new constitution. Chaturon Chaisaeng, head of Pheu Thai’s campaign communications, confirmed the party’s commitment to the effort. The party is putting together a campaign committee and says it is willing to cooperate with stakeholders to push for constitutional change.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Historian Suggests Rejection of ICJ Ruling
Historian Thepmontree Limpayom is telling the government to reject the International Court of Justice’s ruling on Preah Vihear temple and reclaim the site from Cambodia, claiming “new evidence” from the 1904 Franco-Siamese Treaty. Thepmontree argues the watershed line determining the border lies on the Thai side and says a diplomatic reservation made to the UN in 1962 asserts rights to reclaim the temple. His proposed actions include using military force, passing a parliamentary resolution to formally notify the UN of non-acceptance, setting up a negotiation team, and publicly rebutting alleged Cambodian misinterpretations of the judgment.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Historian Proposal), Nation Thailand (Anutin Response)
Border Conflict Crushes Tourism Season
The ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia came too late to salvage New Year celebrations on Khao San Road, with businesses reporting a 30% drop in hotel bookings. Occupancy stands at 70-80%, down from near-full capacity that’s been typical in previous years. New Year countdown events are expected to generate only 20-30 million baht in spending, less than half of what was hoped for. A toppled Hindu statue at Chong An Ma Pass on December 22 was cause for a calls for an Indian tourist boycott of Thailand, with India’s Ministry of External Affairs sharing their concern. Indian social media campaigns called on Indian travelers to avoid Thailand.
Read more: Khaosodenglish (Khao San Impact), Thai Examiner (Hindu Statue), Pattaya Mail (Baht Impact)
Export Growth Revised Up, 2026 Outlook Dims
Thai exports rose 7.1% year-on-year in November 2025, led by electronics shipments and surpassing October’s 5.7% growth. KResearch revised its 2025 export growth forecast to 12.0% from 11.0% due to stronger-than-expected shipments in the first 11 months, thanks to delayed US tariff impacts. Full-year import growth was also adjusted upward to 12.2% from 10.3%. For 2026, KResearch forsees a contraction of -1.2% year-on-year, on risks from expanding US tariffs and a further slowdown in global trade. Trade with Free Trade Agreement partners grew 13% through October 2025, coming in at $337.4 billion, with growth from China (28%), India (27%), and ASEAN members (13%).
Read more: Kasikorn Research (Export Growth), Qazinform (FTA Trade), Nation Thailand (Rice Exports)
Fiscal Pressures Mount as Debt Nears Ceiling
The incoming government will have to navigate fiscal challenges worsened by a sluggish growth environment. Moody’s and Fitch Ratings both downgraded the country’s outlook from stable to negative on fiscal pressures. Planned reforms include VAT increases to 8.5% by 2028 and 10% by 2030, with fiscal 2027 tax revenue expected to come in at 3 trillion baht. Public debt is likely to rise from 65.2% of GDP in October to almost 70% (the statutory ceiling) by fiscal 2028.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Fiscal Outlook), Reuters (Economic Growth)
Strong Baht Squeezes Both Exports and Tourists
The baht’s appreciation of about 9% against the dollar this year is causing problems. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office says November 2025 exports were valued at $27.445 billion, growing 7.1% for 17 consecutive months. Chookiat Ophaswongse of the Thai Rice Exporters Association says that continued baht strength threatens agricultural exports. Foreign visitors in Pattaya report that spending has dropping from as much as 400,000 baht to barely 100,000 baht during typical three-month stays.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Rice Impact), Pattaya Mail (Tourism Impact)
Capital Markets Struggle With Investor Flight
The Stock Exchange of Thailand saw the weakest performance in Southeast Asia over 2025, with the index dropping more than 10% in the first 11 months. Average daily trading value decreased to 30-40 billion baht from nearly 100 billion baht, a loss of Thailand’s status as the region’s most liquid equity market. Foreign investors sold more than 100 billion baht worth of Thai equities in 2025, continuing a trend of outflows that are now more than 300 billion baht for the past three years. Thailand’s IPO market is expected to remain weak with local firms opting for overseas listings for what they see as better valuations. IPO fundraising in 2025 is expected at only $348 million, the lowest in Southeast Asia and the weakest year since 2010. In what might be considered a ham-fisted move in light of all the above, the Bank of Thailand ways it’s going to put stricter rules in place on fund inflows of more than $200,000 to improve financial stability and monitor foreign investments (?).
Read more: Bangkok Post (Stock Performance), Tech in Asia (IPO Market), Trading View (Fund Controls)
Energy Transition Towards Net-Zero
Caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul announced in late September 2025 that Thailand will redouble efforts to get to net-zero carbon by 2050, 15 years earlier than previously expected. Egat is looking at small modular reactors and hydrogen fuel cells, with two SMR power plants totaling 600 MW expected by 2037. Natee Sithiprassasana of the Federation of Thai Industries’ Renewable Energy Industry Club wants to see a scaling up direct Power Purchase Agreement policies to meet demands for up to 10 GW of clean energy by 2030. U Power signed a partnership with Whale Logistics for deploying up to 1,000 battery-swapping electric truck tractors, with first delivery of 30 units expected in April.
Read more: Bangkok Post (SMR Technology), Bangkok Post (Renewables Challenges), Automotive World (EV Partnership)
Digital Competitiveness Slips on AI Gap
Thailand dropped to 38th place in the IMD World Digital Competitiveness Ranking 2025, with its technology ranking dropping from 23rd to 29th because of weak private AI investment. About a third of Thai businesses already use some AI, but only 16% are using it to innovate. The Digital Council of Thailand want accelerated STEM promotion to grow a more highly-skilled workforce; it says that currently only 1% of the workforce can be called “highly skilled.” Thailand also sits low in rankings for government cybersecurity (55th) and privacy protection (58th). The Thai Pakdee Party proposed getting rid of 500 and 1,000 baht banknotes to combat corruption (again - ?!).
Read more: Bangkok Post (AI Investment), Thai Examiner (Banknote Plan), CEM Net (Green Procurement)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
How are we doing?
We love hearing from readers, and we are always looking for feedback. How are we doing with the Mekong Memo? Is there anything you'd like to see more of or less of? Which aspects of the newsletter do you enjoy the most?
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— hit reply and help us get better. We'd love to hear from you!
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. Please also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below, which helps us get visibility on the Substack network.
Thank you!