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Headlines:
Economy Roars to 8% Growth in 2025
Record US Trade Surplus
14th National Party Congress Charts a Course
Semiconductor Push Gets Institutional Backing
Digital Economy Laws Change Tech Terrain
Investment Law Streamlines Business Processes
Infrastructure Spending Drives Ambitions
Tourism Smashes Record: 21.2M Arrivals
Shrimp Exports Under Pressure, Ag Exports Boom
Stock Market Eyes 2K
Regional Co-op: CA, CN, EU, DE, FR, RCEP
Manufacturing PMI Holds Above 50
Economy Roars to 8% Growth in 2025
Vietnam’s economy saw a tremendous 8% growth rate through 2025, the fastest pace since 2011, thanks to a solid export performance and healthy domestic consumption. Q4 posting 8.46%, the strongest fourth quarter since 2007. Exports and imports both rose by almost a fifth to $475 billion vs $455 billion, leaving a $20 billion trade surplus. Foreign direct investment disbursement totaled $27.6 billion, up 9% (the highest in five years). Industrial production was up 9.2%, and automobile output soared 39%. The government wants to see at least 10% growth for 2026-2030, as it works to creating space for the nation to reach middle-income status by 2030.
Read more: Vietnam News (Poverty Reduction), Trading View (FDI Growth), ABC News (Despite Tariffs), VN Economy (ADB Assessment), OAN (FDI Overview), Trading View (Industrial Growth), The Investor (Thai Nguyen), VIR (HCMC Parks)
Record US Trade Surplus
Vietnam posted a record $134 billion trade surplus with the US (the largest export market) in 2025, up from 2024’s $119.5 billion, even as Washington slapped a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods in August. The government is negotiating a new trade deal to reduce the friction. Imports from China hit a record $186 billion, a huge number that has US officials claiming that China is using Vietnam for transshipment purposes.
Read more: Reuters (Record Surplus), VIR (Electronics Boom), Trading View (December Gap)
14th National Party Congress Charts a Course
The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party will be run between January 19 and 25, where policymakers will make a re-evaluation of the status quo after reviewing 40 years of Doi Moi reforms. Secretary To Lam wants “breakthrough action and tangible results” this year, as he tries to change the nature of governance from one of “policy issuance” to “outcome-based leadership.” The Congress is expected to choose the 200-member Central Committee and set development goals for the country through to the year 2030.
Read more: VnExpress (Congress Prep), Vietnam Net (Action Push), VN Economy (Party Chief), OAN (Chinese Scholar)
Semiconductor Push Gets Institutional Backing
The government set up the Vietnam National Multi-Project Wafer Coordination Center on December 24 to oversee the industry, including chip prototyping. The sector has 7,000 design engineers, but apparently could do with as many as 50,000 by 2030 to meet targets. The market is worth more than $10 billion today and is on track to hit $16.5 billion by the end of this decade. Players, including Intel, Amkor, and Samsung, are all growing operations as they shift the nature of semiconductor work in Vietnam from assembly to design and packaging (“putting chips together,” not “putting chips in boxes”).
Read more: The Investor (Value Chain), Vietnam Briefing (National Center), VIR (Meiko Investment)
Digital Economy Laws Change Tech Terrain
The Personal Data Protection Law and Digital Technology Industry Law took effect on January 1, creating rules for AI, data protection, and digital assets. Decree 356 requires consent documentation and cross-border data transfer procedures. The AI Law, which will come into force in March, creates regulatory sandboxes and sets aside development money as it tires to keep national sovereignty over language models. There was a bit of controversy as Zalo, a popular messaging platform, gave users a 45-day ultimatum to accept new terms or lose access completely, and that’s raised some eyebrows about coercion under the new rules. An E-commerce Law (effective July 1) requires livestream monitoring and seller verification through the VNeID system. The digital economy was responsible for just a bit more than 14% of GDP last year ($72 billion); e-commerce alone made up half of that.
Read more: MLex (Law Blitz), Vietnam Net (Cybercrime), PPC Land (Decree Details), Vietnam Net (Zalo Controversy)
Investment Law Streamlines Business Processes
The National Assembly passed the Law on Investment 2025 on December 11, taking effect March 1, 2026, removing 38 conditional business lines and simplifying many, previously onerous, procedures. Foreign investors are now able to set up “economic organizations” before getting Investment Registration Certificates. The number of projects that will need “In-principle Approval” has been reduced, and the number of projects that can make use of special investment procedures has been increased. Corporate tax rates for priority sectors has been dropped to 10% for 15 years, with full land lease exemptions and tax waivers now available for skilled workers. Land auction rules have been tightened - they will now required deposits of from 10 to 50% of starting prices (up from 5-20%), in an attempt to tamp down on speculation.
Read more: The Investor (Investment Law), Vietnam News (Land Auctions), The Investor (Speculation Crackdown)
Infrastructure Spending Drives Ambitions
The PM is trying to get cash out the door more quickly and wants faster disbursement of public investment, especially for mega-projects like the North-South high-speed railway and Lao Cai-Hanoi-Hai Phong railway. VIDIFI has proposed expanding the Hanoi-Hai Phong Expressway from six to (as many as) ten(!) lanes. They say that usage is already more than 90% of the designed capacity. Da Nang is investing $172 million to upgrade National Highway 14D between now and 2027. Long Thanh International Airport construction is still ongoing with a reported 15,000 workers beavering away for a 2026 opening. The new airport was designed to handle 25 million passengers annually.
Read more: VN Economy (Resource Mobilization), VN Economy (Expressway Expansion), VN Economy (Railway Push), Travel and Tour World (Airport Progress)
Tourism Smashes Record: 21.2M Arrivals
International arrivals totaled 21.2 million in 2025, up a fifth from 2024 and finally beating pre-pandemic numbers. Tourism revenue was more than a quadrillion dong (more simply for most of our readers, that’s $38 billion, but we wanted to use the word “quadrillion” this week), and credit for the numbers is being given to (among other things) visa reforms. Mainland China was top of the charts with 5.2 million visitors, followed by South Korea (4.3M) and Taiwan (1.23M). The US sent 848,000 arrivals, and Japan provided 814,000. The government has set a target of 25 million foreign arrivals and a ~10% rise in tourism revenue for FY2026.
Read more: VnExpress (Record Arrivals), Qazinform (Breakthrough Growth), Travel and Tour World (Global Attention)
Shrimp Exports Under Pressure, Ag Exports Boom
The shrimp industry is navigating a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 35.29% and combined tax rates approaching 60% on frozen shrimp exports to the United States. Non-tariff barriers are tightening with an increased rate of quality inspections and traceability requirements, putting pressure on processors and farmers who are already suffering thin margins. Total seafood exports were in excess of $11.3 billion in 2025, and shrimp made up $4.65 billion of that. Fruit and vegetable exports should hit $10 billion in 2026, featuring durian, coconut, bananas, and rice.
Read more: Vietnam News (Shrimp Challenges), VIR (Seafood Total), Vietnam Net (Major Buyers), Vietnam News (Fruit Target), Vietnam Net (Durian Dominance), VN Economy (Rice Exports)
Stock Market Eyes 2K
The VN-Index rose again to a record 1,861.58 points yesterday as state-owned stocks rallied. The index closed out 2025 at 1,784.49, up nearly 41% for the year. Foreign investors turned net buyers with VND502 billion in buying after unloading VND134.8 trillion worth of shares in 2025. The index is likely to breach 2000 points this year, with some forecasts as high as 2,099 based on 19% corporate profit growth.
Read more: Vietnam News (Index Surge), The Investor (State Stocks), VIR (2026 Start), Vietnam News (2026 Forecast)
Regional Co-op: CA, CN, EU, DE, FR, RCEP
The government is negotiating with Canada to drive new avenues of growth, including science and technology cooperation, climate change management, and infrastructure. Bilateral trade between the two countries last year was more than $6.35 billion by September. China has promised half a million dollars in flood recovery aid as two-way trade exceeded $200 billion in early 2025. More than 6,000 Chinese projects worth nearly $35 billion are active. The EU signed a €50 million agreement to improve vocational education, including €40 million from the EU, €10 million from Germany, and €0.5 million from France. The RCEP deal continues to be very supportive of increased trade within the bloc.
Read more: OAN (Canada Relations), OAN (China Ties), VN Economy (EU Education), VIR (RCEP Growth), RCEP (FTA)
Manufacturing PMI Holds Above 50
The manufacturing PMI stood at 53 in December, down from November’s 53.8 but remaining in “expansion” territory for the 11th consecutive month. Output, new orders, and employment all rose. Input cost inflation reached a three-and-a-half-year high. Nearly half of the companies surveyed expect output to increase in 2026 on the back of improved demand and expanded production capacity.
Read more: Fibre2Fashion (PMI Data), Trading View (Output Growth), VIR (Market Forecast)
That’s it for this week!
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