Southeast Asian business news delivered to your inbox every weekday with the Mekong Memo.
The Memo is published each weekday for the countries of your choice. Paid subscriptions receive full editions while free subscribers usually only get top headlines and the first few stories. We can’t do this without your support, so please consider a paid subscription.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
If you appreciate the work that goes into preparing The Memo (and the time it saves you!), please consider a paid subscription to support our efforts. Thank you.
Headlines:
Sham Election Gets Boycotts, Attacks
ASEAN Gets Test Over Election Response
ICJ Opens Rohingya Genocide Trial
NUG Promises to Block Myitsone Dam Revival
Arakan Army Escalates Rakhine Offensive
Meta Trashes Accounts Linked to Military Telecom
Journos in Exile Under Pressure
Trump Admin Signals Policy Shift
Karen Splinter Group Declares Independence
Copper Mines Fuel Junta Machine
China’s Syndicate Crack Down
China Jawbones Duty-Free Exports
Sham Election Gets Boycotts, Attacks
The junta wrapped up the second phase of its three-part general election on January 11, with the final round planned for January 25. The military-proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party claimed nearly 90% of lower house seats in phase one and has now won Aung San Suu Kyi’s former Kawhmu constituency. Voter turnout dropped to about 50%, down from the 70% that was reported in 2020, with residents in Yangon saying they voted only to try and sidestep regime retaliation. Resistance forces set drone strikes and ambushes on polling stations, killing election officials in both Bago and Magway. UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews said the process was a “theatrical performance” designed to entrench military rule. More than 330 people are facing prosecution under laws criminalizing poll criticism with up to 10 years in prison.
Read more: The Independent (Voter Fear), France24 (Phase Two), The Irrawaddy (Irregularities), AP News (Security Attacks)
ASEAN Gets Test Over Election Response
ASEAN is walking a tightrope as member states split on how to handle the election. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim says the bloc will avoid “premature legitimization” while trying to find an inclusive pathway forward, but Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam have already re-engaged by way of trade, military cooperation, or election delegations. The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar is asking ASEAN to condemn the polls and put support behind the National Unity Government and ethnic organizations. Accepting the election as progress could hollow out ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus and set a precedent for other regional baddies to skip democratic norms by way of managed elections. The Philippines takes the ASEAN chair this year is under immediate pressure to define the bloc’s stance.
Read more: CNA (ASEAN Divisions), Lowy Institute (Credibility Test), SAC-M (Rejection Call)
ICJ Opens Rohingya Genocide Trial
The International Court of Justice opened for three weeks of hearings yesterday to decide if Myanmar committed genocide against the Rohingya during its 2017 crackdown. Gambia’s Justice Minister Dawda Jallow told judges the Rohingya were “targeted for destruction” by way of mass killings, gang rape, and village burning that forced 730,000 people to flee to Bangladesh. For the first time, Rohingya victims will testify before an international court in closed sessions. Myanmar’s military, naturally, denies the allegations, saying their work was the result of a legitimate counter-terrorism campaign. The National Unity Government has formally accepted ICJ jurisdiction and withdrawn all preliminary objections that had been filed by the previous administration. The case is expected to set a precedent both for how genocide is defined and proven, possibly affecting the way that South Africa’s case against Israel over Gaza plays out.
Read more: Al Jazeera (Trial Opens), The Guardian (Survivor Testimony), ABC News (Legal Stakes)
NUG Promises to Block Myitsone Dam Revival
The National Unity Government says that any international agreements signed by the junta to restart the Myitsone Dam are legally void. NUG spokesperson U Nay Phone Latt warned investors they will be solely responsibility for financial losses that result from unauthorized contracts. The NUG claims the dam would block silt flow, destroy agricultural viability in the Ayeyarwady Delta, and potentially result in catastrophic risks because of its location near the Sagaing Fault. The opposition government says the revival is a desperate attempt by the junta to trade national interests for Chinese support. The military threatened to prosecute anyone opposing “state-authorized” projects, which the NUG says is just a shield for Chinese investments.
Read more: Mizzima
Arakan Army Escalates Rakhine Offensive
The Arakan Army has shifted from a defensive to an offensive posture since the election, taking aim at military installations around Kyaukphyu and the state capital of Sittwe. Kyaukphyu is host to several Chinese investment projects and the Danyawaddy Naval Headquarters, making it a coveted prize. The AA has reportedly killed Colonel Han Lin Aung, chief of Military Operations Command No. 10, and 12 other soldiers in an ambush on the Rakhine-Bago border. Fighting has, so far, displaced more than 50,000 residents in Kyaukphyu. Inside Sittwe, junta troops and the co-opted Arakan Liberation Party are running house searches and making arrests. Veteran politician U Pe Than claims the election results offer no representation for Rakhine people, and that the conflict will need to be resolved by force rather than a “rubber-stamp” legislature.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Offensive), The Irrawaddy (Commander Killed)
Meta Trashes Accounts Linked to Military Telecom
Facebook parent company Meta has removed more than a thousand pages, groups, and accounts connected to military-controlled telecom company Mytel after receiving reports of policy violations. Justice For Myanmar (JFM) says that Mytel was using new accounts and reseller pages to get around Meta’s 2021 ban on Myanmar military-owned businesses. Mytel is a joint venture between the Myanmar Economic Corporation, Vietnam’s Viettel Global, and a local holding company. JFM asserts that Mytel participates and supports military surveillance and censorship even as it generating a huge amount of revenue - the military’s shareholding could result in an income of as much as $720 million over the next decade. JFM next wants Google and Apple to ban Mytel apps from their stores.
Read more: Mizzima
Journos in Exile Under Pressure
Burmese exile media outlets are struggling after the U.S. State Department pulled funding in early 2025, forcing a change towards more “clickbaity” content models so that they can get by on social media revenue. Media organizations like People’s Spring and Dawei Watch operate from “shadow” offices in Chiang Mai, Thailand, using pseudonyms and spycraft to protect in-country reporters, but Thailand’s rumored plan to cancel student visas is another threat to the viability of this exile hub.
Read more: Capital and Main
Trump Admin Signals Policy Shift
The Trump administration is recalibrating U.S.-Myanmar relations from moral-based sanctions toward “strategic engagement,” saying its necessary because of Myanmar’s rare earth reserves and the need to counterbalance Chinese influence. US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem says the election is evidence of progress and has terminated Temporary Protected Status for Myanmar citizens, saying that its safe for nationals to go back, apparently not having heard news of the civil war. The Treasury Department had previously (last July) lifted sanctions on several junta cronies. Economist Dave Brat says the previous policy of “absence” created a power vacuum that’s now been filled by China.
Read more: Washington Times (Engagement Push), Foreign Policy (Critique), Keys News (TPS Termination)
Karen Splinter Group Declares Independence
General Saw Nerdah Mya, leader of the Kawthoolei Army, unilaterally proclaimed the “Republic of Kawthoolei” on January 5, alongside plans to write a constitution and form an independent government. This is a change from the resistance’s previously shared goal of a federal democratic union. The Karen National Union and its armed wing came out strongly against the declaration, saying the KTLA was little more than a “splinter group” that was undermining Karen unity. The fragmentation might encourage other ethnic armed groups to abandon the federal vision, possibly making it more difficult to find peace.
Read more: AsiaNews
Copper Mines Fuel Junta Machine
Chinese state-owned subsidiaries Wanbao Mining and Myanmar Yang Tse Copper continue operating the Letpadaung copper mines in Sagaing Region in congress with the military-owned Myanma Economic Holdings. Myanmar’s copper exports to China were $216 million in 2024, providing much-needed foreign currency for the junta’s weapons production. The mines are fully operational, outputting 565 tonnes daily and employing more than 5,500 workers. Bi-monthly convoys force thousands of villagers from 15 villages to get out of the way to avoid junta “clearing” operations. The NUG issued a statement in January 2024 promising to safeguard Chinese investments in an “adjusting to reality” approach that some describe as transactional diplomacy with Beijing.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
China’s Syndicate Crack Down
Chinese authorities reportedly brought down telecom fraud networks operated by the “four families” in Kokang, Myanmar, sentencing 11 members of the Ming family and five Bai family members to death last year for fraud, murder, and related crimes. Since the crackdown began in 2023, China has brought home more than 57,000 fraud suspects and freed about 7,000 from the scam centers. Prosecutors shared stories of systemic abuse including forced prostitution, torture, and punitive amputations. The Southeast Asian scam industry is worth an estimated $50-70 billion annually, with losses to U.S. victims reportedly totaling $10 billion in 2025. Law enforcement agencies from six countries agreed in November 2025 to intensify joint operations, though experts report hundreds of compounds continue operating in Cambodia with alleged government support.
Read more: NDTV (Crackdown), The Irrawaddy (Extraditions)
China Jawbones Duty-Free Exports
Myanmar’s Union Minister for Commerce and Chinese Ambassador Ma Jia sat down on January 5th to talk about expanding the list of Myanmar export items that have been given duty-free status. Both of them seemed willing to re-open border gates to ease trade and support residents living along their shared border. Officials also discussed technical cooperation involving machinery and tech transfers to help ensure Myanmar’s exports meet Chinese quality standards.
Read more: Asian News Network
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— reply and tell us what you think.
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. You can also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below (or sometimes above, depending on the platform), which helps us get visibility on Substack.
The Karen splinter group declaring independence is a big deal for Myanmar's already fragmented resistance. Federalism was supposed to be the unifying principle that could bring together ethnic groups with the NUG, but when one faction breaks off like this it undermines the whole project. I've been following Myanmar politics for a few yers now and the pattern is always the same - internal disputes within ethnic armed organizations end up weakening the broader movement against the junta. The KNU calling them a splinter group that undermines unity is exactl right.