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Headlines:
Growth Dreams Meet Stubborn Realities
State-Owned Co’s Eye Fortune 500
Oil Jackpot Could Flip the Production Script
VN-Index Smashes Through 1,900
US Trade Surplus Triggers Diplomatic Reshuffle
Property Crackdown Takes Aim at Speculation
Infra Blitz Rolls On: Roads, Airports
Energy Mix Gets a Relook
FDI Flows Both Ways
Tech Gets Its Legal Toolkit
Digital ID Plan Flirts with Big Brother Territory
VinFast Leaves Rivals in the Dust
Growth Dreams Meet Stubborn Realities
The 14th National Party Congress (January 19-25) will set the path to the country’s “upper-middle income” badge by 2030 and, hopefully, “developed nation,” by 2045. Party General Secretary To Lam says this year’s going to be critical, but knows that double-digit GDP growth is a tall order given structural realities. The government met or beat 22 of 26 socio-economic targets in the 2021-2025 period, and GDP grew more than 8.% last year. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is pushing for restructuring driven by technology and innovation, with a focus on breaking down institutional barriers.
Read more: EurasiaReview (Congress Goals), Vietnam News (Growth Challenges), VN Economy (Performance Review), Hanoi Times (Strategic Shift)
State-Owned Co’s Eye Fortune 500
Resolution 79, signed January 6, is an ambitious plan for state-owned enterprises to get 50 firms into the list of Southeast Asia’s largest by 2030, with 1-3 cracking the global top 500. By 2045, if all goes to plan, five should rank in the Fortune 500 list of companies. Three state-owned banks also want to get into Asia’s top 100 by assets.
Read more: The Investor (Targets), The Investor (Beneficiaries), Global Times (2045 Vision)
Oil Jackpot Could Flip the Production Script
In what could be ASEAN’s largest discovery since the early 2000s, Murphy Oil reported that its Hai Su Vang appraisal well in the Cuu Long Basin has recoverable resources in excess of 430 million barrels of oil equivalent. The HSV-2X well found 429 feet of net oil pay and tested at 6,000 barrels per day of 37° API crude. Murphy (40% operator), PetroVietnam (35%), and SK Earthon (25%) plan to drill two more wells this year to look at additional zones. The find could reverse a production slide that went from 365,000 bpd in 2005 to below 120,000 bpd and that has made VN a net importer since 2017.
Read more: Gulf News
VN-Index Smashes Through 1,900
The VN-Index broke 1,900 points for the first time this week on strong performances from oil and gas, state banks, and Vingroup stocks. Local investors are driving the push as foreign flows have been weak, but there are some indications that foreign investors might be regaining their appetite. The expected FTSE Russell upgrade to secondary emerging market status (effective September 21) is expected to bring $2-6 billion in foreign cash. It won’t be a surprise if the Index breaches the 2k mark this calendar year.
Read more: Vietnam News (Record High), Vietnam Insiders (Local Investors), The Investor (Foreign Reversal), The Investor (2026 Outlook)
US Trade Surplus Triggers Diplomatic Reshuffle
The Trump administration is swapping out the ambassador as Vientam’s trade surplus with the US reached nearly $134 billion in 2025, beating China’s figure for the first time. Jennifer Wicks McNamara has been appointed to succeed Marc Knapper, who will officially finish his tenure on Sunday. McNamara said her priorities were on equitable access for US goods and US investment. Total trade turnover last year was about $930 billion last year, an 18% increase over the year prior.
Read more: SCMP
Property Crackdown Takes Aim at Speculation
PM Pham Minh Chinh told the finance ministry to create tax policies to discourage speculation after apartment prices rose 20-30% and land plot costs increased 20-25% last year. Average property prices in major cities now sit at 100 million dong ($3,804) a square meter. The State Bank has tightened credit controls on loans to “risky” sectors, capping first-quarter credit growth at 25% of what’s been allocated for the full-year. Real estate shares fell 2.6% after the announcement. The government also issued Decree 357/2025/ND-CP to create a property transaction information system using QR codes for verification. Nearly 3,000 stalled projects totaling $100 billion remain in limbo.
Read more: Reuters (Tax Policies), Vietnam Net (Stalled Projects), Evrimagaci (Transparency Reform), The Investor(Credit Controls)
Infra Blitz Rolls On: Roads, Airports
The country was home to 3,345 km of expressway tarmac as of the end of 2025, with the North-South Expressway from Cao Bang to Ca Mau now finished. Ho Chi Minh City is breaking ground this week on projects worth nearly 240 trillion VND (more than $9 billion), including the Rach Chiec National Sports Complex (145.6 trillion VND), Metro Line No. 2 (57 trillion VND), Can Gio Bridge (13.2 trillion VND), and Phu My 2 Bridge (23.2 trillion VND). Long Thanh International Airport is expanding with a third runway and second terminal, with commercial operations beginning in June. Buon Ma Thuot Airport will increase its capacity to 5 million passengers by 2030 and then 7 million by 2050.
Read more: Vietnam News (Expressways), VN Economy (HCMC Projects), VnExpress (Long Thanh), Vietnam Net(Aviation Growth)
Energy Mix Gets a Relook
The first LNG power complex fired up commercial operations on January 5, with Nhon Trach 3 and 4 plants ($1.4 billion investment) providing 1,624 MW capacity and more than 9 billion kWh annually. PV Gas gave Shell a contract for 400,000 tons of LNG annually from 2027 to 2031 at Thi Vai terminal. Demand for LNG is expected to grow sharply from half a million tons last year to 17 million tons by 2050; 65% of that will go to areas in the south. National electricity demand is expected to more than triple from about 330 TWh today to 1,100 TWh by 2050.
Read more: VN Economy (LNG Complex), The Investor (Shell Contract), Oklahoma State (Demand Projections), Energies Media (Nuclear Plans), CleanTechnica (Wind Power)
FDI Flows Both Ways
Foreign investment in 2025 totalled $38.4 billion in newly registered capital. Singapore led by writing checks worth $4.84 billion, followed by China and Hong Kong. Outbound investment grew 88.7% to $1.36 billion, with $1 billion from 173 newly licensed overseas projects (up 66%). The energy sector was the recipient of more than half a billion of that spend ($507 million, and 37% of total outbound investment), mostly for electricity and gas production. Laos bagged almost $774 million (57% of total outbound investment).
Read more: VIR (Investment Flows), Mingtiandi (BW Industrial), VN Economy (Gia Lai)
Tech Gets Its Legal Toolkit
The revised Law on High Technology, effective July 1, creates new laws for the technology industry and will provide new incentives for investment, tax, and HR. The law legalizes the concept of “strategic technologies” and offers mechanisms that are more tolerant of risk in innovation, encouraging R&D. The Ministry of Science and Technology set up the National Center for Supporting Semiconductor Chip Trial Production, to fill a prototyping phase infrastructure gap. Vietnam is host to more than 170 foreign semiconductor projects. Google plans to develop and manufacture high-end smartphones entirely in-country this year. OCI Holdings will produce non-prohibited foreign entity (PFE) wafers soon at a 2.7 GW facility. Non-PFE status allows the solar wafers to bypass US import restrictions that are slapped on PV from China.
Read more: Vietnam News (High Tech Law), Vietnam Net (Chip Center), Gulf News (Google Phones), PV Magazine (OCI Wafers)
Digital ID Plan Flirts with Big Brother Territory
The Ministry of Public Security is floating a citizen scoring system within the VNeID digital identity platform. Citizens would start with 100 points and earn more through digital activities, being classified into three tiers based on points. The MPS insists the system is incentive-based rather than punitive, and is keen to contrast it with China’s social credit system, but… really? The proposal also includes the issuance of state email addresses to citizens for official communication to “reduce fraud.” Separately, the mobile money transaction limit has been raised tenfold to 100 million VND ($3,850) monthly. Vietnam is home to nearly 11 million registered mobile money accounts, most of the users in remote or rural locations.
Read more: Herald Malaysia (Citizen Scoring), Biometric Update (Privacy Concerns), Vietnam News (Mobile Money), Regulation Asia (Decree Details)
VinFast Leaves Rivals in the Dust
VinFast sold 175,099 vehicles in 2025, bagging almost a third of the market and beating the combined sales of Toyota, Hyundai, and Ford. In December, VinFast delivered 27,649 vehicles - that’s the same as Kia’s annual sales. The Limo Green model that was introduced in August sold 27,127 units. VinFast is the only top-four brand that increased market share in 2025 - competitors like Hyundai lost ground. The country is now the fastest-growing electric vehicle market in ASEAN, with a 62% year-on-year increase in electric vehicle sales. The government also hopes to transition more than 70 million riders from petrol motorbikes to electric bikes.
Read more: Vietnam Insiders (VinFast), VIR (EV Growth), BBC (E-bike Transition)
That’s it for this week!
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