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Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
February 8 Election Heats Up
Border Standoff Simmers Despite Ceasefire
Deadly Crane Collapses Force Safety Reckoning
Brace for the Slowest Growth in Decades
From Cannabis Champion to “War on Weed”
Crackdown on Gray Money, Lifeline for Debtors
Data Center Gold Rush Continues
Tourist Arrivals See First Drop Since Pandemic
Bonds Overtake Equities, RE Investments Rebound
US Stops Immigrant Visa Processing for Thais
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February 8 Election Heats Up
The upcoming general election is quickly becoming the talk of the town as parties pitch competing visions of Thailand’s future. The People’s Party is gunning for more than half of House seats, focusing on reforms and scam networks rather than personality politics. Pheu Thai is putting forward a “Thais Without Poverty” policy, promising annual cash top-ups of up to 36,000 baht for low-income earners to bring 3.4 million people above the poverty line, while also talking about more high-value tourism plays like hosting Formula 1 and legalizing casinos. Populist promises seem to be less front-and-center compared to past campaigns, with parties instead sharing ideas of improved productivity and debt restructuring. The Election Commission has partnered with TikTok to combat misinformation, because, natch, nothing says electoral integrity quite like a dance video app.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Tourism Policy), Bangkok Post (Pheu Thai Welfare), Khaosodenglish (TikTok Partnership), Bangkok Post (Campaign Trends), South China Morning Post (Cash Pledges)
Border Standoff Simmers Despite Ceasefire
Border unease with Cambodia continues, despite a December 27 ceasefire agreement. Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn says that military forces are occupying civilian areas along the border, sealing off sites with barbed wire and shipping containers that prevent up to 4,000 families from returning home. The Thais deny the claim(s), saying their troop presence is in alignment with the peace agreement. Thailand Defence Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit expects to keep forces active along the border for at least one year, supported by electronic fencing, CCTV, and new permanent physical barriers. The Cambodians are asking for a Joint Boundary Commission meeting, but any enthusiasm there is likely to remain tepid until a new Thai government is formed after the election.
Read more: Stratnewsglobal (Occupation Claims), Bangkok Post (Military Deployment), Nation Thailand (Response), The Thaiger (Travel Impact)
Deadly Crane Collapses Force Safety Reckoning
Two crane collapses in two days killed at least 34 people and forced Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to cancel all contracts with local construction giant Italian-Thai Development Plc. The first disaster on January 14 saw a construction crane fall onto a passenger train in Nakhon Ratchasima province, and a second collapse the next day (yesterday) on (accursed?) Rama II Road in Bangkok killed two more. Both cranes were operated by Italian-Thai Development, which has been involved in a spate of fatal construction accidents over the past 10 months, including a 30-story building that came down during the March 25th earthquake, killing 89 people. International media did not hold back in slamming Thailand’s construction safety record.
Read more: NDTV (Train Derailment), Bangkok Post (Contract Termination), Khaosodenglish (Safety Standards), CNN (Investigation)
Brace for the Slowest Growth in Decades
The economy is heading for its slowest growth in three decades, with forecasts of just ~1.5% expansion this year. Household debt is running at about 90% of GDP, holding back consumer spending and forcing many to juggle multiple jobs just so they can get by. Political parties are talking big, trying to convince voters that they have the reform agenda that will fix the structural malaise. The People’s Party thinks it can stem fiscal leaks by way of AI and a reduction in corruption, and Pheu Thai wants a national credit guarantee agency for SME lending, for example. A survey by the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking found that nearly every single business sees corruption as a critical threat to the economy.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Reform Proposals), Bangkok Post (Corruption Survey), Channel News Asia (Reform or Irrelevance), Investing.com (GDP Forecast)
From Cannabis Champion to “War on Weed”
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is reversing his earlier support for cannabis legalization, and now wants tighter rules that will limit sales to medical facilities and ban sales to tourists. About four of every 10 cannabis shops already closed in 2025 because of new rules that demand doctor prescriptions to buy the weed. Anutin, who was previously the champion of legalization as Health Minister in 2022, is now declaring a “war on cannabis,” with claims that recreational use was never intended. Ham, meet fist. The crackdown is thrashing businesses that invested in the sector after legalization, with many now facing ruin.
Read more: Chosun
Crackdown on Gray Money, Lifeline for Debtors
The government introduced a campaign on January 13 to combat “gray money,” improving oversight of gold and digital asset trading to close money-laundering loopholes. Prime Minister Anutin is bringing physical gold and crypto markets under a unified legal framework, and says he has plans for a national data hub for real-time monitoring of suspicious activities. On the debt front, the “Clear Debt, Move Forward” scheme that was launched on January 5 has drawn more than 100,000 applicants in its first week. The program wants to support 1.2 million “retail non-performing” borrowers who hold loans of less than 100,000 baht to clear their debts by paying just 50% of principal and getting accrued interest waived.
Read more: Trading View (Gray Money Campaign), Bangkok Post (Debt Relief)
Data Center Gold Rush Continues
The Board of Investment has approved seven data center projects worth more than $2.7 billion. Projects include three facilities for True Internet Data Centre, two sites from a Gulf-Singtel-AIS joint venture, and investments from Singapore-based Freyr Technology. In 2025, 36 data center projects worth $23.2 billion were submitted for investment promotion, mostly in the provinces of Rayong, Chonburi, and Samut Prakan. New rules require at least 50% local staff in management and specialist roles within three years.
Read more: Tech in Asia
Tourist Arrivals See First Drop Since Pandemic
International tourist arrivals fell 7.2% last year to just under 33 million visitors, the first drop since before the pandemic. The downturn is being blamed on security incidents, natural disasters, and the Cambodia tensions, especially after the January 2025 abduction of Chinese actor Wang Xing which hammered Chinese arrival numbers. Malaysia is still the number one supplier of tourists, sending 4.52 million arrivals, followed by China at 4.47 million. The Tourism Authority has a target of 36.7 million foreign tourists for this year as it expects a recovery in Chinese arrivals to 6.7 million.
Read more: ITIJ (Tourism Decline), Bangkok Post (Political Solutions)
Bonds Overtake Equities, RE Investments Rebound
The bond market is now worth almost 18 trillion baht, a number that is, for the first time, higher than the value of the equities market. The total financial market is estimated to be 51.8 trillion baht, which would be 279% of GDP. Bank loans are the biggest piece of the pie at 18 trillion baht (34.8%), followed by bonds at 17.9 trillion baht (34.5%), and equities at 15.9 trillion baht (30.7%). The bond market’s growth has come from a base of less than 10 trillion baht in the late 1990s. Real estate capital market transactions saw their highest volume since the pandemic, with about 10 billion baht of deal flow over ~25 deals in the first 10 months of 2025. The hotel sector was the biggest recipient.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Bond Market), Bangkok Post (Real Estate)
US Stops Immigrant Visa Processing for Thais
The United States has put a pause on immigrant visa processing for 75 countries including Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand, effective January 21. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow met with US Chargé d’Affaires Elizabeth Konick yesterday to try and wrap his head around the decision. There are more than 320,000 Thai nationals currently living in the United States.
Read more: The Diplomat (Visa Freeze), Nation Thailand (US Clarification)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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