Southeast Asian business news delivered to your inbox every weekday with the Mekong Memo.
The Memo is published each weekday for the countries of your choice. Paid subscriptions receive full editions while free subscribers usually only get top headlines and the first few stories. We can’t do this without your support, so please consider a paid subscription.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
If you appreciate the work that goes into preparing The Memo (and the time it saves you!), please consider a paid subscription to support our efforts. Thank you.
Headlines:
World Court Opens Genocide Case
Twenty Years and Counting for Suu Kyi
Junta’s Ballot Box Theater Continues
Military Claims Drug Bust in Rebel Territory
Resistance Forces Level Up
Scorched Earth, Scorched Policy
Women and the Unwell Paying the Steepest Price
Kyat Craters as Gold Soars
Rare Earths Fuel the Fire
Displacement by the Numbers
World Court Opens Genocide Case
At least 750,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh in 2017, and now the International Court of Justice is hearing the first full genocide case in more than a decade. Myanmar swears that its military offensive was counter-terrorism, not genocide, arguing that Gambia has not met its burden of proof to bring such serious charges. Rohingya victims will testify in closed sessions starting next week - a first for any international court proceeding on this issue. A ruling isn’t expected until late next year, and the court has no real enforcement mechanism, which limits the practical impact of whatever it decides.
Read more: Inter Press Service (Refugee Details), UCA News (Survivor Testimony), UN News (Hate Speech Evidence)
Twenty Years and Counting for Suu Kyi
Aung San Suu Kyi has now spent 20 years either imprisoned or under house arrest, with her current detention beginning after the February 2021 coup. Her son says her health is still getting worse as she deals with a heart condition while in isolation. Her party, the National League for Democracy, won roughly four-fifths of seats up for grabs in November 2020 voting - results the military simply chose not to honor. More than 20,000 political prisoners are still in detention, according to the National Unity Government.
Read more: The Diplomat (Sanctions Context), The Independent (Health Concerns), Independent (Detention Milestone)
Junta’s Ballot Box Theater Continues
The military-backed USDP has claimed 182 seats over two rounds of voting in December and January, with the final phase scheduled for January 25. Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is expected to be set for the presidency through the military’s guaranteed 25% parliamentary bloc—no elected seat required under the 2008 constitution, which is convenient (for him). Voting happened only in military-controlled areas, excluding conflict zones where millions have been displaced. New laws threaten up to 10 years in prison for criticizing the process, and independent observers have largely been shut out of the process.
Read more: ANFREL (Integrity Assessment), Observer Research Foundation (Legitimacy Critique), Irrawaddy (Voter Intimidation), SCMP (Regional Risks), Mizzima (Activist Critique), Straits Times (ASEAN Non-Certification)
Military Claims Drug Bust in Rebel Territory
The junta claims it seized the largest haul of drugs in the country’s history after raids on three facilities in Shan State on January 10 and 11. The UN says Myanmar is the world’s largest methamphetamine producer. The military says authorities have seized drugs valued at more than $2.8 billion and arrested nearly 44,000 people over the past five years. The facilities that were raided this time are situated in Mongyai township, which is about 125 miles northeast of Mandalay and in rebel-controlled territory, so it isn’t clear exactly how the military managed to run the raids.
Read more: AP News (Civil Conflict Context), The Spec (UN Classification)
Resistance Forces Level Up
Scattered guerrilla fights are now becoming coordinated campaigns. The National Unity Government is running multi-township offensives like the “Sittaung River Valley Victory Operation” covering 26 townships in Bago. In southern Chin State, four separate defense forces dissolved themselves to form a single unified command under what is being called the Chin People’s Union and Chin People’s Army (CPU/CPA). The Arakan Army is now in control of 14 of 17 townships in Rakhine, the KIA took Bhamo outposts with 20 junta soldiers surrendering, and the Chin Brotherhood recaptured Kennedy Hill’s 8,800-foot summit (again). This is the third time. Junta forces are still clinging to isolated strongholds relatively low numbers of troops in places like Sittwe, increasingly looking like they’re defending islands instead of a country.
Read more: Mizzima (Bago Offensive), Irrawaddy (Arakan Army Gains), Mizzima (Chin Forces Merger), Mizzima (KIA Advance)
Scorched Earth, Scorched Policy
The junta is retaking territory by making it worthless. In Chin State’s Falam Township, the military bombed its fourth hospital this month, leveling the Thibaul Station Hospital on January 11 in an airstrike that destroyed the 500 million kyat facility. In Mandalay Region, where troops recaptured three townships in December, the regime has arrested more than 40 residents, sealed homes, and allegedly killed or imprisoned the families of resistance fighters. The junta is also targeting rice mills and extorting displaced villagers at checkpoints, as well as restricting movement without “valid reasons.”
Read more: Mizzima (Hospital Destruction), Irrawaddy (Repression Tactics)
Women and the Unwell Paying the Steepest Price
The military killed nearly 800 women in 2025, including 154 girls under 18 and five pregnant women. Sagaing Region saw 217 fatalities. The military has also orchestrated 1,829 attacks on healthcare since February 2021, killing 165 health workers and arresting more than 900. A January 4 bombing of a hospital in Salingyi killed both a doctor and a 13-year-old boy. The Burmese Women’s Union says the targeting of both those trained to heal and those who sustain life are war crimes.
Read more: ReliefWeb (Healthcare Attacks), Mizzima (Casualties Report)
Kyat Craters as Gold Soars
The junta just lowered the share of export earnings that need to be swapped to kyats from a quarter to 15% in an admission that even exporters won’t take the national currency at the government’s fantasy rate of 2,100 per dollar when the market trading rate is 3,650. Citizens are panic-buying gold at 9.89 million kyats/ tical, a price that has risen by more than a million kyats in six weeks and now stands 7.5 times higher than the price before the coup.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Gold Crisis), Mizzima (Export Conversion)
Rare Earths Fuel the Fire
Myanmar has shipped more than 290,000 metric tons of rare earth materials to China since 2017, worth north of $4.2 billion, with about 85% of that total moving after the 2021 coup. The deposits are found in rebel-controlled territory, giving insurgent groups both cash and leverage against the junta. India is in talks to the Kachin Independence Organization about getting their hands on some product now, too. A global thirst for rare earths means this conflict has inadvertently become more geopolitically significant, and might get worse before it gets better.
Read more: CSMonitor
Displacement by the Numbers
Myanmar Witness has reported 284 incidents impacting displaced persons between January and June. The UN says 9.2 million people need help and is asking for almost $2 billion to cater to their needs for food, shelter, and health services. Researchers say that displacement found its peak in Magway, Sagaing, and Bago during March and June, during military campaigns. The finding that few places are still safe for civilians is damning precisely because of its specificity as a catalogue of suffering.
Read more: Mizzima (Displacement Details), ReliefWeb (Humanitarian Response)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— reply and tell us what you think.
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. You can also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below (or sometimes above, depending on the platform), which helps us get visibility on Substack.