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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
People’s Party Rides High Into February Vote
Vote-Buying Allegations Fly in Northeast
Charter Fight Heats Up
Pheu Thai Folds on Casino Bet
ITD’s Safety Record Claims More Lives
Central Bank Takes Aim at Gold Traders
Factory Mood Sours Before Election
Google Cloud Opens Bangkok Shop
Virtual Bank Trio Eyes Underbanked
NESDC Chief Lists Headwinds
Gas Law Stuck in Election Limbo
Cannabis Experiment Faces Reckoning
SEC Readies Crypto ETF Framework
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People’s Party Rides High Into February Vote
The People’s Party is polling at 30-34% and has its eyes set on at least half of 500 parliamentary seats ahead of the February 8 election. That’s an unprecedented position for a reform-oriented party that’s spent years getting slapped down by courts and conservatives. Deputy Leader Rangsiman Rome is giving credit to the rising party fortunes partly on a moderating party line on military relations and the royal insult law. The party has also stacked its ranks with experienced professionals, though some longer-term members are grumbling about the influx. Whether the courts or Election Commission find reasons to intervene before voters cast their ballots will be the story to watch, but the momentum is undeniable.
Read more: Yahoo News (Poll Numbers), Nation Thailand (Abhisit Platform), Nation Thailand (Debt Policies)
Vote-Buying Allegations Fly in Northeast
Thai Sang Thai Party leader Sudarat Keyuraphan as much as 100 million baht ($3.2M) is sloshing around the Northeast for vote-buying in a time-honored tradition that her party promises to stamp out if elected. Sudarat is pitching amendments to the constitution that she claims will improve citizen visibility, education, student debt, and low-interest lending.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Vote-Buying Allegations), Nation Thailand (Economic Policies)
Charter Fight Heats Up
PM candidates are trading blows over constitutional redrafts. Caretaker PM Anutin Charnvirakul claims that the charter’s Sections 1 and 2 (preserving the kingdom’s undivided status and the constitutional monarchy) have to remain off limits, warning that leaving them open invites “interference or infiltration.” Jade Donavanik of Rak Chart went further, saying new constitution campaigns are the tactics of “corrupt politicians” to gut the 2017 charter’s anti-corruption safeguards. He is trying to stir up fear of a coalition forming between Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai, and others that he says is intended to protect their own from accountability.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Charter Trap), Bangkok Post (Anutin Position)
Pheu Thai Folds on Casino Bet
Pheu Thai has quietly shelved its casino legalization push, and is now turning its ardor towards wellness and medical tourism. PM candidate Yodchanan Wongsawat says the party needs to “align industries with social values”, which might get a chuckle from those who contrast the view from predecessor Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s plans for large-scale “entertainment complexes.” The Senate killed the Entertainment Complex Bill last year, ostensibly because of concerns over gambling addiction and money laundering - but polls also showed that older and rural voters were skeptical.
Read more: Sigma World (Policy Shift), IGaming Today (Political Strategy)
ITD’s Safety Record Claims More Lives
The State Railway plans to terminate Italian-Thai Development’s contract on the Thai-Chinese high-speed rail project and blacklist the company after two fatal crane accidents killed 34 people within 24 hours earlier this month. First, a crane collapse in Nakhon Ratchasima killed 32 train passengers; then another near Bangkok killed two drivers the next day. Preliminary findings are that failures in basic safety communication might be, at least partly, to blame as work was being done while trains passed. The proposal is going to the SRT Board on January 29. Currently, 14 ITD contracts are under a 15-day safety suspension. ITD says it accepts responsibility, but the company was already facing charges after a building collapse last March killed nearly 100 during the earthquake.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Contract Termination), Reuters (Construction Suspension), Thaiger (Company History)
Central Bank Takes Aim at Gold Traders
The Bank of Thailand will cap online gold trading at 50-100 million baht daily per account starting January 29, blaming gold speculation for the baht’s 1.2% rise against the dollar this year after a 9% rise in 2025. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn says the strong baht threatens export and tourism competitiveness. Its far from sure that the changes will do much - external factors like the softening dollar and expected rate cuts are driving appreciation far more than domestic gold trading. The baht is Asia’s best-performing currency of late, and gold prices have been rising in every denomination. A business tax on gold trading is still under consideration if the caps fall short of having the hoped-for results.
Read more: Reuters (Trading Cap), Bangkok Post (Expert Analysis)
Factory Mood Sours Before Election
Industrial sentiment slipped to 88.2 in December from a seven-month high of 89.1 in November. The Federation of Thai Industries has plenty of fingers to point: border tensions with Cambodia, policy uncertainty, the strong baht, and sluggish manufacturing are all prime culprits. The incoming government is going to need to move fast on reforms in tourism, agriculture, and industry or risk stagnating at 1-2% annual growth even as public debt keeps moving higher.
Read more: Bangkok Post (December Data), Bangkok Post (Reform Urgency)
Google Cloud Opens Bangkok Shop
Google Cloud now has a Bangkok region as part of a billion dollar investment that it announced in 2024. The new region promises high-performance, low-latency services for locals. The company says the facility is expected to contribute 1.4 trillion baht in economic value and support around 130,000 jobs. Big numbers. Separately, CP Group CEO Suphachai Chearavanont is trying to set Thailand up as an ASEAN tech hub, and is proposing a 100 billion baht government fund to support 200,000 student startup teams.
Read more: CRN Asia (Google Investment), Nation Thailand (CP Hub Strategy)
Virtual Bank Trio Eyes Underbanked
SCBX, KakaoBank, and WeBank Technology Services have formalized a partnership to open a virtual bank. SCBX says it brings local market knowledge, KakaoBank will bring mobile-first banking experience from Korea, and WeBank is going to supply the digital infrastructure. CEO Arthid Nanthawithaya says they want to make banking more widely available to the underserved. The collab comes after regional regulators in Singapore, Malaysia, and Hong Kong have all already licensed virtual banks to get to customers that traditional institutions have ignored.
Read more: IBS Intelligence
NESDC Chief Lists Headwinds
NESDC Secretary-General Dr. Danucha Pichayanan laid out five global megatrends that he says Thailand needs to navigate. Trade wars are hitting hard disk and automotive exports, geopolitical pressure are rising to keep a sense of neutrality between the US and China, AI is set to upend the workforce, an aging population is putting the hurt on traditional welfare systems, and climate change is requiring agricultural adaptation.
Read more: Nation Thailand
Gas Law Stuck in Election Limbo
The Department of Mineral Fuels has made amendments to the Petroleum Act that are intended to make sure production can stay uninterrupted after licenses expire, but the caretaker government is unable to approve binding projects under election law. The amendments would help keep a lid on rising electricity costs that are being pressured by reliance on imported LNG after domestic production setbacks. Expiring licenses at the Bongkot and Erawan gas fields came alongside the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, which caused LNG prices to spike and forced government subsidies.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Cannabis Experiment Faces Reckoning
The 2022 cannabis decriminalization was supposed to boost the economy through medical cannabis and health tourism. Instead, recreational use surged (particularly among children, allegedly), and caused a backlash that could lead to re-criminalization after the election. Officials are scrambling to try and stay ahead of rising social concerns as political winds have shifted against the policy.
Read more: Japan Times
SEC Readies Crypto ETF Framework
The SEC is finalizing rules for crypto ETFs, futures trading, and tokenized investments and guidelines should be out soon. Deputy Secretary-General Jomkwan Kongsakul says crypto ETFs help investors who are fearful of private key management and security risks get into the space. The SEC is supportive of crypto futures under the Derivatives Act, although there is a 5% allocation limit to digital assets. A regulatory sandbox for tokenized products, starting with bond tokens, is being worked on with the Bank of Thailand too.
Read more: Cryptorank
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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Thank you!
Solid roundup. The central bank capping gold trading to manage the baht is a fascianting move. Probably won't work much given the macro drivers but it signals how uncomfortable they're getting with currency strength. I've noticed a lot of emerging market central banks gettng more experimental with capital controls lately, especially after seeing how the strong dollar wave hit everyone in 2022.