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Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

Feb 27, 2026

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Headlines:

One More Cut, Then the Well Runs Dry

People's Party Sues the Referee

Markets Shrug Off Court Drama

Strong Baht Prices Out Rice

Exports Boom, Imports Boom Harder

Sin Tax Reaches for the Salt Shaker

Big Four Platforms Circle the Wagons

Public Broadcaster's Books Get Their First Audit

Peak Season Meets Peak Water

Cyber Joins the Jungle Gym

Thaksin's Parole Clock Ticks Toward May

Courting Europe Through Lisbon's Back Door

Bangkok's AI Traffic Lights Actually Seem to Work

One More Cut, Then the Well Runs Dry

The Bank of Thailand sliced its policy rate by 25 basis points to an even 1.00% on Wednesday, the sixth cut since October 2024 and the lowest level in more than three years, in a 4-2 vote that caught most economists flat-footed. The central bank pointed to U.S. tariff uncertainty and a baht that gained 9% last year as pressures on exporters and tourism operators. But Assistant Governor Don Nakornthab called the move "front-loading" and suggested the easing cycle may be near its end, as the current stance is "sufficiently accommodative." The bank revised growth forecasts up to 1.9% from 1.5% earlier in the week, so the urgency to cut may be fading even as household debt and small business credit access remain tight.

Read more: Reuters, Bangkok Post, FX Street (DBS pause forecast)

People's Party Sues the Referee

The People's Party filed criminal charges Thursday against the Election Commission, alleging the body that ran the February 8 election stamped identifying marks on ballot papers and otherwise shirked its duties. Deputy leader Wayo Assawarungruang filed the complaint at the Criminal Court for Corruption and Misconduct Cases, pointing the finger at all seven commissioners plus two senior officials under anti-corruption and election law statutes. The move opens a second front: the same court will rule March 17 on whether to accept a separate complaint over QR codes and barcodes printed on ballots, an issue that's had voters questioning whether their votes stayed secret. Wayo said proceedings could stretch a decade if they wind through appeals, and the party wants the Attorney General barred from defending the EC officials.

Read more: Bangkok Post (criminal complaint specifics), Thai Enquirer (SLAPP lawsuit context)

Markets Shrug Off Court Drama

The SET index cracked 1,500 points Wednesday, closing at 1,511 with 80 billion baht in volume as investors bet Bhumjaithai's super-majority will be good for stability regardless of legal challenges. The rally came as the Election Commission certified nearly 400 MPs and as good factory output numbers added to the optimism. The Manufacturing Production Index up 1.4% year-on-year in January, lifted by a 6.3% jump in automotive production on strong EV and hybrid demand. Krungsri Securities is pushing a sector-picks strategy built around the coalition's policy pledges, BBL Asset Management raised its SET target from 1,450 to 1,520 points.

Read more: Bangkok Post (SET index targets), Bangkok Post (manufacturing sector data)

Strong Baht Prices Out Rice

Rice exports are expected to drop 11% this year to 7 million tons, a five-year low, as the baht's rally (see lead story) is pricing the local grain out of global markets. The Rice Exporters Association warned Wednesday that around $4 billion in annual export revenue is at risk in a sector that (according to the article) employs one in four workers. The country that once led global rice shipments slipped to third place last year.

Exports Boom, Imports Boom Harder

Exports were up almost a full quarter in January to $31.6 billion, the kind of number that usually gets finance ministers excited. Imports rose faster, though, climbing 29.4% and leaving a $3.3 billion trade deficit for the month. The gap comes as manufacturers stock up on inputs and capital goods, betting on sustained foreign demand even as new U.S. tariff threats loom over Asia's export economies. The next test comes when Washington's reciprocal tariff review finishes on April 2.

Read more: Thai Enquirer (trade deficit figures), Thai Enquirer (tourism decline context), Thai Enquirer (US tariff dynamics)

Sin Tax Reaches for the Salt Shaker

The Excise Department is preparing a formal proposal for a phased sodium tax on packaged food manufacturers, which would make the country the first in Asia to levy nationwide taxes on both sugar and salt. The pitch will go to the new government soon, according to Rachada Wanichakorn, deputy director-general at Excise. The 2017 sugar tax on drinks set the precedent. This time the rationale is hypertension and kidney disease, conditions tied to a salt-heavy diet. The move puts F&B companies with local production on notice that the sin tax playbook keeps expanding.

Big Four Platforms Circle the Wagons

Grab, Lazada, Line Man Wongnai, and Shopee formed the Thai Digital Platform Trade Association this week to lobby the government as a unified voice, explicitly warning against European-style over-regulation that they say has smothered innovation. The pitch covers online fraud, SME export standards, and intellectual property, but the group's formation comes as Bangkok prepares to draft rules for the $56 billion digital economy, which grew 16% in 2025 and now ranks second in Southeast Asia behind Indonesia. Line Man Wongnai's senior director of government affairs pointed to Europe's loss of tech leadership to the US as a cautionary tale, making clear the platforms want light-touch, risk-based regulation that won't slow their growth.

Public Broadcaster's Books Get Their First Audit

The State Audit Office has never once looked at how Thai PBS spends the roughly THB2 billion it collects yearly from alcohol and tobacco levies, and after three straight years of losses, someone finally got curious. Auditor General Monthien Charoenpol sent a task force in mid-February to pick through the public broadcaster's books, with early attention landing on THB36 million in direct-award contracts to a single company. Thai PBS has been run since 2008 as the country's first non-profit public media organization, funded by a 1.5% earmarked cut of excise taxes, and until now nobody with subpoena power bothered to ask where it all goes.

Peak Season Meets Peak Water

Record rainfall flooded at least 10 provinces across southern Thailand over the past week, reportedly stranding thousands of tourists and forcing businesses in Hat Yai to close for two weeks during the height of travel season. Military helicopters and ships are pulling people out of Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat, while floodwaters have blocked major highways including Sripoovanart Road, leaving traffic at a standstill for hours. Canada, Malaysia, and several other countries issued travel advisories warning their citizens to avoid the affected areas. Hotels, markets, and shopping malls remain shuttered; emergency shelters for stranded visitors are being set up.

Cyber Joins the Jungle Gym

Cobra Gold, the world's longest-running international military exercise, kicked off Tuesday with more than 8,000 personnel from 30 countries, adding cyber, space, and unmanned systems training for the first time. It's the first time these domains have appeared in a Southeast Asian multilateral exercise. Full participants include the U.S., Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia, while China, India, and Australia are joining selected humanitarian activities through March 6.

Read more: South China Morning Post, US Pacific Fleet (cyber training focus)

Thaksin's Parole Clock Ticks Toward May

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra becomes eligible for parole on May 10 after serving two-thirds of his one-year sentence at Klong Prem Central Prison. He's been in the pokey since September 9, 2025, when the Supreme Court ruled that his time spent in a police hospital didn't count toward his term. A sentence reduction panel will decide whether he gets an ankle monitor as a parting gift.

Courting Europe Through Lisbon's Back Door

Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkoew asked Portugal to back wrapping up the EU-Thailand FTA by year-end and getting the country into the OECD by 2030. Negotiations with Brussels restarted in 2023 after being frozen for nearly a decade. Portugal also agreed to support Schengen visa exemptions for Thai nationals. If finished, the FTA would be the first major EU trade deal in Southeast Asia since Vietnam's in 2020.

Bangkok's AI Traffic Lights Actually Seem to Work

City Hall is expanding its adaptive traffic signal system from 74 intersections to 124 this year after the AI-powered cameras delivered 10-41% cuts in travel times across major corridors. The technology is apparently able to observe traffic flow in real time and adjusts light cycles accordingly, fixing the old fixed-timer problem that frequently had drivers parked at red lights with nobody coming. The notoriously jammed Phra Khanong and Sukhumvit 71 junctions now run cycles in six minutes instead of the twelve of yesteryear.

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