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Headlines:
10,000 Walk Free, but Not the One Who Matters
Beijing's Power Play Unplugged as Rebels Reach State Capital
Junta Bombs the Marketplace
Follow the Tungsten: Junta Eyes the Mines Funding Its Enemies
Counting the Lost Generation
Jade on Life Support as Junta Hands Gem Trade to Beijing
Lousy With Mines
Beijing Bets on the Generals
The Case for Backing the NUG
10,000 Walk Free, but Not the One Who Matters
Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing pardoned 10,162 prisoners on Monday and dropped charges against another 12,487, celebrating Peasants' Day with the junta's largest amnesty since the coup. The sweep includes 7,337 people convicted under counterterrorism laws the regime has used to jail political opponents, journalists and student activists over the past five years. Among those freed were former Naypyitaw mayor Myo Aung and journalist Hmu Yadanar Khet Moh Moh Tun, who was sentenced to 13 years in prison in May 2023. Aung San Suu Kyi, 80, was not listed as one of those released. The Nobel laureate remains locked up on a 27-year sentence, virtually incommunicado, while her son publicly questions whether she's even alive. More than 22,800 political prisoners are still being held as of Feb. 27, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.
Read more: AP News (named released journalists), The Irrawaddy, Yahoo (political prisoner count), GNLM
Beijing's Power Play Unplugged as Rebels Reach State Capital
The Arakan Army reached the outskirts of Sittwe on Monday, bringing the ethnic armed group in striking distance of a state capital for the first time. The advance was cause for an immediate Chinese response and a power plant contractor in Kyaukphyu, 70 kilometers south, pulled its staff and equipment from the Belt and Road port city as fighting closed in. Beijing has spent years talking up Kyaukphyu as the western anchor of its infrastructure corridor to the Indian Ocean; the power plant is supposed to supply a $1.3 billion deep-sea port and special economic zone. Now the Arakan Army controls most of Rakhine State and the military holds little beyond Sittwe itself, where regime troops are reportedly digging in for what looks like a siege. The contractor's withdrawal is the first time combat has directly disrupted a major Chinese project in Myanmar.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (combat proximity/casualties), The Irrawaddy
Junta Bombs the Marketplace
Military jets hit a trading junction near Mindon township twice on Sunday morning, killing at least 25 people and torching 14 vehicles at a commercial exchange point where goods move between Magway and Rakhine State. The attack targeted a road where locals and truck drivers load and swap merchandise, not a military position. Most victims were traders from Rakhine, where the Arakan Army controls 14 of 17 townships and the junta has choked off trade routes for months. Another airstrike hit a village market in Rakhine's Ponnagyun township last Tuesday, killing at least 17. The military hasn't mentioned either attack.
Read more: AP News
Follow the Tungsten: Junta Eyes the Mines Funding Its Enemies
The Tatmadaw is massing forces around the Mawchi mines in Karenni State, a tin and tungsten complex that's been bankrolling resistance fighters since they took control of it last year. The junta's buildup appears to be in advance of an offensive to retake one of the region's most valuable mineral deposits, which the Karenni resistance has turned into a cash cow that’s been keeping weapons and supplies flowing.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Counting the Lost Generation
2025 killed more children in Myanmar than any year since the coup, with girls hit hardest, according to the UN human rights office's annual update. Nearly a quarter of the population have had to deal with “severe” food insecurity, a figure the UN says we should expect to rise as the regime continues to mismanage the economy and block support aid. Civilian deaths from airstrikes also hit record levels. It was also no surprise that the report said that the military's nationwide elections lacked "basic elements of freedom, fairness, and representativeness.” Both the junta and opposition armed groups have allowed transnational criminal networks (including drug production and scam centers) to grow in areas under their respective control.
Read more: The Irrawaddy, Mizzima (food insecurity)
Jade on Life Support as Junta Hands Gem Trade to Beijing
For the first time, Myanmar's jade showcase will be held on Chinese soil. The regime signed an MoU with Yunnan officials on February 24 to hold a gems exhibition in China's Jiegao border zone, after its own jade emporiums failed to bring in buyers like they used to. Natural Resources Minister Khin Maung Yi is promoting the arrangement as anti-smuggling cooperation. Chinese traders have largely stayed away from Naypyitaw's annual fairs since the coup, spooked by border closures and Beijing's crackdown on WeChat-based transactions. The regime's November 2025 emporium had than 5,000 jade lots available, but most buyers stayed home.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Lousy with Mines
Myanmar recorded 2,029 landmine and UXO casualties in 2024, double the previous year's toll and more than Syria, Afghanistan, or Ukraine. Civilians were 86 percent of victims. Shan State saw the highest casualties, followed by Sagaing, Magway, Rakhine, and Bago. Both the junta and resistance forces have sprinkled the devices near phone towers, mines, and fuel pipelines, and neither side has really shown any interest in marking where they’ve been planted.
Read more: Karen News
Beijing Bets on the Generals
The junta's Union Solidarity and Development Party claimed 339 of 586 parliamentary seats in the election, giving military-aligned blocs 86% control once the 166 seats automatically reserved for the Tatmadaw are added to the tally. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is setting up a consultative body to ease himself out of daily admin even as he continues with his hand on the tiller. China is backing this consolidation to ensure it protects its access to rare earth minerals. According to one analysis, a possible Trump administration rapprochement with Naypyidaw could undercut Beijing's influence just as it thought it had locked in a compliant neighbor.
Read more: ChinaUS focus
The Case for Backing the NUG
A new op-ed in Eurasia Review presents the junta as a strategic distraction that benefits Beijing, and argues that Western capitals should push ahead to formally recognize the National Unity Government as Myanmar’s legitimate authority. The article makes parallels with the stats quo in Iran, casting both regimes as Chinese assets designed to tie down Western resources while Beijing locks up economic corridors and port access for itself. The NUG recognition argument has gained some attention in Washington and European policy circles, though it currently has ~zero traction in ASEAN capitals, where member states are publicly staying committed to dealing with the junta through the bloc's five-point consensus.
Read more: Eurasiareview
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