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Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

Mar 20, 2026

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Headlines:

Pumps Dry, Tanks Full

Back in the Chair, First Time in Twenty Years

Spuds and Shrapnel

Bangkok's General Calls on Naypyidaw

Follow the 500-Baht Notes

Concrete Rising While Factories Idle

Got Milk? Got Problems

BMW Hits the Brakes

Fifty Years, 789 Projects Later

Pumps Dry, Tanks Full

Reserves stand at 5.06 billion liters of fuel, enough for 41 days of normal consumption, yet nearly three-quarters of surveyed service stations are reporting partial or complete depletion of fuel through Thursday. Panic buying pushed daily diesel demand to 84 million liters, well above the 77-million-liter production ceiling. In Kalasin province, restricted refueling forced two subdistrict ambulance units to stop operations and rely on neighbors for patient transport. Energy Minister Auttapol Rerkpiboon began raising the diesel price cap from 30 baht per liter in incremental steps toward 33 baht to lessen the subsidy strain; he’s also promising penalties for retailers who are caught selling above regulated prices. The government extended Bangkok tanker truck operations to round-the-clock and has now placed price controls on 59 goods. The PM insists crude imports are continuing normally despite the closed Strait of Hormuz, but admitted that prices will eventually have to follow the market.

Back in the Chair, First Time in Twenty Years

Anutin Charnvirakul won parliamentary re-election as prime minister on Thursday with 293 votes, one more than his coalition's 292 seats, becoming the first PM voted back to office in two decades. Bhumjaithai's coalition with Pheu Thai and a motley crew of smaller parties comfortably cleared the 251-vote threshold. The 59-year-old royalist has weathered two decades of upheaval by setting Bhumjaithai up between warring elites, most recently abandoning Pheu Thai's coalition government before angling to form his own after courts sacked the previous prime minister. Anutin is going to have to deal with the immediate headwinds of household debt, trade uncertainty, and fallout from the war in the Middle East, though Bhumjaithai has so far been spared the wrath of the military and judiciary that has seen the downfall of multiple governments.

Read more: CNA, Bloomberg, Bangkok Post, Thai Enquirer

Spuds and Shrapnel

Chaiwat Waewnin, a potato farmer working 12 kilometers from Herzliya (Tel Aviv), was killed by cluster warheads on Wednesday. The 36-year-old had been in Israel less than a year, having left through the Department of Employment last May. His family in Chaiyaphum province will receive 151,459 baht (roughly $4,200, about four months at the minimum wage) in combined benefits from social security and overseas worker funds, in addition to compensation from the Israel Insurance Institute. The Foreign Affairs Ministry is trying to get 1,173 Thais to relocate or get out as danger spreads. Four Thais remain in Iran under active rescue operations, while two who made it from Iran to Turkey have just arrived back in Bangkok.

Bangkok's General Calls on Naypyidaw

Army Chief Chalermchai Sitthisad met Myanmar junta boss Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw on Wednesday, a day after Washington announced new sanctions on scam compound operators along the border. Bangkok is keeping military-to-military ties with the pariah regime just as US pressure on transnational fraud networks is coming to a new pitch.

Follow the 500-Baht Notes

The Bank of Thailand detected more than 250 million baht in suspicious cash withdrawals, with some customers requesting only 500-baht notes, a preference that makes large sums easier to move discreetly. Starting April 1, banks are going to be required to treat any cash withdrawal of 5 million baht or more in a single day as high-risk, requiring customers to explain the source and purpose with documents to back up their claims. Banks will be allowed to refuse transactions if the paperwork falls short. The focus on high-denomination notes suggests the central bank is chasing a specific cross-border cash problem, not just routine money laundering.

Concrete Rising While Factories Idle

Bangkok's luxury condo market rose 18% year-on-year in February even as industrial output slipped 3.2%, squeezed by energy costs that climbed 22% since January. High-end units priced higher than 15 million baht are moving briskly in Sukhumvit and Sathorn, even as auto parts makers and electronics plants are cutting shifts. A tale of two markets.

Got Milk? Got Problems

More than 1,000 dairy farmers descended on the Agriculture Ministry on Thursday to protest a draft rule that would cut the private sector's share of the school-milk program from 42% to 30%, giving the remaining 70% to cooperatives and state enterprises. The squeeze has already created a 769-metric-ton daily raw-milk surplus, and smaller producers say the new allocation is going to finish them off.

BMW Hits the Brakes

BMW Group Thailand scrapped its optimistic 2026 sales forecast this week, and now expects the overall luxury car market to stay flat as US-Iran tensions push oil prices higher. The retreat follows a rough 2025, when the luxury segment was hammered down more than 10% to about 26,000 units. BMW sold 10,611 automobiles last year and had been expecting growth this year before crude volatility changed the math. Still, the company expects its own domestic sales to rise by double digits in 2026, banking on new model launches, including the first vehicle from its Neue Klasse generation, to grab share even in a stagnant market.

Fifty Years, 789 Projects Later

According to Vietnam's consul general, bilateral trade with Thailand now runs to $22.1 billion, with 789 Thai investment projects active on the ground. The two countries celebrated a half-century of diplomatic ties with a trade dialogue at Khon Kaen University. Hanoi is looking for 10% average annual growth through 2030 and a shift from what’s traditionally been a manufacturing based economy to one more tech focused. Let’s see if Thailand can keep up.

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