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Headlines:
Same Sam, But Different
Junta Opens Parliament, Kills 100
Genocide Case Lands in Jakarta
New Delhi RSVPs to the General's Party
Beijing Claps, ASEAN Shrugs
Highway Opens, Hill Roads Choke
Federal Council Oversees a Fractured Alliance
Empty Pumps, Full Prices
Same Same, But Different
Min Aung Hlaing locked in his presidency Friday with 429 of 584 votes in a parliament that his junta stuffed with loyalists. This turn give him an “official” grip on power that he took at gunpoint five years ago. The 69-year-old stepped down as military chief on Monday and passed command to Ye Win Oo, his former spymaster, in a move that the constitution demanded, but fooling nobody about who runs the show. The parliamentary vote comes after elections in December and January that the UN and Western governments roundly dismissed as a sham. The general is now likely to be a bit of a diplomatic headache for ASEAN. The group has kept him out of their summits for the past five years, but may struggle to justify shutting out a man with a civilian title, no matter how he got it.
Read more: Chosun (vice presidents named), CNBC (USDP party dominance), The Guardian (UN atrocity accusations), Independent (90% parliament control), Yahoo Finance (female VP first)
Junta Opens Parliament, Kills 100
About 100 civilians have been killed by airstrikes in the three weeks since parliament opened. Jets are increasingly flying in fleets of up to eight aircraft against single targets. The deadliest attack was March 20, when planes pounded a monastery sheltering displaced families, killing about 80, including monks and children. On Monday, shortly after the new military chief took command, jets bombed a clinic in Budalin for about an hour, killing seven patients. Further strikes struck Arakan Army-held areas in Rakhine, killing four civilians.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Genocide Case Lands in Jakarta
Civil society groups filed a genocide complaint against Min Aung Hlaing at Indonesia's Attorney General's Office on Sunday. Its the first case officially received under the country's new penal code that allows universal jurisdiction over serious international crimes. The complaint, filed by Rohingya activist Yasmin Ullah along with Indonesia's former attorney general Marzuki Darusman and representatives one of Indonesia's largest Muslim groups, accuses the new president of overseeing the 2017 military campaign that forced more than 700,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh. An ASEAN member state accepting a genocide case against an ASEAN leader is new ground, especially since Indonesia is home to the bloc's HQ.
Read more: Straits Times (displacement figures), The Star (prosecutor confirmation), Anadolu Agency (ICC warrant context), DVB (fifth jurisdiction attempt)
New Delhi RSVPs to the General's Party
Minister of State Kirti Vardhan Singh will represent India at the new president's inauguration in Nay Pyi Taw on Friday, after arriving today to start four days of meetings on trade and development assistance. The Indian Army recently installed a weapons training simulator at a junta combat school, celebrating the moment with the hashtag #IndiaMyanmarFriendship. New Delhi has so far remained mostly quiet on the election itself but has kept the engagement running. Bilateral trade is strong, reported at $2.15 billion last fiscal year.
Read more: The Print (inauguration), Hindustan Times (diaspora engagement), DVB (weapons simulator), Economic Times (trade growth)
Beijing Claps, ASEAN Shrugs
Xi Jinping personally messaged Min Aung Hlaing, joining Russia, Belarus and Nicaragua in backing the junta's civilian rebrand. Beijing said that it's willing to work with the new government to promote the Belt and Road, keep the peace, and "deliver greater benefits to the people of both countries." The Philippines said it will keep engaging through ASEAN. The United Wa State Army was the first ethnic force to send felicitations, praising the new president's "remarkable successes" in national stability, and the Mongla-based National Democratic Alliance Army quickly followed their lead. Both groups run autonomous enclaves on the Chinese border and have every reason to keep on his good side.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Wa congratulations), DVB (genocide case filed), China Daily Asia (Belt and Road), China Daily (Xi personal message), Manila Times (Philippines response)
Highway Opens, Hill Roads Choke
After a two-year shutdown, the military reopened the 132-kilometer Asian Highway from Hpa-an to Myawaddy on Thursday, but at the same time blocked alternate routes through the Dawna Hills that Karen armed groups control. The highway helped to support more than a billion dollars of annual trade with Thailand until fiscal 2023-24, but the junta is still not allowing formal imports even with the road open, forcing Thai goods onto mountain back roads where a dozen checkpoints run by four regime-aligned militias collect daily fees. Regime troops closed the Nadi Linn Myaing junction at the base of the Dawna Hills on Thursday morning, also cutting access to those routes. Traders say nothing has changed significantly and they remain dependent on the smuggling networks the junta is trying (but apparently struggling) to strangle.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Federal Council Oversees a Fractured Alliance
A new opposition steering council was formed March 30, promising unity even as two of the resistance's most important allies are battling each other in Shan State. The Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union brings together the National Unity Government and several of the most important ethnic armed groups including the Karen National Union, Karenni National Progressive Party, and Chin National Front. The council's six objectives are mostly centered on ending military involvement in politics and getting a federal constitution drafted.
Read more: Shan Herald (SCEF objectives detailed), Frontier Myanmar (Brotherhood alliance fractures)
Empty Pumps, Full Prices
Lineups have been forming overnight in Yangon and Mandalay as the country's 90-96% import dependency comes into contact with supply shocks from Iran conflict. Diesel prices are now up to nearly MMK 4,000 a liter, up from MMK 2,260 at the time of the coup, and gasoline prices are up by more than half. Authorities limited purchases to 50,000 kyats each visit under a chaotic QR-based rationing system that apparently isn’t working very well. The rice paddies are getting hit hard too, as farmers are unable to afford to run diesel-dependent machinery as planting season arrives.
Read more: Open Magazine
That's all for this week, thanks for reading. Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back- hit reply and tell us what you think.
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