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Headlines:
Hormuz Hits Home
Dusty Decree, Fresh Teeth
Confidence, Bonds, Growth: All Sinking
Bangkok Breaks Ranks for the Generals
Twenty Billion Baht and a Torture Basement
Fifty-One Million Reasons to Shut Up
Army Beats the Job Market
Fewer Tourists, Fatter Wallets
Green Cars, Grey Batteries
Princess and the Plan
Chiang Mai Chokes Its Way to Number One
Hormuz Hits Home
Three crew members aboard the ship Mayuree Naree have now finally been confirmed dead after the vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz on March 11, Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said Wednesday. Nine more ships are still sitting stranded near the waterway waiting to test a two-week US-Iran ceasefire that is just hours old, as the fallout in Thailand continues to worsen. Jet fuel costs have risen 90 to 100 percent in four weeks. Diesel rose past 50 baht per liter over the weekend, up from 30 baht in late February, pushing the cost of getting rice harvested in Chiang Rai up to 700 baht a rai and leaving a motorcycle taxi stand in Chainat with solitary driver who is still willing to work. Prime Minister Anutin is asking the people to work-from-home and to carpool, conceding that Thailand "cannot remain complacent" despite having more of an oil reserve buffer than some of its neighbors. Songkran bookings in Hat Yai are running behind, with hotel rooms still available on normally sold-out dates, and nationwide holiday spending is expected to drop 3.7 percent to 130 billion baht.
Read more: Bangkok Post (airline executive quotes), Bangkok Post (prices), CNA (Iranian Guards statement), Asian News Network (Oman rescue), The Guardian (palm oil controls)
Dusty Decree, Fresh Teeth
The government is dusting off a 1973 emergency fuel law that would give the Prime Minister power over the oil market, including the ability to control refineries, ration fuel, and set factory hours. The reason for bringing out the stick is that refining margins that sat at 2 to 3 baht per liter for four to five years, climbed to 7 baht in March, then rose again to 16 to 17 baht in early April. Energy Minister Akanat Promphan has been told to negotiate with refiners first, but the decree sits ready as a fallback. The law has teeth, and allows for penalties of up to 10 years in prison. A separate investigation tracked 11,067 tanker trucks and turned up a handful of “irregularities” in the fuel supply chain, but none of those was at any of the refineries. The government is also putting restrictions on palm oil exports to protect biodiesel supplies.
Read more: Asian News Network (decree penalties), Thai Enquirer (truck tracking evidence), Biofuels News (palm export limits)
Confidence, Bonds, Growth: All Sinking
Sovereign debt has lost 4.1% since the end of February, one of the world's worst performers, and 10-year yields rose 52 basis points in March, the biggest move since September 2022. The Bank of Thailand held its policy rate at an even 1.00% Thursday but also expects GDP growth to come in at just 1.3% to 1.7% for the year. Governor Vitai Ratanakorn says the current rate appropriate for now, though says that inflation could land in the 2.5% to 3.5% range this year if energy prices stay high. Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low of 51.8 in March, with nearly all consumers expecting their income over the next six months to either fall or stay flat. The World Bank says Thailand is one of the economies most exposed to energy price shocks.
Read more: Bloomberg (bond performance ranking), Bangkok Post (rate decision rationale), TradingView (income expectations), Thai Enquirer (oil impact quantified)
Bangkok Breaks Ranks for the Generals
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul was the first ASEAN leader to congratulate Myanmar's coup leader Min Aung Hlaing on his appointment as president-elect, breaking with a regional consensus that has kept junta leaders out of ASEAN meetings since 2021. Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow followed with his own message Monday, expressing hope for "forging a new chapter" with Naypyitaw, and former Foreign Minister Panpree Bahiddha-Nukara is expected to be there today for Min Aung Hlaing's inauguration. Bangkok has kept always maintained some level of engagement with the junta (for example, it hosted a junta foreign minister just three weeks after the 2021 coup), and the billions in cross-border trade and direct investments into Myanmar always shade Bangkok's calculations.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Twenty Billion Baht and a Torture Basement
Authorities froze another 8.27 billion baht in assets linked to Ben Smith and associates, pushing the total past 20 billion baht in seizures they say are linked to the Cambodian scam networks. The latest haul includes six vehicles, bank deposits, securities, and a luxury yacht now parked with the Royal Thai Navy that’s going to be put on the auction block. The military walked reporters through an abandoned scam compound near the Cambodian border that was captured during December's fighting. Of 151 buildings on the site, 29 housed scam operations, one of them was decorated like a government hall featuring a portrait of Ho Chi Minh, presumably as a video backdrop. The basement reportedly was fitted out with cells, handcuffs, restraint belts, and a 3-meter wall topped with barbed wire and cameras pointed inward. More than 10,000 people from more than a dozen countries are said to have been working there before escaping when the shooting started. Smith himself left Bangkok for Dubai last September, then left again on an 85-meter yacht in February. He is now believed to be near the Seychelles.
Read more: AP News (US loss figures), Bangkok Post (compensation process), Asahi (compound layout)
Fifty-One Million Reasons to Shut Up
Environment minister Suchart Chomklin wants 51 million baht in damages from two journalists whose reporting connected him to a berry-picker trafficking bribery scheme. Suchart filed criminal defamation suits on February 27 against Isaan Record editor-in-chief Hathairat Phaholtap (50 million baht) and against editor Kowit Phothisan (1 million baht) over Facebook posts that pointed to the outlet's reporting that politicians took bribes from brokers sending workers to Finland between 2020 and 2023. The National Anti-Corruption Commission is reviewing an investigation that implicates Suchart and several senior Labor Ministry officials in the deal. Human Rights Watch says Suchart’s suits are retaliatory, and the National Human Rights Commission is using them to support their call for anti-SLAPP legislation.
Read more: Human Rights Watch
Army Beats the Job Market
At a Bangkok temple this week, only 21 of 68 eligible men had to draw cards from the conscription jar because the rest had already signed up for six-month stints in exchange for about 11,000 baht ($340) monthly (that’s roughly minimum wage), with food and housing thrown in. Voluntary enlistment has climbed steadily over the past five years, enough that some districts now fill their April quotas without resorting to the lottery at all. Nearly 30,000 men volunteered this year, an increase of almost 50 percent from 2024. It seem as though even though the risks on enlistment today are higher than in the past, rising nationalism has been working as a counterweight to keep the numbers up.
Read more: Bloomberg (paywall, five-year trend), KDH News (lottery mechanics)
Fewer Tourists, Fatter Wallets
The Tourism Authority officially has abandoned its 40-million visitor target, recalibrating its 2026 expectations to 30-34 million arrivals and 3.4 trillion baht in revenue. Mandatory travel insurance is moving toward an entry requirement after state hospitals last year were forced to absorb more than 3 billion baht in unpaid bills from uninsured foreigners, with Phuket's main public hospital alone eating 100 million baht yearly in motorcycle crashes and diving accidents. There is also a long-discussed 300-baht tourist tax that is still being mulled over and is currently under cabinet review.
Read more: Bangkok Post (diesel cost impact), Bangkok Post (four-year plan), Travel and Tour World (Pattaya transition), TAT News (Q1 arrival figures), Travel and Tour World (ETA integration)
Green Cars, Grey Batteries
BYD's 948,000 square meter Rayong plant has the capacity to crank out 150,000 vehicles yearly, and the government's 30@30 target calls for 725,000 zero-emission cars and pickups to roll off assembly lines annually by 2030. The batteries powering all that green ambition are going to start piling up, with around 200,000 tonnes of spent cells by 2033, then 2.5 million tonnes a decade later. There is concern in some quarters that Thailand has no formal recycling infrastructure to handle them. Lithium, cobalt, nickel and lead leaching into soil and water is the obvious problem. The less obvious one is thermal runaway, when damaged batteries overheat faster than they can cool, turning warehouses and ports into potential firebombs. The government reportedly has no licensing framework in place and no deadline to create one.
Read more: Dialogue Earth
Princess and the Plan
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn in Beijing on April 8, where the usual promises about cooperation in technology, education, and agriculture were shared as China kicks off its 15th Five-Year Plan. Wang said the princess has made 57 visits to China over 45 years, calling her an "old and good friend." The princess toured high-tech programs during her eight-day visit and thanked Beijing for support in talent development.
Read more: Nation Thailand (princess quotes), FMPRC (Xi medal detail)
Chiang Mai Chokes Its Way to Number One
Wildfires burning for more than a week in northern Thailand pushed Chiang Mai to the top of IQAir's global pollution rankings. Visibility at the city's airport dropped as low as 1,200 meters on some days (an instrument landing requires an 800-meter minimum). The Department of Royal Rainmaking and Agricultural Aviation has been flying weather modification operations over Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lampang, Tak and Mae Hong Son since April 3 in an attempt to clear the air, apparently with little effect.
Read more: Nation Thailand (airport visibility), CNN (IQAir ranking)
That's all for this week, thanks for reading. Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back- hit reply and tell us what you think.
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