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Headlines:
A Cabinet Pre-Screened by the Treasury
Beijing Brings Gifts, Delhi Brings Handshakes
12 Percent Came Home
Rakhine Takeover Gets a Deadline
Outposts Fall, Bombs Rise
ASEAN's Courts Do What ASEAN's Diplomats Won't
Anwar Plays Both Sides of the Table
Kyiv Comes to Kabaw
Britain Slams the Door on Students
A Cabinet Pre-Screened by the Treasury
As previously reported, Min Aung Hlaing was sworn in as president on April 10, five years after his coup. What has received less attention is that at least 15 of the 44 cabinet members and regional chief ministers in the new government currently appear on Western sanctions lists, including defense minister General Tun Aung, accused of overseeing aerial bombardments that killed civilians, and home affairs minister Lt-Gen Nyunt Win Swe, who led the violent crackdown on Yangon protests in 2021. The 69-year-old gave the commander-in-chief post to General Ye Win Oo, his handpicked successor from military intelligence. Twenty-eight of the 30 Union ministers are current or former generals or members of the post-coup junta.
Sources: The Irrawaddy (ASEAN recognition), Cambodianess (regional attendance), Myanmar Now (sanctions breakdown), DVB (UCC details), Asialink (Ye Win Oo background)
Beijing Brings Gifts, Delhi Brings Handshakes
Jiang Xinzhi, a special envoy of Xi Jinping, met the newly inaugurated president on April 10 to let Naypyidaw know that commitments on the Belt and Road and border security cooperation remain in place. India sent Minister of State Kirti Vardhan Singh. New Delhi has gone from cautious engagement to active participation in the junta's legitimacy pageant over the past few months, and now joins Beijing in treating the general's sham election as a done deal; Western diplomats appear to have stayed home. China made the terms concrete the next da with the signing of an enhanced recovery deal for the Shapin-Kanni field for a Chinese oil firm (neither production capacity nor deal value was shared). The Union Minister called it a project with "immediate benefits," though he didn't specify for whom. Min Aung Hlaing thanked Beijing for "long-term and valuable assistance" and promised to protect Chinese personnel and projects.
Sources: People's Daily (Beijing framing), DVB (India's legitimization), Asian News Network (oil specifics)
12 Percent Came Home
Only 631 conscripts from the junta's first batch of 5,155 recruits have been discharged after finishing their mandatory two years of service, which ended April 8. That's 12 percent. Military defectors tracking the program say the rest were either killed in combat or have forcibly been kept in uniform, and they suspect even the small number released is being used as recruitment bait for families still deciding whether to turn over their sons. The regime won't say how many are dead. Most families hear nothing, leaving them to assume the worst. Conscription has now reached its 23rd round since the law took effect in February 2024; roughly 100,000 men and women have been pressed into service so far. The junta claims that those who finished training are now fulfilling their "responsibilities for national defense and security" in units nationwide but refuses to disclose casualty figures.
Source: DVB
Rakhine Takeover Gets a Deadline
The Arakan Army says it will control all of Rakhine State by the end of 2027. Commander-in-chief Maj-Gen Twan Mrat Naing said as much at the group's 17th anniversary ceremony. The AA has taken 14 of 17 townships since its began its push in November 2023, leaving only Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung remaining in junta hands. Kyaukphyu is a big deal because it's home to the Chinese-backed deep-water port that was supposed to anchor Beijing's access to the Indian Ocean. The AA was formed in 2009 with 26 members and one gun.
Sources: Myanmar Now (deadline), Mizzima (displacement)
Outposts Fall, Bombs Rise
Resistance forces seized two outposts in Bago Region and Mon State between April 7 and 12, killing 13 junta troops with help from the Karen National Liberation Army and All Burma Students' Democratic Front. The PDF and allied fighters took Bilin's Laykay outpost after five days of fighting that left five soldiers dead, 10 wounded, and two captured. At least 30 troops abandoned the Letyet outpost in Shwegyin Township after eight of their own were killed. In Longlone Township, a drone hit junta soldiers drinking and singing karaoke at a police station, reportedly killing two. The victories came at a cost. Junta airstrikes from April 1 to 5 damaged or destroyed at least 30 homes and two monasteries in Bilin, displacing more than 13,000 civilians from 13 villages. A separate rescue operation in Nyaunglebin freed more than 300 civilians the junta had been using as human shields, killing at least 10 junta troops and wounding 20, though 11 resistance fighters died in the effort. A Spectator correspondent embedded with resistance forces in Karenni State sees the same thing, that the revolution has lost momentum since the high-water mark of 2023, when liberation felt close and morale was high.
Sources: DVB (displacement), ReliefWeb (airstrike lethality), Spectator (momentum)
ASEAN's Courts Do What ASEAN's Diplomats Won't
Civil society groups in Indonesia and Timor-Leste have filed domestic genocide cases against Min Aung Hlaing, taking advantage of universal jurisdiction to try and prosecute what they say are crimes against humanity in courts outside the country where they took place. The strategy treats regional neighbors' courtrooms as tools that, despite optimistic hope from some quarters, ASEAN's summits never became: a challenge to the bloc's non-interference doctrine. For victims who've watched diplomatic forums produce almost nothing more than hot air, courts in Jakarta and Dili may provide what summits have not, and a path that doesn't require the cooperation of those accused.
Sources: Jakarta Post (possible paywall), Weekly Blitz (secondary source)
Anwar Plays Both Sides of the Table
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim met both Min Aung Hlaing and the National Unity Government's prime minister within a day of each other, and made both meetings public. Malaysia want a stop to the killing, free-flow of aid and a political transition. The junta's response was to hold elections and seat a military-controlled parliament. Now ASEAN may have a discipline problem, and needs to decide whether to hold the line on inclusive engagement or let a non-compliant regime reset the terms.
Source: The Edge Malaysia
Kyiv Comes to Kabaw
Indian authorities arrested six Ukrainians and one American accused of sneaking across the border to train resistance fighters, indicating that the civil war continues to pull in foreigners from unexpected corners. The India-Myanmar frontier's rugged terrain offers plenty of crossing points beyond official checkpoints, so it’s a common entry point for those looking to avoid detection.
Source: Frontier Myanmar
Britain Slams the Door on Students
We close this week with a report on the human cost of Britain's new visa brake, which came into effect March 26, and that bars students from Myanmar, Sudan, Cameroon, and Afghanistan from getting student visas. Naw Sai, 29, who escaped the junta to Thailand after studying in the US, had his PhD offer from LSE withdrawn before it was formalized. The anthropology program accepted his proposal on conflict and peacemaking out of about 120 other applications, only to pull it days later. The new policy is affecting an unknown number of accepted students, and there is no appeals process available to those who are impacted.
Source: Novara Media
That's all for this week, thanks for reading. Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back- hit reply and tell us what you think.
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