Thailand 20250912
Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
Court Jails Thaksin for a Year
Anutin Takes Power, Forms Cabinet
Baht Jumps to Four‑Year Peak
Confidence Falls to 32‑Month Low
Bangkok and Phnom Penh Cool Border
Aviation Watchdog Gives Top Marks
Digital Sector to Hit $95B
FTA Gains Almost $45B
Chinese Plants Arrive on Thai Shores
Energy: PTTEP Backs CCP; Bangchak Av Fuel
Anutin Pushes B1T Land Bridge
Gold Buying Rises on Strong Baht
LTR Visa Brings 7,000 Pros
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Court Jails Thaksin for a Year
Thailand’s Supreme Court ruled Thaksin Shinawatra had gamed his last prison visit by turning it into a hospital stay and ordered him to serve one year in actual prison. He first returned to Thailand in August 2023 after 15 years in self-exile; an eight-year sentence for graft and abuse of power was later commuted to one, but the court found Thaksin and his doctors deliberately prolonged his hospital stay with unnecessary procedures. He is the first former Thai premier to do time, a reversal of fortune that follows on the heels of his daughter's recent removal as prime minister.
Read more: Reuters (Political fall), Reuters (Court ruling), BBC (Political profile)
Anutin Takes Power, Forms Cabinet
Parliament chose Anutin Charnvirakul as Prime Minister on September 5, with 311 votes, in the wake of Paetongtarn Shinawatra's removal. Anutin takes the helm of a minority government that’s backed by the People’s Party, which demanded (in part-exchange for their support) a dissolution of parliament within four months for new elections. Anutin wasted no time appointing Ekniti Nitithanprapas as finance minister and Auttapol Rerkpiboon as energy minister. Anutin is perhaps most well-known as the driving influence behind Thailand’s 2022 cannabis decriminalization. He now has the opportunity to figure out how to overcome economic stagnation, fix border tensions with Cambodia, and get the writing of a new constitution underway.
Read more: Reuters (Economic plans), Financial Express (Profile), Yahoo News (Political context)
Baht Jumps to Four‑Year Peak
The Thai baht has appreciated about 8% against the dollar YTD, rising to less than 31.6 to the dollar - its strongest rate in four years. The increase in value is causing consternation among exporters who are struggling to compete. The Bank of Thailand says it will do its best to curb currency swings and to reduce gold’s influence on exchange rates.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Exporter concerns), Bangkok Post (Central bank response), Nation Thailand (Gold exports)
Confidence Falls to 32‑Month Low
While the Baht is finding new highs, Thai consumer confidence in August is down for the seventh consecutive month to its lowest level in 32 months. A survey shows that more than 7 in ten respondents are dealing with financial hardship, and more than half expect conditions to worsen in the next 6-12 months. Only 40% of Thai respondents said that they were fully able to afford all expenses last month, a rate that’s higher than levels reported in other Asia-Pacific countries. Prime Minister Anutin’s new government says that it hopes to revive the "Khon La Khrueng" co-payment stimulus program before the end of the year, but there’s talk that its benefits will be tailored specifically to official taxpayers instead of simply “citizens” this time around.
Read more: Reuters (Economic data), Bangkok Post (Consumer survey), Bangkok Post (Regional comparison)
Bangkok and Phnom Penh Cool Border
After five days of scrapping in July, Thailand and Cambodia continue to work to de-escalate tensions on their shared border. The most recent agreement includes commitments to pull back heavy weapons from forward positions and to create a coordination committee that will work on landmine clearance. The conflict has seriously battered border economies in seven northeastern Thai provinces - businesses are reporting collapsed revenues and trade at a virtual standstill. Officials plan to use a zoned approach to revive economic activity. The conflict has resulted in more than a million Cambodian migrant workers departing Thailand, complicating labor markets.
Read more: The Diplomat (Diplomatic agreement), Khao Sod English (Economic impact), Khao Sod English (Migrant workers)
Aviation Watchdog Gives Top Marks
Thailand's Civil Aviation Authority passed an International Civil Aviation Organisation audit with a score of 91.35%, well above the 70.5% global average. It notched 100% in aviation legislation and regulatory organization. This turnaround is a remarkable recovery from the ratings in 2015, when a red flag was raised on the back of a dismal 33.53% score. Thai airlines are ramping up their fleets, but there are warnings that not enough pilots are readily available to support anticipated expansion.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Safety audit), Thai PBS (Industry implications), The Star (Workforce plans)
Digital Sector to Hit $95B
Thailand's digital industry continues to grow. The Digital Economy Promotion Agency says that it expects digital services are going to be the star of the show through to 2027 with annual increases of up to 14%, and it foresees the hardware and smart devices industry will grow by as much as 7% yearly. A national AI Governance Practice Center is planned, and a DEPA/ Ericsson partnership is being formed to speed up 5G deployment in industry. The enterprise 5G market is forecast to grow past $2.5 billion by 2027.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Growth projections), Bangkok Post (AI initiatives), IT Wire (5G partnership)
FTA Gains Almost $45B
Thailand's trade benefits from free trade agreements reached 1.4 trillion baht ($44.79 billion) in the first half of 2025, up 10% compared to last year. The Department of Foreign Trade reported the biggest totals were a result of the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement ($15.73 billion), the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement ($12.62 billion), and the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement ($5.53 billion). Fresh durian, motor vehicles, synthetic rubber, unrefined platinum, and cane sugar were the main exports. Diplomats are making moves to try and get Thai citizens exempted from Schengen visa requirements in order to further improve EU trade; Thai tourists spent €1.6 billion in Europe in 2023.
Read more: Nation Thailand (FTA statistics), Parliament Magazine (Visa exemption request), Vietnam Plus (Import monitoring)
Chinese Plants Arrive on Thai Shores
WHA Corp, Thailand's largest factory developer, is working feverishly to build new industrial parks to accommodate Chinese manufacturers who are fleeing tariffs imposed as a result of US-China trade tensions. Six new projects in Thailand are being built out over 4,000 acres. Thailand's industrial property sector is outperforming so far this year thanks to clearer US tariff policies and a relatively stable foreign direct investment environment.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Chinese relocation), Bangkok Post (Industrial growth), Web Pro News (PCB manufacturing)
Energy: PTTEP Backs CCP; Bangchak Av Fuel
PTT Exploration and Production has made a final investment decision to move ahead with Thailand's first carbon capture and storage project at the Arthit field. The project has a budget of 10 billion baht ($320 million) over five years, and has capacity for a million metric tons of CO2 to be stored yearly (but it seems clear that going to take some time to ramp up to that number). The first injection is expected by 2028. The facility will use a combination of existing infrastructure and new facilities without disrupting the ongoing natural gas production in the field.
Read more: Rigzone (CCS project), Reuters (Aviation fuel), ABB (Energy transition)
Anutin Pushes B1T Land Bridge
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is keen on the 1-trillion-baht Land Bridge mega-project seeing the light of day to support the economy. The project is planned to connect two deep-sea ports via a Southern Economic Corridor between the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. Construction is expected to begin next year, with the first phase operational by 2030. If it gets built, this Public-Private Partnership with a 50-year concession will go a long way to helping Thailand keep its position as a regional trade hub. The government also says it is placing a high priority on the 3-Airport High-Speed Rail and phase 2 of the Thai-Chinese high-speed rail projects.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Project details), Travel and Tour World (Aviation hub plans), Nation Thailand (Rail cooperation)
Gold Buying Rises on Strong Baht
Thai gold demand is expected to rise by 10% this year for the fifth consecutive year of growth. The increases are being credited to the strengthening baht, which makes gold (relatively) cheaper, and the rising price of gold seemingly offering better returns than alternatives in times of political uncertainty. Thailand is among the world's top 10 gold buyers. YLG Bullion International says it sees global gold prices hitting $4,000 an ounce, with the price of local bars to be between 56,000–57,000 THB / baht (weight) by year-end.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Consumer demand), Bangkok Post (Global ranking), Khao Sod English (Cambodia exports)
LTR Visa Brings 7,000 Pros
Thailand's Long-Term Resident Visa program has attracted over 7,000 “high-quality” (lol) foreign professionals since its launch in late 2022, bringing in more than 23 billion baht ($725.5 million) in economic value. The LTR program is intended to appeal to four categories of worker: highly skilled professionals, work-from-Thailand professionals, wealthy global citizens, and wealthy pensioners. Professionals mostly come from Europe (42%), the United States (19%), Japan (9%), China (5%), and India (4%). Cabinet-approved improvements to program criteria in March 2025 have improved the program’s appeal, with applications from wealthy individuals doubling compared to the number of apps the year before.
Read more: Khao Sod English
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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